886
FXUS64 KLUB 191133
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
533 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday, some
   storms during the afternoon may become severe.

 - Locally heavy rainfall possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday
   morning.

 - Cooler to end the week with additional rain chances returning this
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

After days of highs topping out in the 80s for areas across the
region, we will finally begin to see a cooling trend as the pattern
begins to become unsettled bringing cooler and wetter conditions to
the South Plains region. Water vapor imagery currently depicts a
deep, elongated trough with an embedded closed low spiraling over
SOCAL. Through the short term period, this trough is expected to
translate through portions of the southern Desert Southwest,
promoting the continuation of moist southwesterly flow aloft across
the region. At the surface, moist southerly flow looks to be present
across our southeastern third of counties with a tongue to theta-e
advection stretching into portions of the southeastern Rolling
Plains. WTM stations show dewpoints just south of the FA climbing
rapidly. Given this increased surface moisture and the northward
expansion, areas across the southern SOuth Plains and Rolling Plains
could see low clouds develop by daybreak. Elsewhere, moisture looks
to remain limited with the bulk of moisture remaining east of the
dryline scooting eastward through the FA throughout the day
Wednesday. Dewpoints are progged to reach the 60s across much of the
areas east of the I-27 corridor while dewpoints remain confined in
the 40s and 50s west of the corridor. Due to the fact moisture
return looks to be highest across our eastern half of the FA, this
is where we expect the best chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Although we will potentially see isolated to scattered shower
development this morning, primarily across the Caprock lack thereof
moisture near the surface will likely keep much of the activity that
develops, if any high based, in the form of virga showers. Activity
begins to increase in coverage by the afternoon, as large scale
ascent associated with the H5 jet streak out ahead of the parent
trough begins to move into the region. This source of upper level
lift interacting with the moisture in place should be enough for
isolated to scattered shower activity. Despite cloud cover expected
to linger through much of the day, highs this afternoon will still
become unseasonably warm, in the 70s. Areas across the southeastern
Rolling Plains should see convective Ts reached by the peak heating
hours and with MUCAPE values on the order of 1200 J/kg to 1500 J/kg,
bulk shear magnitudes around 50 knots, in addition to MLLR around 7
to 8 C/km supports an environment capable of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. Main threats look to be large hail up to quarters and
strong gusts up to 60 mph. Coverage and intensity looks to increase
overnight, as the 850 mb LLJ ramps up and showers and storms are
able to grow upscale. This will lead to a threat for potentially
heavy rainfall which could lead to a few localized areas of flash
flooding concerns across low-lying/poor drainage areas. As for
temperatures overnight, expect similar lows in the mid 40s to lower
60s across the area as skies remain cloudy and precipitation begins
to increase in coverage Thursday morning. More on that in the
discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The upper level shortwave trough will begin to deamplify Thursday
morning, while approaching the region from the west, in response to
a reinforcing stronger closed low developing over the PacNW. The
shortwave trough will continue to eject northeast, becoming
negatively tilted, before opening up into an open wave feature by
the end of the day Thursday as the upper level trough and closed low
over the PacNW becomes the dominate system. At the surface, the warm-
moist southerly flow regime will persist across much of the state of
Texas. Moist southeasterly flow is expected to continue across the
eastern half of the FA as the surface low remains positioned across
eastern NM and the surface high remains parked to our east. This
surface low will begin to shift east as the upper level system
shifts east, which in turn should advance the dryline eastward, in
addition to the advancement of a Pacific front,  through the FA
Thursday afternoon. The uptick in moisture at the surface with
dewpoints progged in the upper 50s and 60s east of this boundary in
combination with the mid to upper level moisture moving in with the
upper level system should be enough to generate the continuation of
precipitation across the area Thursday. Along with better moisture
in place, there does look to be better large scale ascent in place,
that being from PV anomalies wrapping around the base of the upper
level shortwave to our north in combination with the low-level
converge boundary provided by the advancing dryline. Given the
potential for training thunderstorms, with activity expected to be
on and off Thursday morning through the afternoon, there remains the
potential for locally heavy rainfall at times given PWATS above the
100th percentile seasonal normal for this time of year. However, the
threat remains lower compared to the overnight Wednesday into
Thursday morning time period given faster storm motions expected.

We begin to dry out Thursday evening, as supportive jet dynamics
exit the region, and the return of drier westerly winds return at
the surface. Clearing conditions through the overnight period, along
with the slightly cooler airmass provided by the afternoon FROPA,
should keep lows cooler in the 30s and 40s. The cooler and drier
trend continues to close out the work week, before we see the upper
level pattern change once again. Ensembles continue to hint at the
reinforcing low moving into the western CONUS towards the end of the
week will bring us our next big shot of beneficial rainfall and
cooler weather. Deterministic guidance is in decent agreement
regarding the track of the system, slowing moving through portions
of the southern Desert Southwest and into the Big Country before
ejecting northeast. However, guidance is in disagreement with the
timing, with the GFS more progressive and the ECMWF showing a slower
evolution. Given the uncertainty we will leave NBM mentionable PoPs
beginning Saturday night in the forecast until we see better
agreement on the track of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

There remains a very slim chance of low CIGS making their way
close to the KLBB terminal later this morning. An approaching
upper level storm system will bring high chances of rain showers
and thunderstorms beginning early Thursday morning. There may be
periods of low CIGS/visbys with this activity as it moves through
the region but confidence is low in any forecast flight category
at the moment.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01