Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
385 FXUS64 KLUB 141734 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Record high temperatures possible through Saturday. - Precipitation chances and a slight cool down expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 I`m sorry to say, the hot temperatures are not over yet. The upper ridging established over much of the state of Texas this morning will persist through the rest of today before gradually shifting down stream on Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm through the afternoon to possible record breaking highs for both KLBB and KCDS. The current record high at KLBB for today is 85 degrees set in 1933. A high of 89 degrees is forecasted for the Lubbock airport today. The current record at KCDS is 88 degrees set in 1932. A high of 90s is forecasted for KCDS. Also, there is a possibility to tie or exceed the all-time high for Lubbock for the month of November with the current record set at 90 degrees in 2006. Southwesterly surface flow is expected to increase this afternoon in response to a surface low setting up over northeastern New Mexico, however will lighten through the evening and overnight hours. Elevated fire concerns continue through this evening due to hot temperatures, RH values in the lower teens, and dry fuels. Tonight will be quiet with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Possible record breaking high temperatures continue into Saturday as the upper ridging persists overhead. Although an upper trough pushing on shore over SoCal will finally give the upper ridging the push it needs to move downstream. Similar to today, the current high record set at KLBB is 85 in 1965 with a forecast high of 89 degrees. The high record for KCDS is 88 set in 1903 with a forecast high of 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 We will finally see a break in the hot temperatures for the long term forecast. A cold front will push southward through the region late Saturday through early Sunday. Northerly surface flow and and the upper trough swinging over the Intermountain West breaking down the upper ridging will cool temperatures for Sunday, although some southern portions of the region will still see highs in the lower 80s. Winds will gradually veer to the west overnight Sunday into Monday in response to a surface low developing just north of the CWA. This will keep temperatures above seasonal normal for Monday and Tuesday, luckily not as hot as over the weekend. We have some good news though! Widespread precipitation chances are possible by mid-next week. After the upper trough mentioned in the short term discussion moves off, an upper low will follow right behind it, tracking over western CONUS. However, models are in disagreement over the progression of this upper low. ECMWF keeps the upper low closed as it swings through the Central Plains. GFS opens the low where it elongates into a negatively tilted trough as it tracks over southwestern CONUS. Either progression supports widespread precipitation chances through the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Moderate westerly winds will weaken and shift to the southwest this evening through Saturday afternoon. There is a chance for LLWS near KCDS after midnight, however confidence is low at this time, therefore left out of TAF. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...10