Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
480 FXUS64 KLUB 162322 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 522 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Although cooler than previous days, unseasonably warm highs continue the first half of the week. - Widespread rain chances possible Wednesday and Thursday. - Cooler temperatures expected the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Northerly flow following the front from last night have already begun to veer with current surface observations showing easterly winds for much of the region. Surface winds will continue to veer to the south to southwest through this evening in response to a lee surface trough strengthening over Colorado. Tonight will be uneventful with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Surface winds will shift to the west overnight as the surface trough pushes eastward as an upper trough translated over the Central Plains. Winds are expected to pick up during the afternoon hours as the pressure gradient tightens with speeds up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible, especially over northern portions of the Caprock. Westerly surface flow will slightly increase temperatures with a wide range of highs expected Monday. On the Caprock can expect highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Off the Caprock will see highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The main focus for the long term package is cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation chances beginning mid-week. An upper trough will track south along the west coast of CONUS before turning eastward over the Desert Southwest through Tuesday. Upper flow will shift to the southwest with this approaching upper disturbance, pulling in subtropical moisture overhead. Tuesday is expected to be uneventful weather wise, but can expect mostly cloudy skies gradually filling in through the day. There is a slight chance for precipitation off the Caprock late Tuesday, however models indicate it will most likely remain to the south-southeast of our region. Models seem to be in better agreement with the upper level progression for the rest of the work week compared to previous forecast runs. By mid-week, the aforementioned upper trough will continue to trek eastward over the Four Corners region. Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to persist as the trough approaches the region. As the southwest flow aloft continues to pump in moisture, the set up of an upper jet streak will bring chances for widespread precipitation beginning Wednesday and continue through late Thursday. We will finally see around seasonal normal highs beginning Thursday and continue through the weekend thanks to the precipitation and cloud cover. Although the models are in better agreement with the upper level progression this forecast, slight differences in the position of the upper trough and the associated upper jet streak between the models remain. Therefore, we could possibly see a slight change to the forecast for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High chances of VFR are expected through the TAF period with breezy southwest winds on Monday afternoon. There is a small chance of a brief period of IFR CIGS/visbys at KCDS early Monday morning. However, at the moment, it looks as though this activity will remain east of the terminal. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01