Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
021 FXUS64 KLUB 181701 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1201 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon, primarily for the southern Rolling Plains. - Cooler temperatures Sunday behind a cold front. - Breezy westerly winds bring warmer temperatures and possible elevated fire weather conditions again Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Showers and thuderstorms have ended throughout the area as a potent mid-level trough has quickly departed off to the east. Mostly clear skies should persist through rest of the weekend. The main story for the remainder of today will be breezy westerly winds gradually veering to the NW ahead of an approaching cold front. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible over the next couple hours. This will allow for temperatures to recover into the 80s for many areas, especially off the Caprock. With humidities falling into the teens, elevated fire weather concerns are possible, particularly for the southern Rolling Plains where temperatures will be the warmest. Winds will diminish, but continue to veer to a northeasterly direction through the overnight hours. This cooler, dry air combined with mostly clear skies will help bring about coolest night in some time, with lows potentially approaching the freezing mark over the far SW Panhandle. A pleasant Sunday is expected. Winds will switch back to the south in the afternoon, but temperatures will still remain on the cooler side in the wake of the cold front, with highs generally in the mid- to-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 A broad upper trough will move in from the northwest causing the usual lee cyclogenesis in the Rockies on Monday. As the surface low develops and tracks eastward, gusty westerly surface winds will overspread our area on its south side. As of now, gusts could potentially reach the 30 mph and have been slightly increased from NBM. This will lead to the temperature roller coaster continuing, with the downsloping winds allowing for highs to reach the 90s for many areas, especially off the Caprock. As such, fire weather concerns will return for much of the area. Winds will switch back to northeasterly Monday evening as another cold front approaches, bringing Tuesday`s highs down by 10-15 degrees and closer to seasonal norms in the mid 70s. Southerly winds will return Wednesday and rising heights under an upper ridge bring an increase in temperatures back into the 80s. Thursday will see the next meaningful chance of precipitation as a trough moves in from the west. While it remains too far out to determine the finer details, it appears highest PoPs would be off the Caprock as the associated surface low becomes occluded. This should be followed by warmer and drier days under a trailing ridge. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Aviation: Morning IFR/MVFR conditions have eroded with VFR firmly in place. Have included the mention of LLWS(WS010/05045) at all terminals from 07Z-11Z. Winds between 15-20G25kts from the W are expected thru 20Z followed by a shift to the N then a shift to the NE with a decrease in intensity to 05-10kts. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...28