Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
871 FXUS64 KLUB 071705 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGE... Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Mild and dry through Thursday until a strong cold front brings chilly weather toward week`s end. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Clearing skies were taking charge this afternoon on the heels of a shortwave trough that overperformed with clouds and even some showers in the Friona area this morning. A chilly surface ridge centered near the Highway 83 corridor will peel east tonight ahead of light SSw winds which should keep lows from getting too cold. Am skeptical of the NAM`s fog potential in the Childress area Monday morning as this looks overdone for 3-6 degree dewpoint depressions. Aloft, swift NW flow and mostly clear skies carry into Monday as lee troughing delivers breezy southwest winds and highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 For the remainder of the week we remain locked under dry NW flow which will be host to a pair of cold fronts - the first arriving Wednesday followed by a more robust version late Thursday. Until these FROPAs, a very mild and breezy afternoon awaits Tuesday thanks to amplified lee troughing. NBM`s winds on Tuesday seem too soft for this pattern, so opted for its 75th percentile which aligns better with MOS. Lower thicknesses spill south on northerly winds for Wednesday followed by a quick rebound to WSW breezes overnight into Thursday. Thursday has potential to be the warmest day all week provided we see enhanced compressional warming ahead of a strong FROPA arriving later in the day. Am leery of the deterministic GFS`s and ECMWF`s weaker FROPA late Thursday followed by an arctic surge some 24 hours later. The NBM at least trended colder for Friday and Saturday which fits well with the more singular cold theme shown by the GEFS and to a lesser extent the EPS. With maxT standard deviations of 7 to 10 from Friday into Saturday, we`ll keep temps close to the mean this many days out until details become more clear. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Continued VFR with light winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...93