011
FXUS64 KLUB 150535
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1135 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions continue with another day of record
    breaking heat expected Saturday afternoon.

 - Slightly cooler next week, although still seasonably warm, with
   precipitation chances returning by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Saturday,
as the expansive upper level ridge continues to encompass much of
the region. Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave will continue to
translate eastward through the Canadian Provinces, which will
continue to result in the flattening of the upper level ridge. As
this upper level trough translates through the Great Lakes region,
it will in turn swing a backdoor front through the region which will
put an end to the hot temperatures as we gear into the new week
Sunday. As for Saturday, little to no change to thickness and height
values in addition to clear skies will lead to yet another hot day.
Winds will mostly prevail out of the west-southwest this afternoon,
becoming low-end breezy as the surface trough shifts east. Expect
these winds to aid in WAA into the FA once again with 850mb
temperatures around 19C to 21C, suggesting highs in the 80s to lower
90s. Cooler, but still unseasonably warm, highs will be fixated
across our northern counties as a FROPA begins to track into the
region. Latest hi-resolution guidance has this front moving into the
far southern Texas Panhandle around noon, continuing its track
southward through the FA by the evening. As the front passes
through, winds will veer out of the north brining in cool air
advection in its wake. Unfortunately, due to the current timing of
the front, much of the FA will see highs near record breaking
territory Saturday. Including Lubbock (85 degrees in 1965), with a
forecasted high of 90 degrees along with Childress (88 degrees in
1903), with a forecasted high in 88 degrees. Given the forecasted
high at Lubbock, we will see yet another opportunity for the warmest
daytime high ever recorded in Lubbock (90 degrees) during the month
of November. Clear skies overnight and light northerly winds will
allow for max radiational cooling with lows in the lower 40s to low
50s.

Fire weather concerns will remain elevated to near-critical Saturday
afternoon as west-southwest winds become slightly breezy. Strongest
winds are expected to occur during the morning hours, around 10 to
20 mph before easing slightly through the afternoon, veering out of
the north as a FROPA begins to pass through. While temperatures
climb well above normal and minimum RH values range in the low to
upper teens, combined with ERC values in the 70th to 90th percentile
support an environment of receptive fuels and the potential for
rapid fire spread with any ignitions. Therefore, a Rangeland Fire
Danger statement is in effect through 5 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The upper level ridge axis will shift east to start the long-term
period as a result of a shortwave trough translating northeast
through the Desert Southwest. This will lead to cooler, although
still seasonably warm for November standards, conditions to start
the new week.

Post-frontal northerly winds will continue Sunday morning, before
veering out of the southeast throughout the afternoon in response to
a surface low centering over eastern NM. The upslope component to
the wind, combined with the cooler airmass still in place will keep
highs on the "cooler" side with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
The shortwave trough will track northeast into the Central Plains by
the start of the work week as a cutoff low moves onshore the
California coast. The surface low will shift north into the Central
Plains in response, allowing west winds at the surface to prevail
across the region Monday. The tightening pressure gradient across
the region will lead to breezy conditions with wind speeds around 15
to 20 mph, especially across northern portions of the FA. Although
the passage of this system remains dry, we will likely see cooler
conditions continue Monday and Tuesday for at least the western
half of the CWA with highs in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
While the eastern half sees highs in the low to mid 80s. Ensembles
continue to hint at the potential for cooler and wetter
conditions by mid-week as the upper level cutoff low over
California tracks east into the Desert Southwest and potentially
into the West Texas region. As of now, deterministic models are a
bit all over the place in regards to the evolution of the system.
The ECMWF continues to portray a more northerly and faster track
of the system, while the GFS depicts a slower more southerly route
that also looks to be a bit more amplified. Despite the
disagreement in models, both solutions continue to support the
potential for widespread precipitation across the area for
Wednesday and Thursday of next week. However, the finer details
remain uncertain and will continue to be evaluated as models come
into better agreement in the coming days. For now, will opt to
keep NBM widespread mentionable PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR will persist through the TAF period. A cold front will move
through the area Saturday evening towards the end of this TAF period
shifting light winds to the north.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01