Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
737 FXUS64 KLUB 301741 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Well below average temperatures expected this afternoon with cloudy skies. - Temperatures gradually warming into mid-week, before falling again Wednesday with possible precipitation chances on Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Very cold temperatures will continue through Monday with a shallow cold air mass remaining in place. A VFR status deck will slowly lower through the rest of the afternoon into late Monday morning before dissipating. The cloud cover will keep conditions cold this afternoon but may also allow temperatures from falling too much overnight tonight. Cold air advection will persist through the nighttime hours with a 1036mb surface ridge moves from the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. Low status is expected to move off east of the area as low level winds return to the southwest to west. Clearing is anticipated to occur by late Monday morning or early afternoon giving way to full sun. A very brief period of return flow will occur Monday afternoon before a reinforcing shot of cold air moves through during the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest morning this week following the reinforcing shot of colder air and a 1022mb surface ridge overhead. The maximum temperature forecast for Tuesday is not clear at the moment. A short wave trough will move from the Pacific Northwest southeastward into the Intermountain West. This will in turn generate a surface response in the form of cyclogenesis in northeastern New Mexico. The surface pressure gradient will greatly increase by the afternoon on Tuesday bringing 20-25kt southwest winds. Guidance wants to rapidly warm temperatures with the strong downsloping winds. However, models historically erode these very cold air masses too quickly even under strong downsloping conditions. Therefore, blended guidance temperatures were nudged down for Tuesday afternoon. The surface cyclone will slowly move east into Wednesday but also dragging another cold front through early in the day on Wednesday. Confidence continues to remain low in precipitation chances on Thursday and Friday. The same short wave as mentioned above is forecast on an uncertain track for the second half of the week. Guidance has not been consistent on the track of this system and thus has led to a low confidence forecast. Ensemble guidance contains high spread in its solution as well. Blended guidance continues to show a chance of precipitation beginning early Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday morning. Regarding precipitation type, a wintry mix may be possible in the region. Temperatures will certainly be cold enough for snow but the blended guidance is showing a potential for freezing precipitation. Just going by the forecast thickness values, there is some merit to freezing precipitation with a very shallow cold air mass in place. However, we will not put too much stock in any one forecast precipitation type this far out in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 VFR overcast will continue to lower into MVFR this afternoon at KLBB and KPVW, with a later onset at KCDS. Confidence in CIGs lowering into IFR by Monday morning continues to increase, and it is possible that CIGs lower into LIFR at KLBB and KPVW. There will be a potential for in-cloud icing through the stratus layer throughout the course of the TAF period. CIGs are forecast to erode by early Monday afternoon, with VFR returning. Light winds will continue to veer southeastward otherwise. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...09