Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
669 FXUS64 KLUB 022312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue through the weekend. - A pattern change is possible during the early to middle portion of next week which may bring cooler weather and increased rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Large-scale mid/upper level ridging remains in place over the south- central CONUS resulting in a continuation of dry and very warm weather across West Texas. Today and Friday will be the warmest days of the next several with highs easily reaching into the low to mid 90s today and upper 80s to low 90s Friday. A bit of moisture still remains trapped beneath the ridge, so we will once again see an increase in cumulus cloud cover with peak heating this afternoon and again Friday. An isolated high-based shower may briefly develop especially over the TX Panhandle either afternoon, but with chances for measurable rain still near zero given the dry subcloud layer which will remain in place. Despite temperatures being about 10 to 15 degrees above normal, highs will remain safely below record levels today and Friday. Tonight, expect another mild overnight period with mainly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 This weekend, the upper ridge responsible for our recent stretch of very warm weather will deamplify in response to deepening mid/upper level troughing initially centered over the Great Basin. Southwesterly flow aloft will consequently increase, resulting in a couple of relatively breezy days on Saturday and Sunday as lee surface troughing deepens east of the Rockies. Midlevel height decreases should bring a slight reduction in temperatures, but highs over the weekend are still expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with dry conditions continuing area-wide. Next week, model consensus suggests that southwest flow aloft will continue over our area with broad troughing set to persist over the western CONUS as weak ridging builds over the Gulf coast. Although the beginning of the week is likely to still be dry and relatively warm, most models continue to push a cold front southward through the plains states midweek in response to a series of shortwaves over the midwest. The exact timing of this front and how far south it makes it are uncertain, but ensemble consensus indicates that a period of cooler weather with chances for showers is possible during the middle to late portion of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Continued VFR with light southerly winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...93