885
FXUS64 KLUB 232333 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms today, with possible severe storms
   mainly over the southern Rolling Plains.

 - Quiet conditions from Monday through the remainder of week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Updated to add areas of fog for most areas this evening and
overnight, before improving after midnight from W-E with the
passage of a Pacific cold front. Storm-wise, we`ll likely cancel
the SVR 638 ahead of schedule once current storms become more
elevated and lose their intensity which appears to be happening
ahead of schedule as of this writing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A upper cutoff low will track across the Four Corners region today.
This will put portions of our area in the prime PVA region
downstream of its axis. Radar already indicates widespread shower
activity across the area. As a low-level jet increases in magnitude
this afternoon, further lift will potentially lead to the
development of severe thunderstorms, particularly over the southern
Rolling Plains where PWAT values look to exceed one inch. Steering
flow will be relatively fast moving, however given the setup with
mostly unidirectional flow at all levels, a few training
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out and thus heavy rain/localized
flooding are a threat along with quarter-sized hail. Any severe
storms should commence later this afternoon and persist into the
evening. That all said, severe weather should be mostly confined to
this aforementioned area. Otherwise showers and non-severe storms
are expected for the rest of the CWA over the same time period. All
precipitation should be over by around midnight, with skies clearing
west to east overnight. Lows will fall into the 30s to the west
where cloud cover will be less, and in the upper 40s off the Caprock
clouds will be more stubborn to move out before sunrise.

As the upper low tracks into the Rockies, weak lee cyclogenesis will
occur and a surface low will develop to our north on Monday. Nearly
due westerly downsloping winds and abundant sunshine will bring a
return to above-average temperatures, with highs near 70 off the
Caprock and mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A generally uneventful week remains expected. An upper trough will
descend into the northern Great Plains by Tuesday and its associated
surface cold front will move across the area during the day. Winds
will switch to the NE by afternoon, however highs will only be
around 3-5 degrees cooler than Monday. Coolest temperatures will
occur Wednesday with the colder airmass settling in despite surface
winds gradually switching back to a southerly direction. Highs will
only generally reach the mid 50s. Weak ridging and continued
southerly flow Thursday and Friday will bring a return of above-
average temperatures into the mid-to-upper 60s. A trailing trough
may bring a more active pattern next weekend, however long-range
models currently indicate much of the associated precipitation
remaining off to our east at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Widespread stratus this hour of MVFR and VFR varieties is likely
to collapse to IFR or lower this evening from W-E with the passage
of a few SHRA and TS. Dense fog is also possible, but opted to
keep visbys around 2SM until trends show otherwise. As a cold
front glides east after midnight, fog and stratus will clear to
VFR ahead of breezy WNW winds developing by late morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93