401
FXUS64 KLUB 100531
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1231 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Warm and dry conditions will continue today through Saturday
  with some locally elevated fire danger possible on Saturday
  afternoon.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday and continue through early
  next week with relatively cool temperatures expected on Monday
  behind a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue today. Upper ridging remains
stagnant over the region. A lee surface trough over Colorado will
keep light southerly winds in place over West TX through the day.
Slight thickness increases below the upper ridging and mostly
sunny skies will warm highs today just a couple of degrees
compared to yesterday. Much of the region will see highs in the
80s while some areas off the Caprock could see highs in the lower
90s. An upper trough will swing over the Pacific NW this evening.
As the trough gradually translates eastward, the upper ridging
over Texas will begin to move southeast shifting upper flow aloft
to the southwest. Tonight will be quiet with lows in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Mid to high level clouds will fill in over much of
the Caprock and portions off the Caprock in response to
subtropical moisture ushering in above the region as the upper
level flow shifts southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The main focus for the long term package is the possible elevated
fire conditions this weekend and the return of precipitation the
beginning of next week. The aforementioned upper troughing will
continue to translate over the Intermountain West further pushing
the upper ridging to the southeast of our region. Southwesterly flow
aloft will prevail through the first half of next week as the
upper ridging remains to the southeast and a secondary upper
trough deepens over the western CONUS. At the surface, a
deepening lee surface trough over eastern CO will tighten the
pressure gradient increasing southerly winds over the weekend.
Wind speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will be
possible. Breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures with
highs in the 80s to lower 90s bring possible elevated fire weather
conditions to the region mainly on Saturday. Precipitation
chances will return Sunday in response to increased Pacific
moisture aloft with the southwesterly flow. A cold front is
progged to track southward into the region Monday prolonging
shower and thunderstorm chances through early Tuesday morning. A
wide range of highs on Monday are possible with upper 60s over
northwestern zones and mid 80s over southeastern zones. However,
timing and how far south the front will track is uncertain at the
moment, therefore will keep NBM temperatures as is this forecast
package. By mid next week, models indicate the upper ridging will
build back over the region, drying out conditions and warming
temperatures again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR and light south winds will continue through this TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30