Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
982 FXUS64 KLUB 070232 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 832 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 832 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Patchy fog is expected across portions of the Rolling Plains through Sunday morning. - Dry conditions and above seasonal normal temperatures expected next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 832 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Surface observations and satellite trends continue to suggest that low stratus and fog will continue to move westward into the Rolling Plains through the remainder of the night. The forecast has been updated accordingly to include a fog mention for the Rolling Plains through 07/12Z (6 AM CST) Sunday. Sincavage && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Southwesterly winds have already ramped up, especially on the Caprock, in response to the development of a lee surface cyclone. Some WTM stations on the Caprock have measured wind speeds above 30 mph and gusts at or just above 40 mph. Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through later this afternoon, however are expected to remain just below Wind Advisory Criteria. Although, some localized areas could experience Wind Advisory level speeds. With breezy winds comes the possibility for blowing dust. Patchy blowing dust will be possible this afternoon across the Caprock where the strongest winds are expected. WAA from the gusty southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies will allow current temperatures in the 50s to continue to warm to the 60s to lower 70s across the region. Winds are expected to decrease this evening as the surface low pushes southeast, weakening the pressure gradient. Concurrently, as the low pushes southeast of the CWA, a weak cold front will push southward through the region. Light northerly winds behind the front will prevail overnight and through most of Sunday. Increasing dewpoints behind the front and moderate northerly winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 20s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to lower 40s over southern Rolling Plains. Weak CAA will cool temperatures Sunday to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s expected across the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 No change to the long term forecast with warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions. Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the work week as back-toback troughs translate over the Great Lakes region and upper ridging builds over the Pacific, just off the coast of SoCal. Could see some breezy south- southwesterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday as a lee surface trough is expected to develop, tightening the pressure gradient each afternoon. Prevailing southwesterly winds will allow temperatures to warm to the 60s and 70s for much of the work week. Models indicate a cold front will push through the region sometime Thursday. This should cool temperatures back to seasonal normal with highs in the 50s for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Will add in a three hour period of LIFR conditions at KCDS via a TEMPO group as the stratus field across southwestern Oklahoma advects eastward toward a surface low located vicinity of Childress. Previous discussion (508 PM CST): Will run with VFR conditions this TAF cycle. There is a low to moderate chance of a brief period of stratus and/or fog at KCDS as low level moisture wraps in behind a cold front late this evening. Diminishing wind speeds will occur at KLBB and KPVW early this evening ahead of said front. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...09 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07