Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
597 FXUS64 KLUB 071731 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1131 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 - Strong, northerly winds are expected following the passage of a polar cold front Saturday morning. - Low temperatures in the middle-upper 20s are forecast across most of the Caprock and Rolling Plains Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Quiet weather will continue for the rest of today through Saturday morning. Northerly winds will slowly diminish late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Surface winds will shift to the south around midnight as the surface high continues pushing eastward across Oklahoma, and then to the west before sunrise Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. An upper shortwave trough will develop over southern Alberta this afternoon. This shortwave will phase with the main upper low over Hudson Bay while also eroding an upper ridge over the the Central Rockies. This shortwave will push the front southward fairly quickly during the overnight hours. The front should be south of the FA by noon Saturday and will bring windy conditions immediately after its passage. Progged winds from the NBM appear to be low given the strength of the front and resulting 3 mb/hour pressure rises, and winds reflected in the forecast have been increased. The actual timing of the front will affect high temps Saturday with a faster front resulting in cooler high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 Winds will remain out of the north through most of Sunday thanks to the Hudson Bay upper low amplifying and pushing southward into the Mid West. An upper ridge will amplify over the western COUNUS during this time and will keep upper flow out of the north over the FA. The resulting highs for Sunday will be on the cool side, struggling to reach into the low 50s across our northern Zones. Surface high pressure will settle over the Central Plains Sunday night into Monday morning with the resulting surface ridging reaching from as far north as Ontario to as far south as central Mexico. This will allow winds to become light and allow temps to drop into the 20s area wide Monday morning, the first hard freeze of the season for many areas. The forecast beyond Monday remains fairly benign. The upper low over the eastern CONUS will move back over Hudson Bay with upper ridging remaining over the western CONUS. With no significant cold fronts expected, highs will warm into the mid 70s/low 80s through the week with surface winds remaining out of the south to southwest at 15 mph or less each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025 The cold front passed through the region this morning leaving breezy northerly winds behind it that will continue through the afternoon, however are expected to weaken this evening. Another cold front will push through the region Saturday morning bringing gusty northerly winds to all three TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...51