Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
023 FXUS64 KLUB 090603 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Very mild and breezy Tuesday ahead of a cold front early Wednesday morning. - Brisk winds are expected Wednesday following the passage of a polar cold front. - A weakening Arctic cold front will arrive Friday morning, with a secondary front arriving Sunday and much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 All was quiet this night on the plains with nary a cloud found. The 10 PM surface analysis had a surface trough bisecting the forecast area and this feature will remain largely stationary through the day on Tuesday under continued NW flow. The trough will become better defined by Tuesday afternoon as downslope flow and diurnal heating ramp up, but am skeptical of the NAM`s weaker winds during the day owing to its higher dewpoints and diffuse trough structure. Opted to keep with breezier speeds around 20 mph for much of the Caprock as we expect deeper mixing in this continued very warm and dry pattern. Roughly 1000 miles to our north, a textbook Alberta Clipper will race across North Dakota during the day before reaching western Minnesota by sunset. While this low`s parent trough will remain too far from our domain, we will see its cold front enter our picture during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday with breezy north winds. However, the coolest air is not expected until after sunrise so overnight lows should stay mild on steady WNW breezes. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Brisk, northerly winds are expected Wednesday following the passage of a cold front earlier in the morning. The airmass trailing the front will be of polar origin and associated with an Alberta Clipper system moving across the Great Lakes and Corn Belt regions. Winds were raised from the NBM and aligned with the recent MOS output due to moderate pressure rises of around 6 mb/3 hr persisting through the early afternoon hours. While CAA will be moderating, the already very cold airmass and snowpack in the northern U.S. and Canada leads to the thinking that temperatures Wednesday will be cooler than the NBM prognostication. Therefore, highs were lowered, with a weight applied from the raw MOS guidance (CONSRaw), which keeps highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will veer southward by Thursday morning, as the 1020 mb surface high rotates into central N TX prior to sunrise. Geopotential height tendencies will become slightly positive Thursday, as the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific Ocean sloshes eastward and the shortwave trough associated with the Alberta Clipper becomes vertically-stacked as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes. Thursday is still expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs about 15 degrees above seasonal norms and peaking in the lower-middle 70s amidst light winds. A weakening Arctic cold front will arrive Friday morning, and while the front will have been of Arctic origin, the CAA associated with it will be substantially modified. This is due to the base of the large-scale trough and the respective cold core low remaining stretched out over the northern Great Plains and the Great Lakes region, enabling an earlier start to frontolysis as it moves southward into the southern Great Plains. There still remains a spread in the high temperatures among the global NWP guidance for Friday, but it has converged somewhat compared to the past 24-48 hours, with the lower-bound high within 10 degrees now versus 20+ degrees days prior. NBM highs are on the warmer side of the envelope and remain intact for this prognostication, but adjustments may be necessary in forthcoming cycles as NWP guidance converges on the timing and strength of the front. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for Saturday, with a secondary, stronger front to arrive Sunday which will be accompanied by much cooler temperatures. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR with light winds becoming westerly at 15-20 knots at LBB, less elsewhere. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...93