Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
807 FXUS64 KLUB 092321 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 521 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Chilly tonight with sub-freezing overnight lows expected across the forecast area Monday morning. - Warmer, but still seasonably cool Monday before a subtle warming trend throughout the week. - Cooler and wetter conditions possible by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Cooler and breezy conditions will continue this afternoon with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s in addition to breezy northerly winds around 15 to 20 mph. Winds will begin to lighten this evening as the pressure gradient begins to relax. CAA in place from yesterdays FROPA combined with light winds overnight and clear skies will lead to max radiational cooling overnight, allowing overnight lows to drop into the lower 20s to lower 30s. By the looks of it, much of the FA could see lows at or just below the freezing mark. Monday, we will begin to see temperatures warm slightly as surface winds veer out of the southwest as a result of a lee surface trough developing to our north. Winds will become breezy across the Caprock once again with speeds around 15 to 20 mph as we see pressure gradient rises across the FA. Overall, temperatures will only rise slightly as thickness and height values remain similar to that of previous days as the synoptic pattern experiences little to no change with the upper level low dominates much of eastern CONUS and the ridge remains parked over the Desert Southwest. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 The long term forecast package remains on track with previous forecasts, with the main theme being warming temperatures and quiet weather through the work week. While we may seen the return of slightly cooler and potentially wet conditions by the weekend. By the start of the extended period the FA will remain underneath NW flow aloft as the upper level low to our easts continues to translate through the NE CONUS while the upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest begins to deamplify as a result of an approaching system over the Pacific. Throughout the work week, we will continue to see this upper level ridge, although weaker compared to previous days, shift east into the region. As this happens, we will see NW flow aloft prevail as thickness and heights subtly increase across the region. In combination with surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies and mostly clear skies will allow for daytime highs to increase each afternoon with highs steady in the 70s and 80s Tuesday through Friday. Ensemble along with deterministic guidance continues to hint at a pattern change towards the end of the week into the weekend, as an upper level trough and associated low moves into the western CONUS. In turn, the upper level ridge will shift east allowing flow aloft to become more southwesterly throughout the weekend. Moisture will therefore be on the rise, as moist subtropical moisture begins to pump into the region via the southwest flow. Depending on how this system evolves, we could see enough lift and moisture for a few scattered showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two. However, it remains way to early to get into the overall specifics, especially with deterministic models not in line with the positioning and timing of the low as it approaches the West Texas region. Will opt to maintain NBM until details become clearer in the coming days. Additionally, the return of cooler temperatures will be possible as an associated front passes through but again will be dependent on the evolution of this system. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR will prevail area-wide throughout this TAF period. North winds this evening will become light and variable overnight, then increase out of the south-southwest on Monday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30