Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
710 FXUS64 KLUB 101103 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 503 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 - Only a bit warmer today with most locations seeing highs in the lower 60s with a steady south to southwest breeze. - Above-average temperatures and dry conditions through Friday. - Possible pattern change with more active weather by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 The center of an impressive mid/upper level trough axis currently over the Great Lakes region will slowly shift eastward over the next 24 hours as secondary shortwave troughing morning over the PacNW flattens the ridge currently in place over the desert southwest. After a calm and chilly start to the day, surface flow will gradually strengthen and turn generally southwesterly in response to a modest lee surface trough axis stretching from SE CO into E NM. Despite the downslope flow component and continued clear skies, temperatures will not increase too dramatically compared to Sunday as sfc-500mb layer thicknesses remain suppressed given the deep trough to our east. Highs this afternoon are therefore only expected to peak in the lower 60s which is a couple of degrees below average for this time of year. Tonight, southwest surface winds will persist which will keep overnight temperatures on the relatively mild side with lows mainly in the upper 30s and low 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Tuesday will see a return of warmer temperatures as the upper trough responsible for the cooler conditions over the past couple of days will be displaced by a building ridge to the west. Upper northerly flow will weaken and heights increase into the 580s Dm. A shortwave moving over the Rockies will lead to weak lee cyclogenesis in the Rockies and combined with the compression ahead of the associated surface cold front will bring an increase of southwesterly winds during the afternoon hours, potentially gusting near 25 mph. The resultant strong warm advection will allow for well above-average high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. The aforementioned cold front will move through later Tuesday into Wednesday, however although NE surface winds will return in its wake, they will be relatively light and highs will only fall by about 5 degrees from Tuesday. The ridge axis will move overhead on Thursday and SW winds will return. Highs in the 80s are expected for most areas. A pattern change looks to occur thereafter. Southwesterly flow aloft will develop Friday ahead of deep upper trough tracking eastward over the Mountain West. GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles are in significantly better agreement than yesterday with the latter model caving to the more progressive GFS. As a result, although the trough axis will pass across the region on Saturday, much of the greatest vorticity advection and forcing will be well off to the east. With the current orientation of the trough almost becoming negatively titled as well as very fast upper steering flow, the majority of the associated precipitation looks to develop along the I-35 corridor. That said, trailing shortwaves behind the main trough axis may trigger some shower activity late Saturday and PoPs have been retained in the latest forecast. The bigger issue for our area would be the possible strong winds with downsloping surface westerlies and higher winds aloft mixing down. While the LLJ is certainly not the strongest we have seen, we will continue to monitor how everything evolves through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...07