569
FXUS64 KLUB 131711
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1111 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - High temperature records are in jeopardy this afternoon, Friday, and
   Saturday.

 - Cooler weather is expected by early next week, with low-end windy
   conditions forecast Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, longwave ridging persists across the Lower
48, with its apex beginning to emerge over the Rocky Mountains and
into the Great Plains. Large-scale subsidence will continue to
dominate the entire region, with near-record high temperatures
forecast at CDS and LBB today. At the surface, a weak cyclone was
located near CDS, with a diffuse trough branching southwestward
towards LUV. Winds transition to the west on the backside of the
surface trough while backing towards the southwest most of the
Rolling Plains. As cyclogenesis continues, the surface trough will
gradually sharpen and begin its transition into a dryline by late
tonight. Winds will remain light otherwise this afternoon, although
intense dry-bulbing will occur across most of the CWA as the apex of
the ridge translates eastward over W TX. High temperatures for this
afternoon were raised substantially from the previous assessments
and aligned with the NBM 90th percentile, with highs expected to
peak in the middle-upper 80s across most of the CWA. After sunset,
the light, westerly winds will remain intact, with Friday morning
lows ranging from near 40 degrees along the NM state line and into
the lower 50s for the sliver of locales east of the dryline where
better retention of moisture prevents more-efficient cooling.

Persistence forecasting has been applied to Friday, with even hotter
conditions expected area-wide as the ridge continues to amplify
while centering over the Great Plains. A sharpening of the dryline
will occur in the Rolling Plains, with cyclogenesis continuing in
the vicinity of CDS. Intense dry-bulbing is expected to the west of
the dryline, and highs were also raised to align with the NBM 90th
percentile. Record highs are forecast at CDS and LBB, with highs
expected to breach 90 degrees in the Rolling Plains. Despite the
presence of a sharp dryline and a well-defined zone of convergence
nearest the surface low, thunderstorms will not develop Friday
afternoon. Fire weather concerns will also be limited by the lack of
stronger winds Friday afternoon.
________________________________

High temperature records for Thursday, November 13th; and Friday,
November 14th:

The record high temperatures for today at CDS and LBB are 87 and 82
degrees, respectively; and each were set in 1973. Highs of 85 and 87
degrees are forecast forecast at CDS and LBB this afternoon.

The record high temperatures for Friday at CDS and LBB are 88 and 85
degrees, respectively; and each were set in 1932 and 1933. Highs of
89 and 88 degrees are forecast at CDS and LBB Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Dry and very warm weather will continue into Saturday, followed by a
gradual cooling trend early next week. At the beginning of the
period, an intense, shortwave trough will dive southeastward across
south-central Canada and towards the Great Lakes region and modulate
the amplitude of the ridging over W TX. Farther west, a shortwave
trough, with an embedded closed low, will become cut-off to the west
of the Pacific Coast. As the longwave ridge deamplifies over the
Lower 48, a shorter-wave ridge will shift east-northeastward towards
the southern High Plains. A slight change to the surface pattern is
forecast to occur Saturday, with a pre-frontal surface trough moving
in from the north and ahead of the weakening synoptic-scale front
propagating southward across the Great Plains. The dryline will
remain intact across the Rolling Plains, with the respective surface
low in rotating farther northeast into central OK. The arrival of
the pre-frontal surface trough will shift winds towards the
northwest in the far southern TX PH, with winds prevailing out of
the west-southwest elsewhere across the CWA. Highs will be a bit
cooler in the far southwestern TX PH, with near-record highs
forecast otherwise at CDS and LBB Saturday afternoon.

A gradual cooling trend will commence following the passage of the
weakening cold front heading into Sunday, with much cooler weather
forecast early next week as the Pacific cold front moves through the
region Monday. Low-end windy conditions are forecast to develop
following the passage of the front Monday, as a large-scale,
cyclonic jetlet emerges over the Great Plains. Winds were raised to
align closer to the MEX/ECX guidance, which handles W TX wind events
well compared to NBM. Global NWP guidance continues to indicate that
the high-amplitude troughing pattern will persist over the western
U.S. by the middle of next week, with low PoPs reflected in the
official forecast by the tail-end of the period.
________________________________

High temperature records for Saturday, November 15th, 2025:

The record highs for Saturday at CDS and LBB are coincidentally 88
and 85 degrees, respectively; and each were set in 1903 and 1965.
Highs of 87 degrees are forecast at CDS and LBB Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR next 24 hours, with light winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09