051
FXUS64 KLUB 111127
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
527 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Very mild today ahead of a cold front early Friday morning.

 - Mild weather is expected Friday and Saturday.

 - Brisk winds and much colder temperatures are forecast Sunday
   following an Arctic cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Southerly winds were well underway this night on the heels of a
surface high exiting toward ABI. As lee troughing sharpens over
eastern NM through the day, surface winds will veer more westerly
while winds in the 850-700 mb layer turn WNW and advect a very warm
plume of air our way. The result will be a very mild day with highs
in the low/mid 70s across the board under full sun. Wind-wise,
most models have dialed back on the breezy potential today due to an
uptick in dewpoints that suppress deeper mixing. These higher Td`s
(upper 20s) were noted in eastern NM at 10 PM Wednesday and will
spread east through the afternoon. Even so, NBM winds this afternoon
look a bit too conservative so opted to raise these closer to 15 mph
on the Caprock. Aloft, NW flow will be host to a weak shortwave
trough Thursday night that drags the lee trough across the forecast
area ahead of a cold front before daybreak - although this will be
nowhere as gusty as our recent FROPA less than 24 hours ago.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A few minor tweaks have been made to the extended forecast, but it
remains on track otherwise. At the beginning of the period, the
mid/upper-levels will feature a broad, longwave trough carved out
over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., with a subtropical ridge
expanding into the Great Basin. The CWA will be located beneath the
left entrance-region to a particularly intense jet stream, with a
300 mb jet streak approaching 150 kt over the northern Great Plains
and the Canadian Prairie. Several series of shortwave troughs and
perturbations are expected to translate through the upshear tranche
of the trough, with the first of two Arctic cold fronts moving
through the region Friday. However, as mentioned in prior forecasts,
this Arctic cold front will be nearly bereft of CAA typically
observed with a cA airmass, although highs were lowered a bit due to
the effects of adiabatic expansion from the northeasterly/upslope
winds post-FROPA. Frontolytical processes will have already been
underway prior to the front approaching, with the northeasterly
breeze diminishing following the decoupling of the post-frontal
boundary-layer. Winds will continue to veer throughout the night
into Saturday, and temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s and
lower 70s for most of the CWA by solar noon. The exception will be
across the far southeastern TX PH, where highs in the lower-middle
60s are forecast. A pre-frontal surface trough is forecast to move
through the CWA Saturday afternoon, with the attendant surface low
rotating into the far southern TX PH. Therefore, winds in the
Rolling Plains should remain backed to the south most of the day
while remaining veered to the west-southwest-to-west on the Caprock.
Winds were raised from the NBM for Saturday, primarily across the
Caprock, as the pre-frontal cyclone begins to deepen beneath a
shortwave perturbation quickly translating southeastward over W TX.

A well-defined PV anomaly originating from a vertically-stacking
cyclone over the northern waters of the Pacific Ocean is forecast to
propagate about the apex of the subtropical ridge, the latter of
which will be centered over the Great Basin by Sunday. As the PV
anomaly emerges into the downshear tranche of the ridge Saturday, it
will phase with the shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes
region and increase its concavity. The net result of this will allow
a strengthening post-frontal high, at or around 1044 mb, to rotate
southward into the north-central Great Plains and Corn Belt by late
Saturday night. The attendant Arctic cold front, or in this case, a
classic Blue Norther, will surge southward across the entire Great
Plains. This Arctic cold front is forecast to arrive by late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and the NBM is handling
the timing of the front quite well. No adjustments to the timing of
the front were made; however, winds were raised through mid-day
Sunday, as winds will remain brisk post-FROPA.

Due to the intensity of diabatic cooling at the centroid of the post-
frontal high, and the related strength of CAA associated with the
Arctic cold front, high temperatures, which came in cooler by the
NBM compared to prior forecasts, were lowered for Sunday. Highs were
aligned with the NBM 25th percentile, which puts temperatures in the
middle of the GEFS/ECX/ECME guidance envelope, or in the middle 40s
on the Caprock and into the upper 30s to lower 40s in the Rolling
Plains. This might not be cold enough; however, a stepwise approach
is being maintained with this prognostication, and additional
adjustments to highs Sunday may be necessary in forthcoming forecast
cycles. Global NWP guidance continues to indicate that the Arctic
airmass will rotate into the TN River Valley by early next week,
allowing for temperatures to rebound quickly Monday as the
subtropical ridge expands eastward into W TX. The high-frequency
wave breaking pattern over the Pacific Ocean will generate some
basal shortwave troughs that may translate through the base of the
ridge, but the forecast remains dry, with little support for QPF.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07