Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
666 FXUS64 KLUB 261744 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1144 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Chilly tonight with below normal temperatures across the region. - Cold front Saturday will bring much cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. - Low precipitation chances possible Sunday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Winds have begun to respond to the developing surface low across the foothills of Colorado and are beginning to veer southward. This should have little affect on afternoon highs as the airmass to our south has been modified thanks to Tuesday`s cold front. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the 50s area wide today. Surface winds across our northwestern zones will be on the low-end breezy side this afternoon due to the close proximity of the surface low, but overall winds should remain tame as the pressure gradient remains relatively relaxed. Winds will diminish overnight as the surface low dissipates across eastern New Mexico as upper ridging builds across the Rockies. This will allow for a chilly start to Thanksgiving Day with morning lows near to below freezing for most areas across the FA. Afternoon highs for Thanksgiving will be warmer than today thanks to the building upper ridge, but easterly surface winds will help limit the increase in temperatures to around 5 degrees on average. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Upper ridging will be flattened by Friday afternoon by an upper low pushing inland across the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will transition to an open wave trough as it passes over the Cascades and will push southeastward into the Central Plains by early Saturday. A surface low is progged to develop over Wyoming/Colorado Friday ahead of the upper trough and deepen as travels just ahead of the upper trough. This will lead to a breezy Friday afternoon and evening, especially as the surface low pushes southward closer to the FA. Models have backed off precip chances for Friday evening behind the warm front with the best chances for rain showers remaining across our far southeastern zones. A cold front is still expected to push through the South Plains region Saturday morning bringing much cooler temperatures and breezy winds as pressure rises behind the front will average 4 mb/hr. Cloud cover will help with keeping temperatures cool Sunday and Monday with highs only expected to reach into the low 40s at best with some areas staying in the 30s. Morning lows each day will be in the teens and 20s. The forecast continues to be in question beyond Monday especially in regards to the potential for winter precip. The GFS continues to remain dry which is expected with an open wave trough with a positive tilt. The ECMWF, while now having an open wave trough over the region, continues to show winter precip across the region late Monday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 VFR conditions will prevail the entire period. Stanley/Benz && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...26