Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
938 FXUS64 KLUB 011102 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 602 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 - Cool weather is expected today, with dry and warmer weather forecast Sunday and beyond. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a cyclonic gyre was located across the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence River Watershed, with broadly cyclonic flow eclipsing the CWA. A PV anomaly embedded within the southwestern tranche of the broadly cyclonic flow will propagate to the southeast of the CWA later this morning, governing the advection of confluent flow over the region. The passage of this PV anomaly has generated a high-level, baroclinic leaf, with thick cirrus bands advecting towards the southeast that will clear the CWA prior to sunrise. At the surface, the attendant cold front was moving through the CWA, with brisk, northerly winds trailing behind. Pressure tendencies will gradually stabilize by this afternoon, with winds veering towards the northeast by solar noon and diminishing towards sunset. The combination of CAA and strong subsidence aloft will keep high temperatures a few degrees below seasonal norms, with highs peaking in the lower-middle 60s amidst full insolation. Clear weather will continue into tonight, with excellent radiational cooling expected as winds become light and variable. Temperatures will fall into the middle-upper 30s area-wide by Sunday morning, with the exception of the northwestern South Plains where lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s are forecast (i.e., Muleshoe vicinity). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 At the beginning of the period, the mid/upper-levels will feature a deamplifying shortwave trough pivoting over the Middle TN River Valley, with a subtropical ridge emerging into the southern Rocky Mountains. To the north, an intense, quasi-zonal jet streak will be translating over the Medicine Line/49th parallel, thus squashing the amplitude of the ridging to its south. A train of shortwave perturbations translating through the mean flow over the Medicine Line will induce weak, leeward pressure falls across the Great Plains as the surface high shifts eastward into the Ozark Plateau. Breezy, southwesterly winds will boost temperatures into the middle 70s Sunday; and the trend for even warmer weather continues to be forecast heading into next week as the upper air pattern remains semi-progressive over the northern half of the Lower 48. As a result, shortwave ridging is forecast to dominate the forecast through all of next week, with highs climbing nearly 15 degrees above seasonal norms Tuesday before another cold front arrives early Wednesday morning. However, given considerable agreement on the bulk of the semi-progressive wave train being displaced along the Canadian border, frontolysis will be underway as the front arrives Wednesday morning, with only a slight reprieve in temperatures as highs are forecast to remain above normal through the remainder of the week. By Thursday, global NWP guidance is indicating a potentially well- defined PV anomaly emanating from a negatively-tilted trough digging into the Pacific Northwest to propagate across the Lower 48. This would ultimately shift the shortwave ridge eastward and induce cyclogenesis, and it is possible that winds Thursday may be underdone. However, there remains discrepancies on the amplitude and position of the shortwave trough as it progresses across the Lower 48. Therefore, NBM winds have been left as-is, but adjustments may be needed in future prognostications. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...51