111
FXUS64 KLUB 071745
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday
  with cooler high temperatures.

- Warmer and drier conditions expected by the end of the work
  week, with elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend as
  breezy winds develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Isolated showers continue to develop, mainly for areas across the
Caprock as a weak disturbance tracks through the region early this
afternoon. Similar to previous forecasts, we expect an additional
round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop across
eastern New Mexico this afternoon and track into portions of the FA
by the late afternoon and early evening. The severe weather threat
continues to remain low, however forecast soundings across the area
depict DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg, suggesting stronger storm
cores could be capable of stronger downburst type winds. Much of the
activity, like yesterday and this morning, will be confined to areas
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northern South
Plains. As this is where the best instability and overall lift will
reside, along with where the main bulk of H7 moisture is present.
However, over the last several days things have "over performed" in
the sense of overall coverage so went ahead and expanded coverage of
NBM mentionable PoPs east to include most areas west of the I-27
corridor. Moist upslope surface flow along with the mid-level
moisture present will help influence cloud cover through much of the
afternoon, we could see slight tapering off as we begin to warm up
through the afternoon, regardless this cloud cover and lingering
showers will help keep highs cooler. NBM temperatures continue to
remain too warm so opted for a blend of CONSMOS and NBM 25th
percent, with highs in the 60s (NW counties) to lower 80s (SE
counties).

Precipitation will likely continue through the overnight period,
potentially expanding ever so slightly as a weak LLJ kicks in.
Although the main source of lift will come from another weak
disturbance rippling through the H5 flow aloft. This will likely
keep scattered shower and thunderstorms chances for areas across the
Caprock through Wednesday afternoon. Similar to today, cloud cover
along with precipitation will help keep highs from warming too much
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Sad to report that the cooler and wetter conditions run away from
the long term period with a warming trend on the way for the region.
By the start of the period an upper level ridge, centered over the
Rio Grande, will begin to build and amplify across the region. As a
result, we will see heights along with thickness values begin to
increase across the region allowing for the return of drier and
warmer conditions. At the surface, the center of the high will
remain parked just to our east as a surface low develops and digs
into the TX/OK Panhandles. In turn, this will allow for surface
winds to remain a more easterly component, varying out of the south
and east throughout the afternoon through at least Friday. Despite
the easterly component to the wind, the H7 surface high will remain
centered over much of the region. As a result, we can expect
unseasonably warm temperatures to return by the end of the work week
through the weekend with highs in the 80s and 90s. Winds will begin
to veer out of the southwest as the lee trough deepens and the
pressure gradient begins to tighten. Therefore, we expect southwest
winds to become breezy throughout the weekend around 15 to 20 mph
with potential gusts to 30 mph at times. One thing to note, as these
southwest breezes develop and temperatures begin to warm, we could
see the potential for elevated fire weather concerns across much of
the area through the weekend. By Monday, there is some indication
for remnants of a decaying tropical system in the Pacific to become
absorbed into the main flow. Current guidance keeps much of the
moisture across eastern New Mexico, limiting our chances for
precipitation, but this will be something to closely watch over the
next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Low CIGS have mostly cleared out of all TAF sites early this
afternoon following a cold front early this morning. A return of low
CIGS appears likely again early Wednesday morning. Most indications
are that a cloud deck will remain in MVFR territory lasting through
much of Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01