Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
026 FXUS64 KLUB 101717 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1117 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1115 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 - Near-record high temperatures and typical West Texas winds are forecast Tuesday. - Additional record highs are possible later this week. - Cooler this weekend with rain chances returning. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a high-amplitude, longwave trough continues to carve a path over the central and eastern parts of the U.S., with the CWA located on its southwestern periphery where a subtropical ridge continues to amplify over the Desert Southwest. The longwave trough will continue its progression northeastward into the North Atlantic as it becomes negatively-tilted, with an attenuation of the meridional waveguide over the Lower 48 expected to follow as the subtropical ridge expands into the Great Plains. The warm-up will continue today into Tuesday, with near-record high temperatures forecast area-wide Tuesday. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front was located along the lee of the Rocky Mountains, with a 1036 mb anticyclone centered in the TX Hill Country. Meanwhile, leeward pressure falls are beginning to gradually steepen along the western periphery of the surface high, as surface troughing begins to establish beneath a shortwave perturbation propagating southward over the High Plains. Breezy and mild conditions are expected this afternoon, with highs peaking in the middle 60s due to the confluent flow advecting over W TX. The southwesterly breeze will remain intact into tonight, with morning lows bottoming up in the upper 30s to lower 40s area-wide. Near-record high temperatures are forecast Tuesday, as southwesterly winds are set to ramp up beneath a more-orthogonal component to the mean flow aloft which will generate lee cyclogenesis near the Raton Mesa/OK PH/TX PH region. Leeward pressure falls will steepen a bit more in response to the cyclogenesis, with southwesterly winds gradually veering westward by Tuesday afternoon as the cyclone slowly rotates southward. Winds were raised a tad above NBM and aligned with the latest MOS guidance given the expectation for an improvement in mixing heights. Highs were also raised a few degrees compared to the warmer MOS solutions as well, as the effects from adiabatic compression are maximized. The record high temperatures for CDS and LBB are 86 and 82 degrees, each set in 1958 and 1956, respectively; and highs of 83 and 82 degrees are forecast at CDS and LBB, respectively. This is also nearly 20 degrees above seasonal norms. Winds will begin to diminish towards dusk, as a weak cold front moves into the CWA after 12/00Z. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 The extended pattern still holds potential for rain this weekend, but not until we endure another round of record highs and some breezy afternoons. Tuesday evening opens with a pre-frontal surface trough bisecting the area from W-E that eventually becomes overtaken by a weak cold front overnight. Surface ridging with cooler northeasterlies will drop highs 5 to 10 degrees from Tuesday`s near-record warmth until lee troughing and mild temps return on Thursday underneath ridging in WNW flow. As an upper low carves through the Desert Southwest on Friday, winds aloft will back SW and direct even milder thicknesses our way. Combined with breezy SW flow, Friday`s temps should end up a bit warmer than Thursday despite a modest uptick in low-level moisture advection (dewpoints rise into the 30s compared to 20s from Thursday). Moisture advection ramps up thereafter downstream of a compact low progged to lift either across the South Plains or Permian Basin on Sunday. Models and ensembles are in decent agreement with the strength of this low, but not so much its timing and more importantly its track. Track differences are sizable enough to result in either a chilly deformation rainfall event for much of the forecast area or dry slotting with mild and breezy conditions - or even a mix thereof. Other than smoothing NBM`s noisy PoPs for Saturday and Sunday, no changes are warranted at this point until models begin converging with this low`s track and timing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR prevails for the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds will become breezy this afternoon and diminish after dusk. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...09