Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
772 FXUS64 KLUB 021105 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with highs at least 10 degrees above seasonal normals. - A pattern change is possible early next week, which may bring slight cooler weather and increased rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Well above seasonal normal temperatures continue Thursday. The upper ridging has built over the region and will remain overhead through Thursday at the same time as upper troughing swings onto the CONUS just off the coast of California. Height and thicknesses will slightly increase Thursday keeping high temperatures ~10 degrees above seasonal normal with much of the region will experience highs in the 90s. To start the day, winds will be light and from the southwest, however will shift to the south during the late afternoon hours in response to the development of a lee side low over Colorado. Some models indicate the possibility for high base convection developing mainly off the Caprock early this morning and then again later this afternoon and evening. If these high base storms do develop, measurable rain is not expected and will most likely be virga showers. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain dry Thursday. Thursday night will be quiet with mostly clear skies. Similar to the highs for Thursday, low temperatures will be ~10 degrees warmer than seasonal normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Upper ridging will remain above the region Friday as upper troughing swings over western CONUS, however as the trough continues to approach the region, the upper ridging will flatten. Heights and thicknesses will gradually decrease as the trough approaches the region effectively cooling temperatures. However, temperatures will remain ~5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Southwesterly flow aloft will prevail through early next week as the upper trough becomes positively tilted over the Intermountain West. Seasonal normal temperatures and precipitation chances could return Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front is progged to track southward through the region. However, timing and how far south the front treks is uncertain at the moment, therefore NBM temperatures and PoPs were left as is. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07