Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
652 FXUS64 KLUB 010534 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Warmer today. - Temperatures continue warming into mid-week, then cooling by Thursday with precipitation chances, before warming again by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Cloud cover will remain through at least late morning across the region, clearing from west to east. While this will allow for the sun to show and help warm temperatures to the 40s, an upper shortwave trough will bring a cold front early this afternoon. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air and will keep afternoon highs from reaching out of the 40s across most areas. Surface high pressure will settle over the region by the late evening and will allow winds to become light. This along with clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop into the teens across most of the Caprock and the low 20s across the Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 More zonal flow aloft will develop Tuesday in the wake of an upper trough. Combined with a return of SW surface flow, highs will return to near normal across the area in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another surface cold front will move through from north to south on Wednesday and a 10-15 temperature gradient is expected depending on exactly how fast it moves, with low 50s over the far southern Panhandle to mid 60s over the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Models continue to disagree for Thursday with the ECMWF bringing a much more shallow and faster upper trough, while the GFS remains slower and more amplified. Per usual in this timeframe, NBM was previously a bit too aggressive given the uncertainty and the preference would be to start PoPs lower and gradually increase them as confidence grows. Luckily the latest run came in around 30% area- wide which seems more reasonable. Nonetheless if any precipitation were to fall Thursday morning, it would be cold enough to be freezing and any non-zero chance of precipitation at those temperatures is worth close attention. Again more zonal flow behind this system Friday into the weekend should bring a return to near average temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 CIGs may drop to MVFR, possibly IFR, at CDS after 06Z and PVW/LBB around 12Z. Confidence is lower with the possibility of IFR CIGs than with MVFR CIGs, but it is far from impossible. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals by 18Z Monday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...51