392
FXUS64 KLUB 092300
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
600 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 549 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Possible elevated fire weather concerns this weekend due to
  warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds.

- Precipitation chances return Sunday and continue through early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Upper level ridging will remain firmly in control on Friday. This
will result in the continuation of warm and dry conditions.
Overnight lows will dip down into the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures
will tick up a degree or two on in response to increasing
thickness values. Highs will reach the mid 80s to near 90 degrees,
with the highest readings across the Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

The aforementioned upper ridge will be centered over Oklahoma and
north Texas on Saturday. Warm and dry conditions will persist,
with the hottest temperatures on Saturday once again across the
Rolling Plains. Gusty south winds are also expected as the
pressure gradient tightens in the lee of the Rockies. On Sunday,
the ridge axis begins to shift to the east in response to a
deepening upper level low over the Inter- mountain West. This will
setup southwest flow aloft across the Panhandle and west Texas.
Precipitation chances begin to increase by Sunday evening across
western and southern portions of the South Plains. Otherwise,
highs will still climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
eastern half of the forecast area. The upper level ridge will
remain more or less centered southeast of the region on Monday and
Tuesday. Abundant Pacific moisture will stream into the area in
the southwest flow aloft. In addition, models continue to
indicate a cold front sagging into the region on Monday. Thus,
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue on Monday and into
the first half of Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday continue to
be tricky as this will depend on the eventual timing and location
of the front. We will continue to stick with the model blend but
these will likely be adjusted as we get closer to Monday. The
upper level ridge begins to gradually move back to the west by the
middle of next week resulting in dry conditions for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...51