Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
608 FXUS64 KLUB 171122 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 522 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Unseasonably warm early this week before trending cooler by the end of the week. - Breezy today with elevated fire danger over the SW TX Panhandle. - Precipitation returns to areas off the Caprock Wednesday, becoming widespread Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected through the short term period. Latest water vapor imagery displays the center of the upper level trough spiraling through the western CONUS. As this shortwave lifts northeast throughout the afternoon, lee-side pressure falls will work to tighten the surface gradient across west Texas. Thus promoting breezy west-southwest winds this afternoon around 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Strongest speeds will be fixated across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle, closest to the surface trough. Warm southerly flow at the surface and mid-levels will also work to promote unseasonably warm temperatures this afternoon, with 850 mb temperatures around 18C to 20C suggesting temperatures in the 70s and 80s. A widespread range in temperatures is expected, with cooler highs in the 70s east of I- 27 while highs increase into the 80s east of I-27. Given the breezy west-southwest winds this afternoon and dry fuels, there is potential for localized spots of elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Specifically across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where wind speeds will be highest. However, moisture on the rise this afternoon with minimum RH values in the mid 20s across this area and highs in the 70s should help limit the overall threat. Tonight, wind speeds begin to calm, generally less than 10 mph as lows drop into the 40s and 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The mid-level short wave trough currently positioned across southern portions of the Intermountain West will shift east into the Central Plains by the start of the extended, in response to a secondary trough moving onshore the California coastline. A shortwave ridge will therefore reside over the region by the start of the period, as the FA finds itself split between both systems to the north and west, with southwest flow aloft prevailing. Moist southwest flow noted from H3 to H7 will aid in the transport of monsoonal moisture into the West Texas/ Panhandles region by as early as Tuesday morning. Despite moisture on the rise, lift associated with the approaching system will likely remain to our west for much of the day given the slower progression of the system. Therefore, we expect Tuesday to remain dry, however increasing mid to upper level cloud cover is expected by the afternoon which should help keep lows "cooler" but still unseasonably warm fro November standards in the 70s to mid 80s. By mid-week the pattern looks to become unsettled as the upper level system over the Desert Southwest becomes elongated and inches closer to the region. As a result, flow aloft will back a bit more southerly allowing for the continuation of moisture return into the region while we also see better jet dynamics enter the region. Most guidance is in agreement with the center of the low translating through Baja California by early Wednesday morning, with a modest H5 jet streak rounding the southern periphery of the parent trough out clips portions of the FA. This uptick in upper level lift combined with beneficial moisture in place will work to generate shower and thunderstorm chances for the eastern half of the FA Wednesday. Precipitation and lingering cloud cover combined with the continued decrease in heights will allow for temperatures to trend a few degrees cooler than from what we are expected to see earlier in the week. As we head towards the end of the week, precipitation chances look to become more widespread as the upper trough becomes negatively tilted while marching through eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. A secondary, potentially slightly more robust H5 jet streak tied to the closed low looks to set up in the vicinity of the FA Thursday allowing for the continuation of shower and thunderstorms across much of the area as supportive jet dynamics remain in place. Although uncertainty remains low at this point in time, severe analogs are highlighting areas for potential strong to severe thunderstorms as the dryline shifts west to east across the region and interacts with the plentiful moisture and lift. At this point in time, confidence remains low as mentioned with best chances for any severe thunderstorms remaining to our east. Precipitation looks to come to an end by Friday as the upper level system ejects northeast becoming more of an open wave. An additional vort max looks to develop over the Desert Southwest and wrap around the base of the trough. Deterministic guidance continues to be in disagreement with the evolution of this system through the weekend into early next week. Models like the ECMWF and Canadian display a more progressive solution that dry-slots much of the region. Whereas the GFS depicts a slower and quite strong upper level low developing, making its way into the FA by early next week bringing precipitation chances with it. Given the run to run differences will opt to keep NBM mentionable PoPs beginning Sunday although things may need to be changed in future forecasts as models become more in sync with one another. Although precipitation remains uncertain, these series of upper level systems will help keep temperatures cooler through the end of the week into the weekend with highs in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR will prevail through this TAF period. West winds will gradually strengthen through the rest of this morning and become breezy this afternoon, with gusts near 30 kt likely at all TAF sites. Winds will weaken after sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30