Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
222 FXUS64 KLUB 032339 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 539 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 - Colder with increasing likelihood of snow late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, mainly across the far southwestern and south-central Texas Panhandle. - Generally warmer and dry into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The short term portion of the forecast period now holds all of the upcoming winter weather event. The weather maker will primarily be the upper level trough digging southward over Utah toward the Four Corners by end of day. This trough is then progged to move eastward across northern New Mexico. However, this weakening system will fill/shear/dampen as it moves over the High Plains with weakening and relatively shallow lift associated with the system. As opposed to yesterday when it looked like subcloud moisture would initially be lacking, surface and upper air analyses are showing some low level moisture advection in the post-frontal air mass with advection and/or development of a stratus layer across the forecast area later this evening. Should this be the case subcloud moistening would not be required, thus increasing the odds of precipitation reaching the ground and extending the window of said precipitation. That said, there are still concerns with the weakening system. Looking at a series of time-height sections from around the region shows initial lift is mainly in a layer between 800 and 700 mb and is mostly isentropic in nature with a possible frontogentic component thrown in. This lift occurs in a warmer band of the column, far too warm for dendritic growth, rather favoring stratus continuation and possibly very light precip with any snowfall favoring small ice crystals and thus having a difficult time accumulating. This lift then dissipates while synoptic scale lift near the 600 to 500 mb layer picks up mainly across the far southwestern and south central Panhandle. There is some potential for a bit of dendritic growth, but mainly small crystals are the likely form of ice nuclei, and while the bulk of this lift is expected to be to the north of the area, locations along and north of a Morton to Plainview line have a decent shot of a dusting of snow to near 1/2 inch accumulation with the main period of time for accumulating snow being between midnight tonight and noon Thursday. Have made a few minor adjustments to the PoPs during the period, but the main story is keep the NBM`s likely mention across northwestern counties, tapering downward to the east and south of that area. Finally, in general temperature profiles favor snowfall, but early in the period and on the eastern and southern edges of the precip field may initially have a bit of rain and/or sleet/freezing rain. Regarding temperatures, increasing cloud cover this evening and a slow egress of cloud cover Thursday support a narrow diurnal range with a slight tweak upward to tonight`s lows and an adjustment downward for Thursday`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 The axis of an upper-level trough continues to sit overhead through Sunday before pushing off to the east early next week as an upper- level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific. Quiet weather is expected this weekend with slightly above average temperatures on Friday and Saturday as westerly surface flow returns to the area. A weak shortwave trough may traverse the area Sunday, bringing a weak cold front through the CWA Sunday morning and cooler high temperatures mainly in the 50`s. However, the cool down Sunday will be brief, as the upper-level ridge begins to move overhead, bringing above average temperatures to the area as we move into early next week aided by southerly surface winds and southwesterly 850mb winds. Temperatures could reach into the 70`s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 An approaching upper level storm system will bring a high confidence of low CIGS to the entire region beginning later this evening. There is a high likelihood of CIGS dipping down into IFR category for all TAF sites by early Thursday morning. The visby and precipitation forecast is a little more uncertain at the moment. The KCDS terminal will see the best chance of snowfall early Thursday morning. Any drops in visby will likely be tied to snow showers, however, there is a lower chance of snowfall at KLBB and KPVW. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...01