112
FXUS61 KLWX 071850
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
250 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon
before crossing the area Wednesday. Beneficial rainfall will
accompany the front along with a sharp cooldown as high pressure
builds to the north Thursday. The first widespread frost and freeze
of the season is possible with high pressure nearby Thursday night
into Friday. Coastal low pressure will develop along the southeast
U.S coast this weekend before lifting north toward the Delmarva
early next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will push further offshore while a potent upper
level trough and area of low pressure track through southeastern
Canada. Meanwhile, the associated surface cold frontal boundary
extends from the eastern Great Lakes down across the Ohio River
Valley and southern Plains region. Radar as of 245pm shows a
large shield of rain working northeast from eastern KY and
south-central WV. This is in association with a wave of low
pressure riding along the cold frontal boundary.

Dry conditions to prevail for most locations outside of the
Alleghenies through late afternoon. Southerly winds will gradually
increase this afternoon and evening as the gradient tightens between
the departing high and incoming trough/frontal boundary. Expect
gusts of 15 to 25 mph across the region. Highest gusts look to occur
this afternoon and evening with a slight lull overnight as the front
(main precip shield) crosses. Outside of the winds expect increasing
cloud cover throughout the remainder of today as the front nears.
Despite the increased cloud cover, expect highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s mountains). Humidity will also
increase with dewpoints climbing back into the low to mid 60s.

Shower chances will gradually increase from northwest to southeast
this afternoon into this evening. Hi-res CAMS have rain moving into
the Alleghenies around mid-afternoon (3-5pm) (which aligns with
current radar trends as of 245pm) before spreading east toward
I-81 late afternoon (5-8pm). Precipitation continues south and
east toward I-95 metros this evening into the overnight hours
(8pm-12am). Overall looking at a solid 8 to 12 hour window of
beneficial rainfall across the region. Most model solutions
continue to show rain amounts of less than 1 inch across the
region with some CAMS showing 1 to 3 inches of rain across the
far western Alleghenies, Catoctins, and into portions of
central/northeast MD. Any rain that does fall will help limit
any further degradation when it comes to the recent moderate to
severe drought as well as limit fire weather concerns heading
into the end of the workweek.

No severe weather is expected with the front although a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled given weak surface based instability
(less than 600 j/kg) developing ahead of the front/trough this
afternoon. The highest confidence for thunderstorms would be in
areas west of the Blue Ridge (Moorefield/Martinsburg,
WV/Hagerstown, MD down to Harrisonburg,VA) although a few
rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out east given the elevated
instability. Rain will continue overnight with lows falling back
into the upper 50s and mid 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will gradually sag south and east of the area
Wednesday morning into Wednesday midday. As a result, rain will come
to an end with gradually clearing skies from northwest to southeast
across the region. Winds will abruptly switch to the north/northwest
allowing for falling temperatures and dewpoints during the peak
diurnal period. Daytime highs will likely be reached during the
front half of the day with falling temperatures through the
afternoon and evening. Highs will push into the upper 60s and 70s
outside the mountains (upper 50s and low 60s). Skies will trend
mostly cloudy to sunny by the afternoon due in part to strong dry
air advection behind the front. The push of drier air in the wake of
the front combined with high pressure wedging in from the north will
allow for winds to remain elevated across the region. Expect gusts
to hover around 15 to 25 mph out of the northwest with dewpoint
values tanking  into the mid to upper 40s and low 50s Wednesday
afternoon. Highest gusts look to occur during the afternoon and
early evening hours before gradually decreasing overnight. Some
patchy frost is possible over the sheltered valleys of the
Allegheny Highlands Wednesday night, but some uncertainty
remains given the fact that winds will remain elevated. Frost
Advisories may be needed to encompass this threat in
particularlyacross the typical cold air sinks of Garrett Co.
MD, Grant and Pendleton Co. WV, and Highland Co. VA. Lows
Wednesday night will fall into the upper 30s and mid 40s west of
I-95 with mid to upper 40s further east toward the metros.

Sunny skies and cool temperatures continue Thursday as high pressure
shifts from eastern Canada into the interior Northeast. This will
yield a continuation of cool and dry air advection with highs in the
50s over the mountains and low to mid 60s further east toward the
metros. It will be our first real taste of sweater weather for the
early Fall 2025 season. A widespread frost/freeze is possible
Thursday night as high pressure sits over the Twin Tiers of NY/PA
and the ridge axis extends down the eastern spine of the
Appalachians. This will yield a combination of clear skies and calm
winds across the region which is an ideal set up for radiational
cooling. Even with that said, some uncertainty remains amongst the
CAMS with winds staying slightly elevated potentially mitigating
frost/freeze production. Most locations to the north/west of I-95
are expected to drop into the 30s, with low to mid 40s
along/southeast of I-95. Higher mountain valleys in the Alleghenies
may even experience a hard freeze with lows in the 20s. Frost/freeze
headlines will likely be needed for much of the forecast area
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A highly amplified and somewhat blocky pattern looks to evolve
late this week through early next week. Strong ridging will
build over the central CONUS, while a pair of cutoff lows flank
the ridge just off the West Coast and over the Southeast.
Embedded upper troughing will pivot across the Great Lakes to
end the week, as well. The interaction between the latter two
features (Southeast low, Great Lakes trough) will be key in
determining the weather over the Mid- Atlantic region. All of
these features will exhibit a general eastward drift through
early next week, with uncertainty in the evolution of subsequent
low pressure near or just off the East Coast.

The latest (07/12Z) guidance shows a very broad consensus with low
pressure developing along a remnant frontal boundary (actually the
same front slated to cross our region Wednesday) as it dangles just
off the Florida coast at the end of the week. This low then
strengthens baroclinically (i.e. as a result of temperature
gradients) as it slowly approaches the Carolinas this weekend.
Thereafter, the system will likely make some sort of anticyclonic
loop, but exactly where and how large of a loop remains in question.
Potential solutions range from an offshore system that generally
drifts toward New England then out to sea, to a deeper low pressure
area tucked near the VA capes/lower Chesapeake Bay. A system closer
to shore would result in higher rain potential/amounts locally,
along with an uptick in tidal flooding threats. Likewise, a further
offshore track would result in lower rain chances/amounts and a
lower tidal flood threat.

The evolution of this system and its impacts on the Mid-Atlantic
should become clearer over the next 48 to 72 hours as the individual
pieces come into better focus. Regardless, any inclement weather
should be generally confined to Saturday-Monday, with generally
drier Friday, and next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for most if not all terminals through
this afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions will return from the northwest to
southeast this evening through Wednesday midday as a cold front
crosses the region. Expect a brief 6 to 8 hour window of MVFR to IFR
conditions at the terminals due in part to a combination of steady
rainfall and low clouds as the front swings through. The risk for
thunderstorms is low, but not zero given elevated instability
overhead. Did go ahead with PROB30s at MRB for late afternoon into
early evening although confidence remains low for thunderstorms,
based on current radar trends and overall timing of the front.
Steadiest rain looks to fall between 04-10z/12am-6am amongst the
terminals. Rain will decrease from northwest to southeast late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday midday. All terminals should be
back to VFR flight conditions Wednesday afternoon. Wind will also be
a concern for aviators today and Wednesday. Expect gusts up to 25
kts out of the south and southwest this afternoon. There should be a
gradual decrease in gusts overnight with a sharp wind shift behind
the front Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Post-frontal
north to northwest winds look to gusts 15 to 25 kts Wednesday late
morning into Wednesday afternoon. It`s not until Wednesday
night when the winds look to fall back below 15 kts.

VFR conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as strong Canadian
high pressure builds over the northeastern U.S. Winds will continue
to gusts 15 to 20 kts out of the north and northeast as the surface
high builds south into the region. Winds will switch to the
east while decreasing Friday into the start of the weekend.

Next chance of sub-VFR conditions arrive this weekend as an area of
low pressure works northward from the southeast U.S Coast. The track
and placement of this low will determine restrictions (if any) from
low clouds and showers across the terminals. Winds will also
increase during this time out of the north early Saturday before
turning easterly late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions look to continue for all waters this afternoon.
Southerly winds will continue to gusts between 20 to 25 kts before
decreasing slightly after sunset. SCA conditions will continue
through the night for both the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac
as the gradient continues to tighten ahead of the approaching
cold frontal boundary. Rain will overspread the waters later
this evening and through Wednesday morning leading to brief vsby
reductions. Winds will switch to the north and northwest
Wednesday late morning and into the afternoon with SCA gusts up
to 25 kts. These SCA level gusts could linger into Thursday as
high pressure builds north of the region. Winds Thursday will
remain out of the north and northeast with gusts up to 20 kts.

It`s not until Thursday night when sub-SCA level winds return as
Canadian high pressure settles north of the region. Winds will turn
from the northeast to the east as high pressure remains north of the
area Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will approach
from the southeast U.S coast bringing another period of SCA
conditions. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible Saturday and Sunday
as low pressure meanders along the Delmarva coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are expected to hold relatively steady over the next few
days within southerly flow, before decreasing behind a cold front in
northwesterly flow on Wednesday. Several sites may potentially reach
into Action stage around the time of high tide Tuesday, but no
flooding is expected. Anomalies look to climb later this week and
into the upcoming weekend as onshore flow increases with low
pressure moving north from the southeast U.S. Additional coastal
flooding threats are possible during this time, although details are
yet to be determined due to uncertainty regarding the track and
placement of the approaching low.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...DHOF
AVIATION...DHOF/EST
MARINE...DHOF/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX