360
FXUS61 KLWX 040041
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
741 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions look to continue through at least Thursday. A cold
front will pass through the area this evening with a warm front to
follow Wednesday. Both fronts will bring gusty winds and lowering
relative humidity values which will contribute to an elevated fire
weather threat midweek. Widespread rain chances return Friday into
the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure and it`s associated
fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall just some slight adjustments to temperatures, cloud cover,
and winds through the overnight period. Lead shortwave pressure
trough continues to push east of the area this evening with the
front now working into areas along and west of the Allegheny
Mountains.

A weak moisture starved cold front will pass through the area
tonight bringing with it gusty west to northwest winds and a few
passing mid/high level clouds. The front will usher in a drier
airmass Tuesday into Wednesday leading to an elevated fire weather
threat, especially west of the Baltimore/Washington DC metropolitan
areas. Recent drought concerns combined with gusty winds and
lowering relative humidity values will further compound this threat
heading into midweek.

Winds will remain elevated through the front half of this evening
before decreasing overnight as high pressure builds to the south and
west of the region. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph can be expected at times,
especially as the lead shortwave pressure trough and weak dry front
push through. Locally higher gusts are possible over the western
facing slopes of the Alleghenies and will likely remain that way
through most of the night.

Winds will decrease briefly east of the mountains overnight before
ramping up again Tuesday afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will
fall into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s (low 30s over the
mountains). Skies will remain mostly clear with some passing jet
induced high level clouds late tonight into Tuesday.

Sunny and seasonable conditions are expected Tuesday as high
pressure builds nearby. Winds will remain elevated during the late
morning and afternoon hours as the front departs east and high
builds from the southwest. A warm front will also encroach from the
west helping keep a marginal pressure gradient across the region.
Overall expect sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper
50s and mid 60s (40s mountains). Winds will remain out of the
west and northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph
Tuesday afternoon. This will yield dry relative humidity values
in the 20 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon. With that said,
will have to monitor for any fire weather concerns, especially
west of the metro areas Tuesday afternoon. One limiting factor
could be the wind pending the proximity of the broad surface
high nearby.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday night with mid and high
level clouds late as the warm front lifts into the region. The front
will come through dry while leading to a boost in temperatures and
wind midweek. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
30s for most with only those in the valleys and metro areas staying
in the low 40s.

On Wednesday, a surface low pressure system tracks across the Great
Lakes with the associated warm front lifting north through the
forecast area throughout the day. This will yield breezy conditions
with southwest winds blowing 10 to 15 knots and gusting 20 to 25
knots. Along the Alleghenies, wind gusts 25 to 25 knots with gusts
up to 40 knots possible. Continuing dry conditions leading to dry
fuels combined with a dry air mass yielding low RH values,
conditions will raise concerns for fire weather. Will continue to
monitor at this point.

As winds turn more southerly and a warm front moves through,
temperatures warm a few degrees compared to Tuesday with highs in
the 60s to mid 70s. Higher elevations will stay in the upper 50s.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most with those in
the Alleghenies dipping into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Behind this system, another dry day can be expected Thursday under
the influence of high pressure. Expect temperatures to come back
down to the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 40s to low 50s in the
mountains). We will remain pretty dry, so there is a small mention
in the fire weather discussion below.

By Friday, a more substantial upper trough starts to dig towards the
Ohio Valley as high pressure retreats offshore. A stronger frontal
passage is expected to approach late Friday into Saturday, but exact
timing still needs to be worked out as we get closer in time. At
first glance, this system seems like it should be better connected
to moisture coming out of the Gulf of America, and thus should
result in some rain across the region. However, at this stage, am
still seeing some signals in guidance that areas further east may
struggle to get much moisture out of this. So, while POPs are likely
area-wide, the amount of QPF received is still very much up in the
air at this point. Any shift in the surface and upper-level features
at play could yield very different results.

A reinforcing cold front, which is most likely going to be dry, will
push through on Sunday. This will usher in much cooler air going
into next week, perhaps the coolest we have seen so far this
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday as high pressure builds
nearby. A weak moisture starved front will cross the area this
evening bringing a brief period of gusty winds. High pressure will
build from the southwest Tuesday morning with a warm front expected
to lift through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. No
precipitation is expected with the front nor much in the way of
cloud cover. The big story for aviation the next few days will
be the winds.

Northwest winds will gusts between 15 to 25 kts through the front
half of tonight. Some low level wind shear may be noted at KMRB
and points east into the corridor between 02z to 10z. This is
due in part to a pretty stout jet over the region. Winds will
remain elevated Tuesday with 15 to 20 kt gusts during the
afternoon. Higher gusts can be found along the ridges and at
terminals near the water. Winds shift to southwesterly on
Wednesday and increase to blowing between 10 and 15 knots across
all terminals. Winds are expected to gust 20 to 30 knots
Wednesday afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions return at times with widespread rain chances
for the back half of Friday. Expect northwesterly winds on
Thursday before turning southerly ahead of the next cold front
by Friday. As this occurs, gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Tuesday midday as a dry
cold front crosses this evening and high pressure builds from the
southwest. Winds drop below SCA criteria Tuesday night before
increasing again on Wednesday. Southwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots
across the waters on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisories likely.

Winds diminish on Thursday with northwest winds dropping below
criteria Thursday night. Southerly winds gust 20 to 30 knots on
Friday with additional advisories likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will push through tonight, but will likely be dry east
of the Appalachians. Relative humidity values likely fall into the
20 to 35 percent range Tuesday afternoon, though by that time wind
gusts should generally be 15 to 20 mph and somewhat intermittent.
Regardless, elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday
given long term dryness.

A very dry air mass will move into the region as high pressure moves
directly overhead. A strong thermal belt is likely to develop over
the higher elevations, leading to very poor overnight recoveries on
Wednesday morning in the midslopes and on the ridgetops. Some sites
may not recover above 40 percent, and some guidance even shows
substantially lower recoveries. This dry air mixes down area-wide
during the afternoon, and will come with increased winds out of the
southwest. Wind gusts are expected to be around 20-30 mph, with
isolated gusts close to 40 on the ridges. This, paired with
afternoon RH values into the upper 20s to low 30s and increasingly
dry fuels could lead to a more notable threat for the spread of
wildfires on Wednesday.

Another day of low RH expected on Thursday, but winds will be on the
decrease throughout the day. So, the wind and RH may not line up at
the right time to yield a substantial threat for the spread of
wildfires.

A cold front will approach the region Friday before moving through
Friday night into Saturday. RH values increase ahead of this, and
wetting rains are becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...AVS/CJL/EST
MARINE...AVS/CJL/EST
FIRE WEATHER...CJL