562
FXUS61 KLWX 171937
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
237 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead tonight and move offshore
Tuesday afternoon. A wave of low pressure will pass near or
south of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty is
high late in the week, though another area of low pressure could
approach Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Winds will abate quickly early this evening as high pressure
builds overhead by daybreak tomorrow. Clear and cold tonight
under light winds, clear skies and very dry air mass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Clouds will increase rapidly Tue morning in warm air advection
pattern ahead of weak area of low pressure expected to pass near
the area Tue evening. Light precip will arrive into western
areas after 12Z, which may be in the form of a wintry mix before
temps rise above freezing by early afternoon. A coating of snow
and/or ice is possible across the higher elevs and also on the
east slopes of the Appalachians. A Special Wx Statement has been
issued to account for this possibility. Rain overspreads the
rest of the area Tue afternoon and continues Tue night before
exiting by daybreak Wed. Moderate rainfall amounts of a quarter
to half inch of rain are anticipated.

Precip should shut off around daybreak Wed as weak wave scoots
out to sea. However, widespread low clouds will likely persist
Wed into Thu in light northerly flow regime and without an
advection of dry air into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Global guidance shows a split flow regime across the mid-latitudes.
The northern branch of the jet is much more amplified which will
offer a great influence to the local weather pattern. In particular,
the primary upper trough of interest is forecast to track from
Manitoba toward southern Quebec/upper New England on Thursday
through Saturday. At the same time, what remains of a southern
stream shortwave ejects out of the Four Corners region toward the
middle of the country by late in the work week. These pair of
systems eventually reach the eastern U.S. on Saturday before the
mean upper trough moves offshore late in the weekend. In the wake,
ensembles are in half decent agreement of the flow aloft turning
more west-northwesterly by Sunday before heights briefly build into
early next week.

The general consensus is for warming temperatures through the end of
the work week owing to a shift to southwesterly flow. On Friday,
forecast highs push well into the 60s, with 50s across mountain
locales. Despite the uptick in temperatures, warm advection showers
are forecast to push across the area which is accompanied by
increasingly cloudy conditions. Saturday`s temperature/precipitation
forecast is more uncertain as noted by the sizable box-and-whisker
plots. This is highly dependent on the frontal timing as well as the
degree of lingering showers over the Mid-Atlantic region. After the
trough exits the Atlantic coast, it appears fairly seasonable
conditions are expected into early next week. This comes with dry
weather as high pressure builds in from the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Blustery NW winds will persist through sunset, then quickly drop
off tonight. Clouds increase Tue with OVC040 and light rain
developing during the early afternoon. Rain continues through
Tue night before exiting early Wed. Low clouds persist through
Thu in light northerly flow. Cig restrictions are likely late
Tue into Thursday.

Within a pattern of extensive cloud cover and passing rain showers,
there will certainly be periods of restrictions on Thursday and
Friday. This comes with initial east-southeasterly winds before
shifting to southwesterlies. Afternoon winds may gust up to 15 to 20
knots. Thereafter, a pair of frontal systems track through the first
half of Saturday which may afford additional resrictions. Saturday`s
wind fields will largely be out of the north.

&&

.MARINE...

Extended SCA for the Chesapeake Bay waters through 06Z tonight
due to lingering gradient, but it may need to be extended
through the entire period tonight ~11Z. Winds become light Tue
and remain below SCA through at least mid week.

Wind fields across the marine waters should stay below advisory
levels through the first half of Friday. Winds are expected to shift
from northeasterly to southeasterly on Thursday, before shifting to
south-southwesterly by the following day. Small Craft Advisories may
be needed Friday evening as winds increase ahead of the pair of cold
fronts. A breezy northerly wind on Saturday offers a better chance
for advisory-caliber winds.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535-
     536-538-542.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO
MARINE...BRO