453
FXUS61 KLWX 150705
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
205 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring increasing clouds, warmer temperatures
and a few spotty showers to the area today. A strong cold front
will cross the region tonight into Sunday leading to another
round of gusty winds. A secondary front will follow Sunday night
before high pressure briefly returns Monday. Low pressure will
approach from the west Tuesday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep layer northwest flow is evident over the Mid-Atlantic on
the backside of an upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes.
A separate upper low will dive into the Great Lakes through
tonight, with an associated surface low moving into the Saint
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a warm front will develop and
lift northeastward over the area today, followed by a cold front
later tonight.

Despite the forcing for ascent with the approaching trough and
frontal system, meager moisture in the lower troposphere coupled
with a downsloping/drying component to the low-level flow means
that precipitation may be hard to come by east of the Eastern
Continental Divide. A few sprinkles or a shower are possible as
the warm front lifts through, with a couple of showers or even a
rumble of thunder possible as the cold front swings by tonight.
Otherwise, most of the time will just be cloudy with a light
southeast to south wind becoming southwest. Along and west of
the Allegheny Front, precipitation is more likely due to an
upslope component to the low-level wind. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible especially toward evening, a few of
which could enhance the gusty wind potential.

As the front encroaches on the higher terrain (generally above
3000 feet), wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem likely at these
higher elevations. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued
for tonight for western Grant and western Pendleton Counties.
Elsewhere, winds will shift to the west with occasional 15 to 25
mph gusts for the lower elevations as the front crosses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front should sweep offshore by early Sunday morning. A
strong wind field in its wake, centered several thousand feet
above ground level, will move over the region on Sunday. These
blustery winds will be accompanied by very dry air. Pressure
rises are strongest during the early morning hours Sunday when
diurnal mixing is relatively unfavorable, though some occasional
gusts to around 30 mph or so (40 mph at higher elevations, 50
mph at the highest peaks) seems likely. As diurnal mixing
increases, gusts of 30 to 45 mph will become much more common by
mid to late morning, with 45 to 55 mph gusts over/just downwind
of the higher elevations.

The current Wind Advisory may very well need to be expanded
across the rest of the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands
(especially on the eastern downslope side), as well as the Blue
Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, northern Maryland and far
northern/northwestern Virginia. Confidence on achieving full
mixing up to 4,000 feet above ground level where the 45-50 mph
winds are remains low. However, a secondary pressure surge will
move across the region later in the day into the evening Sunday
in association with a secondary cold front. The gradient also
strengthens with 45-55 mph winds lowering to within 2500-3000
feet of the surface. This may be the best opportunity for
widespread advisory-level gusts outside of the higher terrain.

Winds should gradually subside for much of the area Sunday
night, though it will likely remain breezy for many areas well
into the evening behind the secondary cold front. Other than a
rogue shower near western Maryland, it looks dry Sunday into
Sunday night. Over the higher elevations of the Alleghenies,
winds may remain elevated well into the night and perhaps into
Monday morning as well. Wind Advisories may need to be extended
to cover this threat at a later time.

Monday looks like another dry and breezy day, with gusts likely
ranging anywhere from 25 to 40 mph depending on how deeply we
mix and just how potent the residual wind field aloft is. Winds
should finally abate Monday night as high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low amplitude disturbance embedded in zonal flow aloft will
rapidly approach from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Large scale ascent
associated with this disturbance will lead to an increase in cloud
cover, and will likely result in some light precipitation as well.
Air may be just cold enough at the onset of precipitation for some
snowflakes to mix in, especially at higher elevations. Some very
light accumulations could be possible in the mountains Tuesday
morning. The precipitation type should eventually switch over to
rain for all as warmer air starts to work in from the west. High
temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 40s to around 50,
but could be a bit cooler if precipitation persists through much of
the day.

High pressure is expected to build to our north on Wednesday,
resulting in dry conditions and light winds. Temperatures are
forecast to rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s beneath a mix of
sun and clouds.

Spread in model guidance becomes extremely large beyond Wednesday
as a very complex weather pattern unfolds across the CONUS, with
split flow and the potential for multiple cutoffs to develop.
Ensemble guidance has high temperatures ranging anywhere from the
upper 30s to the low 70s on Thursday and Friday. Depending on how
the pattern develops, rain could be possible at times, but
confidence in the forecast details remains very low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few sprinkles are possible today as a warm front lifts across,
with a shower or two possible tonight as a cold front swings by.
A rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out, but both thunder and
impactful precipitation chances appear too low at the moment to
even include a PROB30 group at any of the TAF sites. Some LLWS
is possible if surface winds go light or maintain a more S/SE
component into the evening as winds increase and veer aloft.
Otherwise SE to S and eventually SW winds are expected through
tonight, becoming W late. Winds will start light, but a few
gusts around 15 knots are possible this afternoon. By this
evening, southerly gusts of 15-20 knots become more likely,
though gusts may be occasional given reduced diurnal mixing.
Once the cold front crosses, an uptick in wind gusts is likely.

Blustery conditions are expected on both Sunday and Monday with
a relative minimum during the overnight hours. An initial wave
of gusts is possible (25-35 knots) Sunday morning in the wake of
the cold front and as diurnal mixing increases. Gusts may level
off a bit before increasing again later in the day into the
early evening as a secondary front surges through. Gusts to
around 40 knots may be possible during this time. Monday will be
breezy as well with 20-30 knot gusts likely. All of this is out
of a west to northwest direction. High pressure building in
Monday night will cause winds to become much lighter.

Sub-VFR ceilings and rain appear possible at times during the day
Tuesday. VFR conditions will return for Wednesday. Winds are
expected to be light and variable on Tuesday, and then light out of
the north on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southeasterly flow is expected through this morning,
becoming southerly to southwesterly through this afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts by. A few sprinkles are possible.
Tonight, a strong cold front swings across from west to east.
This will first increase south/southwest winds into SCA levels
this evening, before switching to the west/northwest by morning.

Although a few rogue gusts near gale force can`t be ruled out
with the immediate frontal passage early Sunday morning, the
stronger winds are expected during the day as mixing and dry air
advection increases. A secondary front could boost winds heading
into late afternoon or early evening. For now, a Gale Watch
covers waters north of North Beach MD and the upper tidal
Potomac River, but may need to be extended/expanded based on
trends in the exact timing and strength of the fronts. SCA gusts
likely linger especially over the wider waters Sunday night.
Additional breezy conditions are likely Monday, and could
approach gale force again. Winds subside Monday night.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will vary in direction over the course of the day on Tuesday
and should be predominantly out of the north on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A brief reprieve from the low humidities is expected today as a
warm front lifts through the region. This will be followed by a
cold front tonight which could bring some light rain along with
it. However, the chances for a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or
more) seem pretty low at this time.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Sunday in the wake of this
cold frontal passage. Additionally, humidities will once again
drop significantly as drier air moves in. Even drier conditions
are expected Monday with a bit less in terms of wind. However,
both days will pose a threat for adverse fire weather conditions,
assuming the rain event tonight doesn`t overperform.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for
     WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     ANZ530>532-535-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
     for ANZ533-534-536-537-541>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP
FIRE WEATHER...LWX