658
FXUS61 KLWX 240852
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
352 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Surface high pressure builds over the mid-atlantic today as a
low pressure system approaches from the west. A warm front lifts
through the forecast area on Tuesday ahead of a cold front
pushing through Wednesday. Surface high pressure returns for the
end of the week and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

High pressure will build overhead today before quickly moving
offshore by the end of the day. High thin clouds will be on the
increase later today becoming denser across the west during the
afternoon.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the night.
Recent trends in guidance show precip arriving in the southwest by
daybreak Tue, sooner when compared to 24 hrs ago.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Warm advection showers will quickly overspread the area during
the day Tue before exiting Wed morning. SPC Days 2 & 3
Convective Outlooks have broad areas of general thunderstorms
across the area, which seem too broad in both areal coverage
and timing. Believe the threat for thunder is mainly Wed morning
across southern MD. Showers will exit the area by 18Z Wed
coincident with strong frontal passage. Highs could reach 70
degs east of the mountains prior to frontal passage. Winds will
be on the increase Wed afternoon in the post- frontal
environment, but remain in the 25 to 35 mph range. Turning much
colder Wed night on brisk NW winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As a broad upper level trough of low pressure pivots through
the region Thursday, a cold dome of high pressure will build in
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Expect dry conditions
Thursday through late Saturday, with exception to perhaps a
couple of upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies later Thursday
and Thursday night. Temperatures will be chilly both during the
day and at night with highs in the lower to middle 40s and lows
in the middle 20s. A gusty wind both Thursday and Friday will
make it feel much colder. By late Saturday into Saturday night,
the high pressure will move to our east and the winds will
quickly diminish and become more southeast to southerly heading
into Sunday. A weak warm front could try to edge its way into
our western zones on Sunday, which could lead to a light wintry
mix in the northern Alleghenies or light rain just to the east.
This would depend on how saturated the lower and middle levels
of the atmosphere are during this time. Sunday`s high
temperatures should approach 50 in the eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Clouds in the increase this afternoon and tonight, but no cig
restrictions expected. Showers arrive Tue morning with cig and
vsby restrictions late Tue into Tue night. Some LLWS is also
possible in stable low-levels. Cold frontal passage expected
around 18Z Wed with shifting winds and increasing to 25 kt. The
strongest winds will occur on Fri when 30+kt gusts are likely.

VFR conditions Thursday through Friday night. Winds west-northwest
10 to 15 knots gusts 25 knots Thursday through Friday, diminishing
Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...

Possible SCA Tue-Tue night given tightening pressure gradient,
but a stable air mass may limit its full mixing potential. More
definite SCA conditions are expected Wed afternoon through the
end of the week in a strong CAA pattern over still relatively
warm waters in the 50s.

Small craft advisories likely Thursday through Friday with possible
Gales in the northern Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon then again
Friday afternoon. Small craft advisories possible Friday night,
mainly for open Chesapeake Bay waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW