300
FXUS61 KLWX 190702
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
202 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively drier weather conditions are expected through
Thursday before another wave of low pressure approaches from
the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Friday. Rain chances
will continue through Saturday with high pressure returning
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quite an impressive swirl is evident on satellite imagery this
morning over western PA as an upper-level low swings into the
region. WAA aloft has since weakened resulting in precipitation
becoming lighter and exiting to the east. A spotty instance or
two of light rain or drizzle remains possible early this morning
but the steadiest of the rain has ended.

Clouds will remain abundant today as the wave of low pressure
moves offshore and high pressure over New England wedges down
the east side of the Appalachians. This will keep temperatures
in the lower 50s for much of the area, with 40s at higher
elevations and around 60 south of I-64 where breaks of sun are
possible this afternoon.

The cloudy pattern will persist tonight. Some fog is possible
given light to calm winds, lingering low-level moisture, and
recent rainfall. However, abundant low clouds may keep the fog
from getting too dense or widespread. Will monitor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain wedged down the east side of the
Appalachians through late this week leading to a persistently
cloudy pattern and cooler temperatures.

Low pressure will take shape over the mid section of the
country, eventually following a similar path Friday into
Saturday. This system overall is a bit larger with a bit more
moisture, so it seems plausible that rain could last a little
longer. Rainfall amounts remain to be seen and will depend on
exactly where the best forcing sets up north of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure associated with the southern stream should be moving
east through the day Saturday with the cold front pushing through as
well. Some guidance keeps Saturday dry closer to the Mason-Dixon,
with rain chances remaining further south. For temps.,mid to
upper 50s (upper 40s mountains) are expected Saturday as winds
change back to the west to northwest direction after the cold
front pushes through. Overnight lows Saturday night will be in
the mid 30s and low 40s.

Sunshine makes its way back into the forecast Sunday as high
pressure settles over the central Appalachian region. The high will
slide off the VA/NC coast Monday with another front set to approach
from the Ohio River Valley by the middle part of next week. Upslope
rain and snow showers will likely return to the mountains Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
In the wake of earlier steady rain, lower ceilings are
developing in the moisture left behind. Some fog is possible,
but it should be mostly low clouds with IFR likely through the
morning hours (except at KCHO - less certain here given they are
south of the gradient of lowest ceilings in most guidance, but
climo and trends with moisture banking toward the Blue Ridge may
result in at least intermittent LIFR there this morning). Winds
will be light out of the north to northeast through tonight.
Ceilings may attempt to lift a bit this afternoon into this
evening before lowering again late tonight into Thursday.

Winds will shift around to the southeast Thursday and this
should help lift ceilings again heading into the afternoon.
Periods of lower ceilings are possible ahead of a warm front
Thursday night through Friday with a few showers developing.
Steady light southeast to south winds should keep ceilings
mostly in the MVFR range, though brief periods of lower
conditions are possible at times especially west/north. Lower
conditions are likely as additional rain moves in late Friday
into Friday night.

Cannot rule out restrictions in any lingering precip Saturday. Winds
switch to the north and northwest Saturday into Sunday behind the
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift around to the north today in the wake of
departing low pressure. These winds may channel especially over
the wider waters of the mid/lower Chesapeake Bay. SCAs have been
issued south of Drum Point MD, but the main channel further
north up to about the Bay Bridge as well as the lower tidal
Potomac River may be close as well this afternoon and evening.

A cool high pressure wedge will remain entrenched over the
waters through Thursday with generally light winds expected. The
wedge begins to break late Thursday into Friday as low pressure
approaches from the west. This will turn winds to the southeast
and south. Winds may increase to near SCA levels ahead of the
low (depending on track/strength) late Friday, and in northerly
channeling that may begin late Friday night.

Breezy SCA level north to northwest winds are likely in the
wake of a cold front Saturday. Sub-SCA level winds are expected
Sunday into Monday next week with high pressure nearby.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...DHOF/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CPB