Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
451
FXUS61 KLWX 151745
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
145 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend,
then move offshore next week. A warm front will lift through
the region early in the week, ushering in a prolonged period of
hot weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and pleasant conditions expected through the weekend. Afternoon
temps in the low to mid 80s today warm a couple of degrees for
Sunday. Fair weather cumulus clouds give us partly cloudy skies
during the day, then mostly clear at night. Additional valley fog is
possible tonight, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Milder Sunday
night as lows settle only in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Aloft, a building mid- level ridge will be centered across
NC/VA to start the week. Surface high off of Cape Cod moves
further east into the Atlantic, though the axis of the ridge
extends to its southwest, across the Outer Banks/Carolina
coastline. This results in light southerly flow across our area
for Monday afternoon, with slightly veered southwest winds west
of the Blue Ridge, and more southeast winds east of I-95. The
bay breeze is expected to develop early in the afternoon. The
first day of hot temperatures starts as highs reach the low to
mid 90s, with mid to upper 80s in the mountains.
Trapped higher dew points in the valleys out west, combined with the
hot temperatures are forecast to produce heat indices around 100.
Heat Advisories might be needed for areas along the Potomac River
and surrounding highlands west of the Blue Ridge for Monday
afternoon. Elsewhere, heat indices are forecast between 95-100,
and should remain below Advisory criteria. The one area we`ll
have to look closely at is the immediate Western Shore where the bay
breeze brings dew points closer to 70F. Still, this yield heat
indices between 100-105 for a few hours, and that falls just below the
Advisory threshold for areas east of the Blue Ridge.
Limited instability and southwesterly winds in the Alleghenies allow
isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. These storms are most
likely to remain terrain locked, and dissipate in a short period
of time. Most of the convection dissipates by sunset. Dry, very
mild Monday night as lows settle in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong upper level ridging will remain overhead throughout the long
term period, with dry conditions and well above normal temperatures
expected. At the surface, high pressure builds over the region
throughout the week. The main weather hazard for next week will be
above normal temperatures. High temperatures east of the Alleghenies
will rise well into the 90s each day with increased humidity leading
to warming heat indices and record high temperatures possible. Heat
indices in the upper 90s are expected with lower to mid 100`s
possible. As the ridge axis pivots over the area, southerly winds
will shift to southeasterly. This will lead to temperatures on
Wednesday being a degree or two cooler compared to Tuesday. With
winds shifting to southeasterly, relative humidities will increase
leading to continued heat index concerns. Temperatures will continue
to warm Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Higher elevations will stay in the 90s. Heat advisories may be
needed at some point during the long term. While mostly dry
conditions are expected for most of next week, a stray afternoon
shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out for those in the westernmost
portions of the forecast area on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Monday as high pressure moves north
of the area, then offshore into the western Atlantic. Northerly
winds today become southeast to south Sunday into Monday.
VFR conditions are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with hot and
dry conditions expected at all terminals. Winds remain light,
blowing 5-10 knots, out of the south/southeast
&&
.MARINE...
Northerly winds continue to diminish early this afternoon, thus the
Small Craft Advisory has been dropped. Winds continue to lessen
tonight, and slowly turn easterly.
Winds turn southeast to south Sunday and Monday, with SCA conditions
possible each afternoon to early evening due to southerly channeling
in the middle Chesapeake Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac.
Southerly channeling will lead to possible SCA conditions both on
Tuesday. Winds diminish slightly on Wednesday, remaining out of the
south and gusting up to 15 knots. Outside of gusty winds, hot and
dry conditions are expected both days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels are forecast to increase at the start of the week due to
strengthening southerly flow. The most likely location that could
reach minor flood is Annapolis during the early Tuesday morning high
tide cycle. Other locations are forecast to reach Action Stage. By
mid week the winds are forecast to lessen, which should allow tidal
anomalies to remain stable and decrease slightly.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures are expected next week. Below is a list of record
high temperatures for June 17th through 21st, the year the record
was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days.
RERs are currently only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other
sites are shown for reference.
Monday Jun 17th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2022) 93F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (2022) 95F
Baltimore (BWI) 96F (2022+) 93F
Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1939+) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2022) 94F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1939) 88F
Hagerstown (HGR) 96F (1952) 95F
Tuesday Jun 18th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 96F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 96F
Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 94F
Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 94F
Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 94F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 89F
Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 95F
Wednesday Jun 19th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1994) 94F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1994) 94F
Baltimore (BWI) 99F (1994) 91F
Martinsburg (MRB) 96F (1994+) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 97F (2018) 93F
Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1993) 88F
Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1994) 95F
Thursday Jun 20th
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (1931) 95F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 97F (1964) 95F
Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1931) 93F
Martinsburg (MRB) 98F (1931) 93F
Charlottesville (CHO) 98F (1933) 94F
Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 88F
Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1931) 95F
Friday Jun 21st
Climate Site Record High Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 98F
Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 98F
Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 95F
Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F
Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 96F
Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 91F
Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 96F
+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with
the year displayed being the most recent.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ533-
534-537-542-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...KRR/AVS
MARINE...KRR/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR
CLIMATE...LWX