987
FXUS61 KLWX 251914
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
214 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the Mid-Atlantic tonight, followed by
a cold front crossing from west to east Wednesday morning. A second
stronger cold front will follow Wednesday afternoon and evening. Low
pressure will linger over southeastern Canada while high pressure
builds across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley through Friday. High
pressure will move overhead Saturday, then move offshore Sunday into
early next week as the next systems approach from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad area of low pressure attendant to a broad upper trough
over the Great Lakes extends a wavy warm front around the
Appalachians as of mid afternoon. Warm advection coupled with
ripples aloft ahead of the parent trough was bringing periods of
light rain mainly across northern Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Steadier rain will pivot from the Appalachians across the
Piedmont through early this evening as the low-level warm front
lifts north. Another wave of steadier rain will lift across the
Piedmont overnight through early Wednesday morning ahead of a
cold front associated with the Great Lakes low. In between
steadier rain, low clouds and patchy fog or drizzle is possible.

Temperatures will rise through the night with the passage of the
warm front. Although surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely
due to a low-level temperature inversion, some instability aloft
near and southeast of US-29 may result in a few thunderstorms
overnight which may be accompanied by brief downpours.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain and low clouds are expected to move swiftly east of the
area as the first cold front moves offshore Wednesday morning.
By Wednesday afternoon, a second (stronger) cold front will
surge across the upper Ohio River Valley and Appalachians. This
second front will then reach the metros by Wednesday evening.
Impressive pressure rises and cold air advection will ensue
behind this second front. Due to the abrupt change in airmass, a
period of gusty winds is likely right as/just after the front
passes during the afternoon and evening. Gusts could exceed 40
mph, especially over the higher terrain.

Although cold air advection continues through the night, the
strongest pressure rises will have passed. Occasionally gusty
winds will likely continue with more frequent gusts at higher
elevations during the overnight hours. Along and west of the
Allegheny Front, a trailing wave may result in a few snow
showers Wednesday night into Thursday (Thanksgiving) morning.
Wind trajectories aren`t the most favorable, but at least a
brief overlap of moisture and lift in the DGZ may result in a
quick coating to an inch in spots.

A few flurries may linger over the Appalachians crest Thursday.
Elsewhere, passing clouds and blustery conditions are expected.
It will be much colder Thursday compared to Wednesday by about
25 to 30 degrees areawide.

Yet another pressure surge likely keeps winds elevated through
Thursday night (especially at higher elevations). Combined with
plummeting temperatures, this will result in wind chills in the
20s and even teens Thursday evening (single digits over the
higher terrain). Another wave of snow showers is possible along
and west of the Allegheny Front Thursday night, as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We`ll remain within a cyclonic flow regime on Friday as a vertically
stacked area of low pressure centered over Quebec continues to
circulate off to our northeast. Northwesterly flow will continue to
advect cold air into the region, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping
to around -10 to -12 C. Even with deep mixing, this will only yield
high temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s for most (20s
mountains). Northwesterly winds gusting to around 30 to 40 mph
will make it feel even colder, with wind chills holding in the
20s through much of the day. There will be a mix of sun and clouds
across the area, with more clouds than sun off toward the northwest
(closer to influence from the Great Lakes) and less cloud cover
further southeast. A few upslope snow showers will also be possible
in the Alleghenies, with additional light accumulations of a coating
to two inches possible. A stray flurry or two could also sneak east
of the mountains, especially during the afternoon hours.

High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley for Friday night
into Saturday. With mostly clear skies and light to calm winds,
Friday night looks like it should be the coldest night of the
week, with temperatures dropping back into the upper teens and
lower 20s for most (mid to upper 20s in downtown DC and Baltimore).
Dry conditions and light winds are expected on Saturday, but high
clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next system approaching
from the center of the country. High temperatures on Saturday are
forecast to reach into the low to mid 40s for most (30s mountains).

Forecast uncertainty starts to increase markedly by Sunday and
Monday. On the synoptic scale, most model guidance shows a broad
longwave trough becoming established across much of the CONUS, with
flanking ridges in the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic. A
shortwave trough and associated surface low are progged to ascend
through the frontside of the ridge on Sunday, tracking through the
Great Lakes region. Such a track will lead to warm advection locally
atop a retreating cold airmass. Various deterministic and ensemble
solutions differ with respect to the timing of the onset of the
precipitation, and also with respect to how much cold air is left in
place. If the precipitation were to move in earlier, some freezing
rain could be possible, especially across higher elevation locations
to the west of the Blue Ridge. Model spread remains large with this
system, so for now it`s just something to monitor over the course of
the week. Eventually precipitation should transition over to rain
for all locations, with temperatures climbing into the 40s.

By Monday, model spread is particularly large. From a probabilistic
perspective, most solutions favor dry conditions, but there is still
around 30 percent of ensemble members that produce some light
precipitation. Amongst the members that do produce precipitation,
there`s fairly good agreement that it would occur in the form of
rain. There`s also large spread with respect to high temperatures,
with ensemble guidance showing high temperatures anywhere from the
upper 30s to the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases even further as the next system approaches
heading into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A wave of rain is expected to move across the terminals through
about 01Z this evening, accompanied by MVFR conditions. CIGs may
drop rather readily as this steadier rain exits, with IFR/LIFR
conditions possibly developing between 00Z-03Z. LLWS will
develop during this time as well as a warm front lifts north,
and may persist through much of the night. Another round of rain
is likely for many areas overnight after midnight through the
predawn hours Wednesday. The first cold front will pass the area
Wednesday morning resulting in a return to VFR.

A second (stronger) cold front will surge across the area late
Wednesday afternoon and evening resulting in a period of gusty
winds shifting to the west and northwest. Gusts of 30 to 40
knots are possible as the front crosses in the evening. Blustery
conditions likely continue at times through Thursday with VFR.

VFR conditions are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Winds will
gust to around 25-35 knots out of the northwest during the day
Friday. Winds will decrease rapidly Friday night into Saturday as
high pressure builds overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
At least occasional gusts of 15-25 knots are possible in
southerly/southeasterly flow heading into tonight, especially
over the wider waters south of Sandy Point MD. However, low-
level stability may result in periods of lulls. Winds will
shift slightly from southeast to southwest Wednesday with
somewhat occasional gusts likely continuing. A sharp wind shift
to the west and northwest with gusts to near gale force is
expected Wednesday evening as a second cold front surges across.
The winds currently look strongest Wednesday evening across the
northern waters which is where a Gale Warning has been issued.

Blustery conditions will continue through Thursday in northwest
flow. At least high-end SCA conditions appear likely within west to
northwesterly flow on Friday, and low-end Gale gusts can`t be ruled
out. SCA conditions may linger into Friday night, but winds are
expected to rapidly decrease late Friday night into Saturday as high
pressure builds over the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ530-531-
     538-539.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ530-531-535-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ535.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...DHOF/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/KJP