767
FXUS61 KLWX 011423
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1023 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds overhead through Monday as a low pressure
system tracks to the south. A cold front moves through the
forecast area Monday night before another cold front moves
through later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The 12Z KIAD sounding shows plenty of dry air aloft with a mid
level RH of 28 percent. Some high level clouds can be observed
on visible satellite with RH values in the upper levels of
around 70 to 80 percent. High level clouds will continue to
move in throughout the day. No changes were made to the forecast
with the previous forecast discussion below.

Today will be breezy due to a tightened pressure gradient with
the high building from the SW and residual low off to the NE.
Winds will be notably less than yesterday, but still gust to 20
to 25 mph. Clouds will increase through the day, especially
across western areas due to an approaching trough. Cannot rule
out a few showers across the Alleghenies tonight, but should
remain light.

Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s today (40s in the mtns).
Cooler than the past few nights tonight with the high briefly
building overhead (30s for most locales). Clouds will continue
to approach from the west, making it a thread the needle
situation in terms of full potential of radiation cooling.
Should this be realized, frost may form where the growing season
has not ended along/east of I-95 prompting the need for
advisories.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
More clouds Sunday than today, especially west of the Blue
Ridge as an UL trough approaches from the west. The associated
sfc low is forecasted to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline
Sunday night. NW extent of the precipitation shield looks to
get as far north as southern Maryland Sunday night into Monday
morning. Rain should not amount to much (less than a quarter
inch). If the low trends further NW, expansion of rain shield
Sunday night closer to D.C. is possible.

As the low pulls off to the northeast Monday, precipitation will
taper off. Have maintained slight chance PoPs generally
along/east of I-95 for much of Monday, but this may be bullish
depending on exact track of low. Regardless, rain will taper
through the day. Winds increase out of the northwest Monday
night in NW flow as the low pulls away.

Much of the same in terms of highs and lows Sunday into Monday.
Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows in the 30s to low
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A relatively quiet and seasonable stretch of weather is expected
next week. Low pressure will depart off into the Atlantic as high
pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Mostly sunny
skies and breezy conditions are expected, with highs generally in
the upper 50s and lower 60s (upper 40s to low 50s mountains). High
pressure will become centered overhead Tuesday night. Clear skies
and calm winds will enable temperatures to drop back into the 30s to
around 40. Frost may be possible in locations where the growing
season is still underway Tuesday night.

The flow pattern will start to amplify slightly by Wednesday as
troughing builds into the West Coast, ridging builds over the
Rockies, and shortwave troughing starts to develop downstream over the
Great Lakes. An area of low pressure will form over the Great Lakes
in response and track off to our north. While various sources of
guidance differ with respect to the strength of this system, most
solutions show conditions remaining dry, with a weak cold frontal
passage occurring Wednesday night. While cold advection will be
weak, there will be a surge of winds behind the system, leading to
gusty conditions Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will
then build back in again for Thursday night into Friday. Highs each
day next week should be in the upper 50s to mid 60s (upper 40s to
low 50s mountains).

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions today and Sunday as high pressure dominates the
weather pattern. Winds today will remain somewhat elevated for
all terminals except CHO, which should generally be AOB 10 kts
with gusts to 20/25 kts. Winds go calm tonight. Winds remain
light Sunday with no marine hazards expected. No wx impacts
expected Sunday night into Monday at terminals with main
precipitation shield staying to the southeast across southern
Maryland.

VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds may gust
to around 20 to 25 knots out of the northwest on Tuesday, before
turning out of the south to southwest on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have extended the SCA across all waters til daybreak, and the
SCA for the northern bay zones through mid-afternoon. Winds
should gust to 20-25 kts where the SCA remains in effect.
Elsewhere, winds generally less then 15 kts out of the
west/northwest. Winds die off tonight with high moving overhead.

No marine hazards expected Sunday. Winds northwest 5 to 10
knots becoming light and variable Sunday into Sunday night.

Winds become westerly Monday behind a cold front and could
flirt with SCA conditions into Monday night.

Small Craft Advisory level winds appear possible in northwesterly
flow on Tuesday, and then again within south to southwesterly flow
on Wednesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ530>532-538>540.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/CPB
SHORT TERM...CPB
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/CPB
MARINE...KJP/CPB