961
FXUS61 KLWX 231450
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
950 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in for today and Monday. Low pressure
will track off to our northwest on Wednesday, causing a strong
cold front to move through. Strong high pressure builds overhead
at the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An SPS has been issued for the Alleghenies through this
afternoon for wind gusts reaching 40 to 45mph. The strongest
gusts, potentially reaching up to 50mph along the ridges, will
be brief in nature. The 12Z KIAD sounding shows dry air aloft
leading to mostly sunny skies across the area this morning. The
exception is northeast MD where low clouds continue tracking
eastward. No other changes were made to the forecast with the
previous forecast discussion below.

High pressure will be in control to start the week supporting fair
weather conditions and above normal temperatures. High clouds
will be on the increase Monday afternoon, thickening and
lowering Monday night in warm air advection pattern. Precip
looks to hold off until after 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm advection showers will spread across the area during the
day Tuesday, exiting the area by daybreak Wednesday. Atmosphere
looks stable enough that thunder is not expected. Overnight
lows late Tue night into early Wed will be quiet mild with lows
in the 50s under thick cloud cover and southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The primary low pressure system will be moving through the Great
Lakes Wednesday, while a weaker lead low may be moving across the
local area. There`s some uncertainty how much precipitation will
occur, but with multiple boundary and the approaching upper level
trough, a chance of showers will remain. A few thunderstorms can`t
even be ruled out given mild weather/weak instability and strong
shear. Highs will reach the 60s and perhaps even 70 in spots. The
cold front will push through during the evening. Enough moisture
may linger for some upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies, but
duration should be fairly brief. Gusty winds will follow the front,
perhaps muted in the lower elevation during the overnight hours.
Gusty winds will continue Thursday with much colder temperatures.
Highs will likely remain in the 40s for most, and below freezing in
the Alleghenies. All areas will likely drop below freezing Thursday
night.

Surface high pressure will build across the area Friday and
Saturday. Precipitation chances are slim, but the jet stream
overhead and some warm/moist advection aloft may result in
increased cloud cover. Below normal temperatures will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs and vsby at CHO early this morning, otherwise, P6SM
SCT050-060 expected. Winds will be gusty during the afternoon
with gusts between 20-25 kt. Skies clear tonight and remain
clear through Mon morning. Increasing clouds Monday afternoon,
thickening and lowering Mon night, but no cig restrictions
expected. Showers arrive Tue and continue through Tue night.
Some flight restrictions are possible as well as LLWS.

Sub-VFR ceilings and showers remain possible Wednesday as a cold
front cross the area. Gusty west winds will follow the frontal
passage, with some gusts of 20-30 kt possible Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase tonight over the main Ches Bay channel in
northerly channeling, before diminishing Monday.

Stable conditions Tuesday-Tuesday night may inhibit full mixing
despite stronger pressure gradient. SCAs are still possible,
mainly over the lower waters.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late Wednesday
through Thursday as gusty west winds develop in the wake of a
cold front.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...AVS/LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR