376
FXUS61 KLWX 091805
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to our north through Friday. A coastal
low will develop off the southeast U.S. coast, and then track
northward up the East Coast this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure to the north wedges down the east side of the
Appalachians. This will result in light to calm winds tonight
especially over northern MD, the VA piedmont, and west of the
Blue Ridge. This will result in ideal radiational cooling and
the coldest night of the season thus far.

Frost and Freeze headlines were adjusted slightly, with enough
widespread freezing temperatures expected to justify a Freeze
Warning everywhere west of the Blue Ridge. Further east, urban
and marine influences and a bit of a light N/NE wind may keep
frost more on the patchy side the closer one gets to the I-95
corridor, but still expanding the advisory slightly into the
typically colder pockets/far northwest suburbs of DC/Baltimore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build off the New England coastline Friday
maintaining its influence across the region. Mostly sunny skies
are expected to the west of the Blue Ridge, with potentially a
few fair weather clouds developing to the east of I-95,
especially during the afternoon. Winds will turn out of the east
to southeast, but temperatures will remain below normal with
highs in the mid 60s for most (mid 50s/near 60 in the mountains).

A coastal low will deepen off the southeast U.S. coastline
Friday night into Saturday as a deep, closed upper low
simultaneously drifts southeastward across the Great Lakes.
Eventually, these two systems will interact as the coastal low
feels the northward pull of the induced southerly winds ahead of
the upper low. This interaction will eventually draw the coastal
low northward toward the Mid-Atlantic, with most guidance
showing the coastal low tracking northward off the Carolina
coast Saturday into Saturday night. This interaction between the
closed upper low and the coastal low is a very delicate one,
and will be very difficult for forecast models to get correct
this far out in time. As a result, there is a much higher than
normal amount of uncertainty regarding the details of the
forecast this weekend. In terms of sensible weather, chances for
showers and also winds will be on the increase locally Saturday
afternoon, and especially Saturday night into Sunday (covered
below in the Long Term discussion). Just how much rain we see
and how strong the winds get will depend on the ultimate track
of the low, which remains uncertain at this time horizon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper low over the Great Lakes will phase with the upper-
level energy associated with the coastal low developing off the
Carolinas on Sunday. This will lead to substantial strengthening
of the low, but will also pull it towards the north closer to
our region. Rain will likely be ongoing Sunday morning and will
remain present in some capacity likely through Monday. Rainfall
could be heavy at times, but flooding isn`t a high end concern
given the ongoing rainfall deficit. Of course, should heavy rain
occur over sensitive areas, can never rule out some issues in
that scenario. Winds will also be increasing substantially for
the whole area during this timeframe, with strongest winds over
the waters and adjacent shorelines. Many spots east of the Blue
Ridge could see frequent 20-30 mph gusts, depending on just how
close the low gets to our area. Areas closer to shore could be
closer to 30-40 mph, with stronger gusts on the waters during
the peak Sunday afternoon/evening, or perhaps Monday depending
on the exact evolution of the low as it spirals nearby.

Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into the first half of
Monday as the coastal low meanders off the Delmarva Peninsula.

There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation
impacts should taper off by late Monday into early Tuesday as the
low shifts further to the east. However, it remains close enough
that winds may still remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

High pressure will then return to the region in the wake of
this storm system bringing a return to mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist at the terminals through Friday
night. Sub-VFR conditions may be possible at times Saturday into
Saturday night as a coastal low approaches from the south.
However, forecast uncertainty is high regarding the track of the
low and resultant impacts locally.

Winds will either be light out of the northeast or calm tonight,
turn out of the east/southeast Friday, and then increase out of
the east/northeast on Saturday. Depending on the track of the
low, winds may become quite gusty by Saturday night.

Sub-VFR conditions are likely Sunday and Monday as a strong area of
low pressure impacts the region bringing rain and gusty winds.
Winds on Sunday will be out of the N to NE around 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 30 kts, especially at DCA, BWI, and MTN. Winds
will shift to the N/NW on Monday, and will be a bit lighter
overall, but not by much especially near/east of I-95.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds may approach borderline SCA levels out of the northeast
tonight over the mid Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Light east to
southeast winds are then expected Friday into Friday night.

Winds will increase out of the east on Saturday as a coastal low
approaches from the south. SCA level winds appear likely within
easterly flow Saturday into Saturday night, and depending on
the track of the low, gusts may reach gale-force by late
Saturday night. Gale Watches remain in effect, and may need to
be extended in time. It should be noted that some guidance has a
period of storm-force winds in the vicinity of southern MD.

The Gale Watch extends through Sunday night in response to the
ongoing coastal low pressure system. This could be one of the higher
end gale events as forecast wind gusts are around 40-45 knots
during the peak late Sunday into Monday morning with waves in
the 5-7 foot range, particularly over the wider portions of the
Chesapeake Bay. These conditions will continue into Monday as
well, with gales likely needing to be extended into this
period, but it is just a bit too far out in the forecast period
at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies will rapidly rebound through Friday as northerly
winds begin to decrease and turn easterly. Minor coastal
flooding appears likely Friday at Annapolis within onshore flow,
and may occur at other sites as well. Additional coastal
flooding appears likely this weekend as a coastal low develops
to our south and moves up the East Coast. The worst of the
coastal flooding would likely occur on Sunday. Depending on the
ultimate track of the low, potentially significant coastal
flooding could occur. However, forecast uncertainty remains high
this far out.

On the back end of this system, strong N/NW winds could push
tides out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions.
Low Water Advisories may need to be considered, but it is still
a bit too far out to be certain at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ004>006-008-
     503-505-507-508.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for MDZ003-501-502-
     509-510.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ038>040-050-
     051-501-502-505-506-526.
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ025>031-503-
     504.
WV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP
NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP
SHORT TERM...DHOF/KJP
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/KJP
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX