960
FXUS61 KLWX 021900
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
200 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore through early Monday as a cold
front crosses the Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure will
develop off the Carolinas and move northeast out to sea Monday
night. High pressure will return Tuesday into Wednesday, then
another cold front will cross the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. High pressure will briefly build over the area
again Thursday into Friday before another cold front approaches
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Waves of high clouds continue to pivot northeastward across the
area, densest west of US-15. Near the Appalachians, some mid-
level clouds have occasionally been popping out a few raindrops,
but not much of consequence and likely not measurable.

As surface low pressure develops off the Southeast coast
tonight, high clouds will clear out west of I-81 while
thickening to the east. Low temperatures plummet into the 30s
for most west of the Blue Ridge/Catoctin Mountains, while
holding in the 40s to the east due to cloud cover.

By late in the overnight, rain from the developing offshore low
sends its northwestern reaches up into central Virginia and
southern Maryland. Brief very light rain is possible into the DC
and Baltimore metros and southeast suburbs by around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks along the
Carolina coast, precipitation chances linger for the I-95
corridor and into southern Maryland Monday morning. Dry
conditions and increased cloud cover can be expected elsewhere.
By Monday afternoon, low pressure and any associated rain should
pull away to the east with gradual clearing expected.

A cold front is progged to cross the area Monday night. This
will bring winds out of the northwest Monday night into Tuesday
as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Some gusty
winds are possible immediately behind the front Monday evening,
especially over the higher terrain where breezy conditions could
linger through early Tuesday morning.

Downsloping flow is favorable to bring down some dry air Tuesday,
so depending on how strong the winds are Tuesday could be a
Fire Wx day (see section below).

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday
with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of low pressure will slide by well to our north on
Wednesday, pushing a dry cold front through the region into
Wednesday night. Ahead of this boundary, gusty southerly flow is
expected across the region, with gusts around 20-30 mph. A very dry
air mass ahead of this front will yield very little moisture over
the region, with only a slight chance of precip in the forecast over
the Alleghenies at this time. Coming off of Tuesday`s fire weather
concerns, those will linger into Wednesday as well. See details in
the Fire Weather discussion below. Temperatures will be above
average for this time of year, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 for
most (50s to low 60s in the mountains).

Behind this system, another dry day can be expected Thursday under
the influence of high pressure. Expect temperatures to come back
down to the upper 50s to low 60s (mid 40s to low 50s in the
mountains).

By Friday, a more substantial upper trough starts to dig towards the
Ohio Valley as high pressure retreats offshore. A stronger frontal
passage is expected late Friday into Saturday, but exact timing
still needs to be worked out as we get closer in time. At first
glance, this system seems like it should be better connected to
moisture coming out of the Gulf of America, and thus should result
in some rain across the region. However, at this stage, it is too
early for any exact details. Any shift in the surface and upper-
level features at play could yield another dry frontal passage,
which could lead to other hazards. So for now, this is just
something to keep an eye on over the coming days.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through tonight as high pressure moves
offshore and a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will
remain southeasterly through the early evening, then become
light northeast to calm by late in the evening. Winds then
become light west/northwest by Monday morning. Some rain may
approach CHO/DCA from the southeast, but restrictions should be
very limited and brief if they occur at all.

On Monday, low pressure to the south will yield increased cloud
cover and lingering precipitation chances mainly east of I-95
during the morning hours. Not expecting any restrictions with
this precipitation largely being east of all TAF sites.

The cold front will pass by Monday evening bringing winds out
of the northwest and VFR conditions. Gusts of 15-25 kts are
possible with the frontal passage, possibly briefly slightly
higher Monday evening with more occasional gusts overnight. VFR
and northwest breezes gusting 15-20 kts are anticipated Tuesday
with lighter winds Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday. There
will be a notable cold frontal passage late Wednesday into
Wednesday night with an outside chance of a shower at MRB,
however. This front will shift winds from the south Wednesday to
the northwest Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Daytime
speeds of 10-15 kts are anticipated, with gusts of 20-25 kts
especially during the day on Thursday when a few gusts over 30
kts are possible. Winds turn back to the south Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southeast flow becomes northeast by late evening, then
west to northwest by Monday morning. A cold front will cross by
late Monday afternoon kicking up winds out of the northwest.
A brief period of sporadic gusts 30-35 knots can`t be ruled out
immediately behind the front with forecast soundings indicating
such winds around 1500 feet above the surface with a very
shallow stable layer and notable pressure rises in the evening.
Some of these stronger gusts may linger over the wider waters
overnight. Residual SCA caliber northwesterlies are expected
through midday Tuesday, possibly a bit longer. Lighter winds are
expected Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

Southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday could
result in gusts of 15-20 knots. The cold front should come through
mainly dry Wednesday night, turning winds to the northwest. Speeds
will increase with gusts of 20-30 knots possible through Thursday,
diminishing Thursday night. There is an outside chance of gale
conditions late Wednesday night into Thursday if the front
comes through a bit stronger. Winds turn southerly Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry frontal boundary will push through the region on Monday, with
a very dry air mass following in its wake on Tuesday. Winds will be
out of the W to NW on Tuesday with gusts around 15-20 mph,
mainly north of the I-66 corridor. Further south, and down into
the Shenandoah Valley, winds will be closer to 8 to 14 mph or
so. At any rate, this will be just enough wind, that when paired
with RHs potentially into the teens and low 20s in a reasonable
driest case scenario, causes some concern for potential
hazardous conditions for wildfire spread. Recent rains have
certainly been beneficial, but by this point we will be several
days removed from that. Some breezy days have further allowed
for drying of fine fuels in the region, especially when paired
with the long term dryness. While this isn`t a slam dunk day in
terms of high end fire weather, it is certainly looking like it
could be one of the driest days we have seen this fall so far.

Winds will pick up substantially on Wednesday and turn out of the
south. Typically this should result in a substantial increase
in RH, but that isn`t always the case, as will be seen on
Wednesday. Current forecasts call for afternoon RH values in the
mid to upper 30s in the valleys, owing to a very dry air mass
in the source region of that southerly flow. When paired with
20-30 mph southerly wind gusts, this could result in another
potentially hazardous day for wildfire spread.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB
NEAR TERM...DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CPB
LONG TERM...DHOF/CJL
AVIATION...DHOF/CJL/CPB
MARINE...DHOF/CJL/CPB
FIRE WEATHER...CJL