931
FXUS61 KLWX 300726
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds south from eastern Canada through much of the
week. A strong cold front will track across the area tonight
bringing cooler and drier weather for the middle and latter part
of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Very light rain has made it as far north as BWI early this
morning, but will start getting pushed southward later this
morning as low-level drier air, particularly at 850 mb,
advects in on strengthening NNE winds. By 18Z today, most of the
rain should be out, except perhaps across central VA along and
south of I-64 where the rain will linger the longest. Otherwise,
a thick mid-high level overcast will persist today with gradual
thining this evening, then clearing overnight. A strong cold
front will then cross the area tonight bringing a cooler air
mass for the middle and latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Building high pressure from Quebec will be the main story for
the middle and second half of the week supporting clear skies
Wed and Wed night. NNE to NE winds will start shifting more to
the E Thu as high pressure over the Northeast slides offshore.
Models show more cloud cover Thu with a stratocu deck developing as
onshore winds develop. Temps will cool down Wed and Thu with
highs around 70 and falling into the 40s west of I-95. Some
patchy frost can`t be ruled out in the most sheltered valleys
west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Strong surface high pressure will remain along the eastern seaboard
through the weekend, perhaps drifting slowly eastward early next
week. Initially rather flat ridging aloft will expand eastward and
amplify by early next week as a series of troughs move through
the western part of the continent. Dry conditions should
prevail, although there are some hints some moisture could start
wrapping around the ridge from the south by Monday. Below
normal temperatures on Friday will moderate back above normal
over the course of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Mid-high level overcast today will gradually thin out this
evening with clearing expected overnight. Onshore winds Thu may
result in a stratocumulus deck. NNE winds will strengthen
tonight into Wed with gusts up to 20 kt possible. Winds begin to
diminish later Wednesday.

No significant weather is expected Friday and Saturday as strong
high pressure remains overhead.

&&

.MARINE...

N to NNE winds will strengthen today into Wednesday with SCA
conditions expected. Winds will begin to gradually diminish
later Wednesday, but SCA conditions may persist into Thu
evening.

Winds will become southerly Friday, but should remain below advisory
criteria into Saturday as high pressure remains centered nearby.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

North to northeast winds are forecast to strengthen today into
Wednesday as strong high pressure builds in from the north. This
is going to keep tidal anomalies in check.

The threat for widespread minor coastal flooding, and possible
moderate coastal flooding at Annapolis could occur during the late
part of the week. This will be due to a snapback tide when the
strong northeast winds start to diminish Wednesday night, then turn
east to southeast Thursday afternoon into Friday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ530>533-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
     Wednesday night for ANZ534-537-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ535-536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/LFR
MARINE...ADS/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR