074
FXUS61 KLWX 261508
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1008 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross from west to east this morning. A
second stronger cold front will follow this afternoon and
evening. Low pressure will linger over southeastern Canada while
high pressure builds across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley
through Friday. High pressure will move overhead Saturday, then
move offshore Sunday into early next week as the next system
approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent occluded low remains centered over the Great Lakes
this morning, with a powerful cold front currently dropping
through the Ohio Valley. This will be the cold front that pushes
through later today, ushering in a substantial and long-lasting
cold air mass into the region. For now though, the warm front
associated with this system has lifted through the region, with
very mild conditions expected this morning into the afternoon.

Temperatures will quickly rise through the 60s before the cold
front crosses the area. Winds will be gradually shifting from S
to SW later this morning, but true cold front and moisture
discontinuity do not cross the area until just after noon.
Bufkit soundings show significant uncertainty on the onset
timing of gusty WNW post-frontal winds with the real push of
winds not until perhaps this evening due to a very strong low-
level inversion/poor mixing heights all day. The only exception
is at the higher elevations, where the pressure gradient and
strong CAA winds support borderline gusts to around 40 kt
tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the higher
elevations from roughly 00Z Thu through 13Z Thu. Turning sharply
colder tonight and becoming breezy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Much colder and blustery conditions for Thanksgiving Day and
Friday. The strongest winds will be Friday with frequent gusts
to 35 mph expected. Winds begin to subside Friday night as high
pressure starts building in. Cold with lows in the 20s, teens
in the mountains and wind chills in the teens and single digits
respectively.

Additionally, there is growing concern for a decent upslope
snow event Thursday night into Friday. A powerful shortwave will
will push into the Allegheny Front late Thursday evening into
Friday. This system may not have the greatest connection to
moisture from the Great Lakes region, but there seems to be just
enough to at least get some snow showers along/west of the
Allegheny Front. Forecasts soundings show some CAPE within the
DGZ during this period as well, suggesting that this could at
least briefly be somewhat convective in nature. Additionally,
temperatures will be falling into the teens and low 20s, thus
leading to very high SLRs. While QPF amounts are still very much
in question, what does fall should accumulate very efficiently
given the above factors. Planning to increase snowfall amounts
during this period with the next update. As of right now, should
fall short of advisory criteria, primarily due to the
aforementioned weak moisture transport out of the Great Lakes.
At any rate, it is something to watch for on Friday morning for
those driving in the area following the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will promote dry conditions Saturday. Temperatures
will be chilly and nearly 10 degrees below average for late
November with highs in the lower to middle 40s. The high pressure
will move to the east Saturday night into Sunday to allow for a warm
front to approach from the southwest. With low level cold air in
place early Sunday and some moisture running overtop of it from
the southwest, a light cold rain could evolve from west to east
across the region Sunday. A few places in the northwest and west
could encounter some snowflakes with light rain or drizzle Sunday
morning. Sunday`s highs will be chilly but not as cold as Saturday
with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 40s and perhaps low
50s near the Chesapeake Bay.

A cold front is expected to move across the region late Sunday and
Sunday night. Additional rain showers could form along it before dry
air moves in from the northwest as high pressure builds in on the
backside of the cold front. Some overrunning moisture over
the cold front could allow for a slight chance or chance of
additional rain showers Monday and Tuesday as well. Temperatures
will remain below average with highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low clouds have been a little slower to move out of the area
this morning, so pushed IFR conditions back a couple of hours
with the 15Z AMDs. But overall, VFR conditions should return in
the next few hours for the sites where it hasn`t already done
so.

Significant uncertainty as to the onset of gusty WNW winds this
afternoon or tonight. Once stronger winds aloft begin to mix
down, expect gusty winds through Fri. The strongest winds are
expected Fri when gusts to 30 kt are expected.

VFR conditions Saturday through Sunday night. If a persistent
batch or moderate intensity of rain moves across MRB, there
could be a reduction to MVFR or IFR in ceilings. Winds
northwest becoming southeast and light Saturday and Saturday
night. Winds mainly south to southwest Sunday, before shifting
to northwest with cold frontal passage late Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Significant uncertainty as to the onset of gusty WNW winds due
to strong inversion. Gales will likely have a pretty sudden
onset later this afternoon/evening along/just behind the strong
cold front moving through later this afternoon. SMWs will likely
be issued ahead of the onset of Gale-force winds, given this
sudden onset potential.

High-end SCA conditions continue through Thanksgiving Day and
again into Friday. Can`t completely rule out some Gale-Force
gusts throughout this period, particularly on Friday. Highest
likelihood of these stronger gusts would be generally north of
the Bay Bridge, and in the upper Potomac waters around DC.

Winds should drop off below SCA Saturday as high pressure
returns briefly.

No marine hazards expected Saturday through Sunday night. Winds
northwest becoming southeast Saturday and Saturday night. Winds
southerly 5 to 10 knots Sunday, then shifting west to northwest 10
knots Sunday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ008.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     VAZ503.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     WVZ501-503-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-538-539.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ530-531-535-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ532>534-
     536-537-540>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/CJL
SHORT TERM...LFR/CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL
MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL