808
FXUS61 KLWX 191956
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedging high pressure will keep things dry and cloudy through
Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from the Ohio and mid-
Mississippi River Valleys will bring another round of rain to the
region Friday into Friday night. A cold front will swing through the
area early Saturday with high pressure building over the central
Appalachians Sunday into Monday. Another wave of low pressure and
front look to cross the area Tuesday into the middle part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cloud cover remains firmly entrenched across most of central,
southern, and western MD as well as northern VA. Clearing or
thinning of cloud cover has taken place along and south of a line
from US-33/48 (i.e Petersburg, WV over toward
Luray/Charlottesville, VA). Expect this trend to continue for the
remainder of the afternoon with some potential thinning as far north
as northern VA and into the eastern WV panhandle. Overall cloud
cover will remain locked into these areas as well as across much of
Maryland given the north/northeast component to the winds and
wedging high pressure east of the Appalachians. This will lead to a
weak/hybrid CAD setup as low pressure departs further off the
NJ/Delmarva coast and high pressure shifts east into the New England
states. At the same time, a stalled frontal boundary will remain
down around the VA/NC line with small ripples of energy pushing
through. The most notable will be another wave of low pressure that
will traverse this boundary as it works through the Mid-South into
the TN/OH River Valleys later in the workweek. This low pressure
system combined with the stalled front and wedging high will further
the extra cloud cover across the area.

Expect temperatures to hold steady in the low to mid 50s with 40s
over the higher terrain for the remainder of the afternoon due to
cloud cover. Portions of the central VA Piedmont/Shenandoah Valley,
especially south of I-64 (in southern Nelson, Albemarle, and Augusta
counties) will see highs in the upper 50s and low 60s due to the
added sunshine. Cloud cover will eventually fill back into these
areas overnight.

Cloud cover will remain persistent overnight with some areas of
patchy fog (mainly for those that cleared out this
afternoon/evening). This is due largely in part to remnant low-level
moisture and light/calm winds as the wedge of high pressure settles
overhead. Fog should be patchy in nature although could become a bit
more widespread south of of I-66/US-50 if clouds can thin out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover remains prevalent Thursday as high pressure stays wedged
in against the eastern face of the Appalachians. This will lead to
another cool and gray day ahead with highs ranging from the upper
40s along the PA/MD line to mid and upper 50s over the central VA
Piedmont/Shenandoah Valley. Dry conditions are expected throughout
the day and into the night with cloud cover thickening as low
pressure advances from the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. With the
added cloud cover expect lows Thursday night to fall back into the
upper 30s and low to mid 40s.

Rain chances return after a brief reprieve during the midweek
period. Synoptically, we remain in a split flow jet pattern with the
northern stream remaining much more amplified compared to the
southern stream. This will in turn drive our local weather pattern
through the upcoming weekend ahead. The next trough of low pressure
looks to work across the Hudson Bay/northern Great Lakes into
eastern Canada/New England Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, southern
stream low pressure will work across the mid-Mississippi and the
lower Ohio River Valleys into the VA/NC Piedmont during the same
aforementioned timeframe. Both of these systems will deliver another
round of widespread light to perhaps moderate rain to the region
early Friday morning into late Friday night. Rainfall amounts
overall appear to be light with another tenth of an inch to quarter
of an inch expected. Locally heavier amounts are possible along the
terrain.

Rain chances continue overnight Friday into Saturday morning as a
cold front advances toward the area. With the rain and added cloud
cover expect lows Friday night to fall into mid to upper 40s and low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A split jet pattern persists into the weekend and much of next week
as well. Within the amplified northern stream, the initial longwave
trough will be pushing toward Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on
Saturday. In the wake, an additional trough begins to dig across
much of eastern Canada down into New England on Monday. Looking to
the southern stream, a strong upper low is expected to eject out of
northwestern Mexico toward the Four Corners region this weekend. As
this system accelerates across the middle of the country, it does
begin to pick up speed as it evolves into a broad open wave. The
associated height falls are likely to reach the Mid-Atlantic region
by Tuesday. Looking out to the middle of next week, a broad longwave
trough sweeps across the central U.S. This system would eventually
track toward the Eastern Seaboard in time for the Thanksgiving
holiday period.

The surface pattern will carry an exiting cold front during the
first half of Saturday. Some residual morning rain showers are
looking likely before drier air works its way in from the north and
west. High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend into
portions of Monday. This will allow for a period of tranquil weather
before rain chances return by Tuesday. The mentioned southern stream
feature should have access to a greater deal of moisture.
Consequently, rain chances have risen to around 40 to 60 percent for
Tuesday. This could linger into part of Wednesday before an
additional system approaches well to the west. Overall temperatures
stay fairly seasonable throughout the extended period. Daily highs
will largely range from the 50s to low/mid 60s (mainly 40s across
the mountains). The coolest nights are likely to be on Saturday and
Sunday with high pressure nearby. Widespread 30s are expected for
each of those nights.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main impact to aviation for the rest of today looks to be low
ceilings. This is due in part to departing high pressure off the
NJ/Delmarva coast and wedging high pressure east of the
Appalachians. Some breaks in the clouds have been noted south of
KMRB toward KCHO/KSHD/KLYH and KRIC where a VFR cigs remain.
Elsewhere, within the corridor MVFR conditions continue to prevail
with cigs hovering between 1500-3500 feet between IAD, DCA, and BWI.
Expect MVFR conditions to continue through the 00z/6pm TAF period at
the big 3 airports as well as at MRB and MTN. CHO will continue
to remain VFR through 00z with VFR conditions making it back
into MRB and IAD before the 00Z TAF issuance. Winds will remain
light out of the north and northeast through this evening before
turning calm overnight. Some patchy fog is possible overnight
into Thursday morning with vsbys ranging between 4-6SM amongst
the terminals. CHO has the greatest potential to drop below 2SM
tonight.

Sub-VFR conditions look to return overnight into Thursday morning as
cigs lower once again. Winds will shift around to the southeast
Thursday late morning into the afternoon which may help lift
ceilings back to VFR and high end MVFR. Periods of lower ceilings
are possible ahead of a warm front Thursday night through Friday
with light showers developing ahead of an approaching low pressure
system.

Steady light south to southeast winds should keep ceilings mostly in
the MVFR range, though brief periods of IFR or lower are possible at
times, especially north and west of the corridor terminals Thursday
night.Showers will lead to additional restrictions Friday into
early Saturday morning.Some residual restrictions are likely
on Saturday morning as frontal showers exit off toward the south
and east. VFR conditions should return by the afternoon as
drier air moves in from the north. High pressure builds in for
the second half of the weekend allowing for continued fair
weather. Winds become southerly by Sunday before shifting to
westerly on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Expanded the Small Craft Advisories across middle portions of the
tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay for the remainder of the afternoon
due to northerly channeling. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible at
times through this evening. Small Craft Advisories will remain over
the open waters of the lower tidal Potomac and Chesapeake Bay
through this evening with winds lightening overnight as wedging high
pressure strengthens.

Winds will dip below sub-SCA levels Thursday with wedging high
pressure over the area. Winds will remain light Thursday morning
before switching to the southeast Thursday afternoon and evening as
the wedge of high pressure buckles. Winds may increase to near SCA
levels ahead of the low (depending on track/strength) late Friday,
and in northerly channeling that may begin late Friday night.

The main period of any hazardous marine conditions would be on
Saturday morning through the afternoon given northerly channeling
effects. Gusts up to 20 knots are looking likely which would warrant
Small Craft Advisories across portions of the waters. Overall wind
fields drop through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week. Winds on Sunday afternoon/evening shift to southerly before
turning westerly by Monday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ532-
     533-536-537-540>542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/EST
MARINE...BRO/EST