051
FXUS61 KLWX 100734
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
334 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our north will move offshore through tonight. A
powerful coastal low will develop off the southeast U.S. coast, then
track northward up the East Coast this weekend into early next week.
High pressure builds in toward the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered over souther New England this morning will
steadily shift offshore through tonight. This is going to cause our
winds to veer east to southeast and increase this afternoon. Slightly
warmer temps than yesterday, though still slightly below normal for
mid-October, in the low to mid 60s. Dry conditions are expected to
persist through tonight. More cloud cover builds in to the area
today as the easterly flow drags in marine stratocu. This will
mostly be noticeable east of the Blue Ridge, with mostly sunny skies
to the west. There is likely to be a decent temp gradient across the
area tonight, with a marine influenced airmass along/east of I-95
keeping lows in the 50s along the bay, to upper 30s to low 40s west
of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An impressive and complex synoptic pattern will produce a coastal
low that tracks up the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing a myriad of
hazards to the region this weekend into early next week.

Starting at the surface, an area of high pressure offshore of
southern New England moves further offshore on Saturday. The
interaction between the departing high and the developing coastal
low off the Carolinas is going to tighten the pressure gradient
significantly from the Delmarva southward. This will become more
noticeable Saturday night into Sunday as breezy conditions develop
areawide.

A mid-level cutoff low over southern GA/northern FL is going to
provide the initial support for the development of the coastal low
off the Carolina coastline on Saturday. An elongated upper-level
trough sets up from the eastern Great Lakes to the eastern Gulf on
Saturday. At the same time, a different mid-level shortwave over
southern Ontario cuts off and slowly drifts south toward PA/western
NY. Th two mid-level cutoffs begin to interact Sunday, eventually
phasing into a large, deep, sharp trough that spans most of the
entire U.S. East Coast. The trough looks to take on a negative tilt
during or before the merge, that will only amplify the upper-level
support directly over the surface low pressure. The coastal low
slows as it moves between the VA Tidewater and Delmarva, likely
remaining in that area for around 36-48 hours (through Monday
night).

One big uncertainty that will determine what, if any, impacts occur
in our area is where exactly the surface low tracks. There are still
substantial differences in the 00Z global guidance and their
ensembles, enough that a decision cannot be made for any additional
hazard headlines at this time. Another interesting difference in the
models is the elongation of the frontal zone into a large comma
shape - as seen on the GFS where the frontal / baroclinic zone is
displaced well to the north of the surface low. The Euro meanwhile
redevelops the low within the frontal zone east of the Delmarva.

Locally, Saturday starts of dry for most as some showers start to
approach the I-95 corridor after sunrise. By the afternoon, there
will likely be passing showers east of the Blue Ridge. A steady rain
overspreads the area late Saturday night and remains in place
through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are possible
along/east of a line from Hagerstown to Warrenton to Fredericksburg.
To the west of this line rainfall amounts of half to three quarters
of an inch are possible. The heaviest rain, possibly up to 3"
locally, is possible along the Western Shore of the Chesapeake.

Sunday is going to be breezy across the area, especially east of the
Blue Ridge. Winds are forecast to gust between 25-35 mph, and up to
40-45 mph along the Western Shore. Though not explicit in this
forecast, Wind Advisories might be needed for parts of the area
depending on how strong the wind field is as the coastal low makes
its closest approach. Winds aloft are going to be very strong
(upwards of 50-60 knots at 850mb), so it is not out of the question
for some of that to mix down to the surface.

Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to around 70F, then only in the 60s on
Monday in persistent showery, breezy conditions. Overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation chances and breezy conditions continue Monday as a
coastal low pressure system tracks offshore away from the forecast
area. Conditions are expected to dry out areawide Monday afternoon
and into the overnight as surface high pressure builds in overhead.
A tight pressure gradient between high and low pressure will yield
gusty northwest winds each day with gusts up to 25 knots possible
each afternoon.

Dry conditions continue Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure
remains overhead. Cloud cover decreases through the long term period
as dry air moves in aloft. Temperatures each day will be in the 60s
to low 70s for most with higher elevations staying in the 50s.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s each night.
Wednesday and Thursday night will be the coolest nights of the
period with temperatures in the 40s for most. The exception will be
the metro areas, which will stay in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. Winds turn
east to southeast this afternoon, bringing in marine stratocu around
5KFT for the I-95 terminals.

A coastal low develops along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend,
then moves north along the Mid-Atlantic coast through the start of
next week. This is going to bring showers, some steady rain, breezy
conditions and likely sub-VFR conditions Saturday evening through
Sunday night.

Sub-VFR conditions remain possible Monday morning as precipitation
lingers due to a nearby coastal low. VFR conditions return Monday
evening and persist through Tuesday as high pressure builds
overhead. Northwest winds gust 20-25 knots for metro terminals with
MRB and CHO gusting 15-20 knots. Winds lighten slightly on Tuesday,
gusting 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our north will bring one final day of good marine
conditions with east winds around 10 to 15 knots. A coastal low
begins to develop off the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend,
then tracks up the coast toward the Delmarva through the early part
of next week. This is going to bring a prolonged period of hazardous
marine conditions to all of the waters. A Gale Watch is in effect
for all the waters Saturday evening through Sunday night. Frequent
wind gusts of 35-45 knots are likely most of Sunday, with occasional
gusts around 50 knots possible.

Gale conditions continue Monday as winds gust near 40 knots across
the Bay. Winds weaken slightly overnight Monday into Tuesday, with
high end Small Craft Advisories likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Winds turning east to southeast today will push tidal anomalies up,
likely bringing most locations to Action Stage during high tide
through this evening. Minor coastal flooding is forecast at
Annapolis this evening. Additional coastal flooding is likely this
weekend as a coastal low develops to our south and moves up the East
Coast.

Depending on the ultimate track of the low, potentially significant
coastal flooding could occur. However, there is a lot of uncertainty
in the forecast this far out, especially for Sunday into early next
week. It is possible that water remains trapped in the middle bay,
leading to coastal flooding from Annapolis southward, but tides
lower significantly in the northern bay.

On the back end of this system, strong N/NW winds could push tides
out rapidly, potentially leading to blowout conditions everywhere.
Low Water Advisories may need to be considered, but it is still a
bit too far out to be certain at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ004>006-008-
     503-505-507-508.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003-501-502-
     509-510.
     Coastal Flood Watch from this afternoon through this evening
     for MDZ014.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ038>040-050-
     051-501-502-505-506-526.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ025>031-503-
     504.
WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>506.
MARINE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRR
NEAR TERM...KRR
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KRR
MARINE...AVS/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR