


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
195 FXUS61 KLWX 180723 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 323 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure shifts offshore today, ahead of a potent low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the Great Lakes region. The cold front pushes through the forecast area on Sunday, bringing rainfall and gusty winds. Another cold front pushed through the region midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Primarily dry conditions continue today as high pressure shifts offshore. Return flow ushers in warmer air with high temperatures rising into the 70s for most. A few isolated locations in the southern portions of the forecast area may reach the 80s. The exception will be highest elevations and NE Maryland where temperatures stay in the 60s. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies in the morning will dissipate and give way to sunny skies in the afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will continue to warm slightly from previous nights with lows in the 50s for most. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough over the central plains Sunday morning will become negatively tilted as it swiftly approaches the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a potent cold front will approach the forecast area from the northwest throughout the day before pushing through Sunday afternoon and into the overnight. While instability remains limited with the frontal passage, strong forcing given the negatively tilted trough will yield gusty winds as rain showers track from west to east. A line of gusty showers will enter the forecast area along the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon before tracking eastward through the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has the forecast area in a Marginal risk for severe weather with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts due to a strong wind field aloft. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s for most with higher elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight lows will be cooler than the previous night, with temperatures in the 40s for those west of the I-95 corridor and 50s elsewhere. Precipitation chances linger Monday morning as the front remains nearby. Cloud cover gradually decreases throughout the day as surface high pressure briefly builds overhead in the wake of the frontal system. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler compared to Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak surface high pressure will build back into the area from the south briefly Tuesday before another potent trough of low pressure and cold front cut across the Mid-Atlantic region. The next front looks to cross late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning bringing a limited chance of rainfall. Some snowflakes may even mix in over the mountains at elevations above 3000 feet within favorable upslope flow. 850 mb temperatures look to drop between -2 and +2 degrees C Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. This will yield highs Wednesday in the upper 30s and mid 40s over the mountains with mid 50s and low 60s, elsewhere across the region heading into midweek. A stark contract from highs in the mid 60s and low 70s Tuesday ahead of the cold frontal boundary. As for rainfall amounts, it won`t be enough to quell the current drought, but may stave off any fire weather concerns for a day or two. SOmething that will have to closely watch in the coming days. Broad upper level troughing looks to persists through the back half of the workweek with high pressure over the southeast U.S and over the Midwest region. Surface high pressure will settle over the southern Appalachians Wednesday into Thursday before another weak front and trough of low pressure cross Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain at or below average through the back half of the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions continue through Sunday morning with light winds and dry conditions expected. South winds blow 5 to 10 knots today as cloud cover decreases throughout the day. Light south winds continue tonight. Winds increase Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind gusts around 25 to 35 knots are likely throughout the day. Moderate to heavy rain showers are expected Sunday afternoon through the evening, leading to low ceilings and visibilities. Winds shift to northwest behind the frontal passage. Gusty northwest winds diminish throughout the day on Monday, gusting around 15 knots in the afternoon. VFR conditions return as high pressure briefly builds overhead. Gusty post-frontal northwest winds Monday, which diminish by Monday evening as high pressure returns from the south. VFR conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday despite a dry cold front passing through the region. This front will lead to another round of gusty winds for the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Southerly winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria today. As a cold front approaches, winds begin increasing tonight with Small Craft Advisories likely tomorrow. On Sunday, winds gust 20 to 30 knots across the waters. In the wake of the frontal passage, winds shift to west Sunday night and northwest by Monday morning. SCA conditions will likely continue throughout most of Monday in post-frontal west to northwest flow. Winds decrease back below sub- SCA levels Monday evening into Tuesday as high pressure returns from the south. Additional SCA conditions are possible by the middle of next week as another front passes through. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Southerly flow will lead to rising tidal anomalies with Annapolis forecast to hit Minor Flood Stage early this morning. Tidal anomalies will continue to rise this weekend and into early next week with Minor tidal flooding expected across sensitive areas. Annapolis is forecast to reach Moderate flood Sunday afternoon. Will continue to monitor. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ014. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...EST AVIATION...AVS/EST MARINE...AVS/EST TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AVS