484
FXUS61 KLWX 250212
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
912 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore overnight. Low pressure will
track into the Great Lakes tomorrow into the day Wednesday,
causing a strong cold front to move through the area Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure will build back in for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will move offshore overnight. Winds will become
light and out of the south to southeast. A shortwave trough
will track eastward from the Plains toward the Mississippi
Valley. The vast majority of the region is expected to remain
dry overnight, but a stray shower or two could reach the
Alleghenies just prior to daybreak. Overnight low temperatures
are forecast to be in the upper 30s and lower 40s for most.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to lift
northeastward through the Ohio Valley over the course of the
day tomorrow. As large scale ascent increases ahead of this
feature showers will gradually overspread the area from west to
east. Showers may be possible to the west of the Blue Ridge at
any point during the day tomorrow, but the bulk of the activity
should hold off until the afternoon and evening hours to the
east of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast
to be in the 50s and lower 60s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
Showers will continue on and off through the night tomorrow
night. Some embedded rumbles of thunder may also be possible as
some weak elevated instability starts to build in aloft. Overall,
rainfall totals are expected to be on the lighter side, with
most locations receiving around a tenth to a quarter of an inch
of rain. These rainfall totals should be beneficial, given
ongoing drought conditions across much of the area. Temperatures
will either hold steady in the 50s or rise slightly overnight.

A mid-level dry slot will move in aloft for Wednesday morning,
causing most of the shower activity to wind down. Most of the
day Wednesday should remain dry, although a brief passing shower
or two will remain possible. Temperatures will climb to near
record values for late November, with many locations making it
into the lower 70s. The warmth will be short lived however, with
a strong cold front moving through late Wednesday afternoon.
Strong cold advection will ensue in the wake of the front
Wednesday night, with temperatures dropping into the 20s
(Alleghenies) and 30s (further east). It will also be windy
behind the front, with gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria
possible in the mountains. Further east, less intense gusts of
20-35 mph may be possible through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions continue Thursday through Saturday as surface high
pressure builds over the mid-atlantic. A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to our southwest and low pressure to the north
will yield gusty winds on Thursday with winds gusting 15 to 20 knots
(30 to 40 knots mtns) in the afternoon. As high pressure continues to
settle overhead, winds diminish Friday with light winds expected
beginning Friday night and into Saturday. High temperatures will be
in the 30s and low 40s each day with highest elevations staying in
the 20s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s
across the forecast area.

On Sunday, precipitation chances increase across the area as high
pressure shift offshore and return flow ushers in increased
moisture. A slight chance to chance of precipitation is expected
Sunday afternoon with below freezing temperatures in the mountains
leading to possible light snow showers. Little to now accumulation
is expected as snow transitions to rain as temperatures warm above
freezing in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 40s for
most with overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with light winds overnight. Ceilings will slowly
lower through the day tomorrow, with showers moving in from
west to east. Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR by late
tomorrow afternoon, and should stay low- end MVFR/high-end IFR
through much of the night Tuesday night and into Wednesday
morning. A strong cold front will move through Wednesday
afternoon, leading to a return to VFR conditions and gusty west
to northwest winds.

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals Thursday and Friday
as surface high pressure builds over the area. West/northwest winds
blowing around 10 knots on Thursday will gust 15 to 25 knots in the
afternoon and through the overnight. Northwest winds gust up to 30
knots across the terminals Friday morning before diminishing through
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds out of the south as high pressure moves offshore.
Southerly winds will remain light through tomorrow morning,
before picking up during the afternoon hours. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect for the Bay and Lower Tidal Potomac
late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. SCA conditions
will likely continue through much of the day Wednesday within
southerly flow. A strong cold front will move through the area
late Wednesday afternoon, causing wind to shift to out of the
west to northwest. High-end SCA gusts are expected behind the
front Wednesday night, with a few low-end Gale gusts not
entirely out of the question.

Northwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots over the Chesapeake Bay Thursday
and Friday with Small Craft Advisories likely. Winds gust 15 to 20
knots over the tidal Potomac with advisories possible. Winds
diminish below advisory criteria across all waters Friday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KLW/KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/KLW/KJP
MARINE...AVS/KLW/KJP