041
FXUS61 KLWX 141952
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
252 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will lead to decreasing winds through
tonight. A warm front will bring increasing clouds, warmer
temperatures and a few spotty showers to the area Saturday. A
strong cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday
leading to another round of gusty winds. A secondary front will
follow Sunday night before high pressure briefly returns Monday.
Low pressure will approach from the west Tuesday into the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As expected, clouds have overspread much of the region this
afternoon as a push of mid/upper level moisture moves towards
the region. This has kept temperatures down into the 50s for
most today along/north of I-66, with very little increase
expected this afternoon. Further south and west, more sun has
bumped temps into the low 60s this afternoon. On the leading
edge of this moisture surge, starting to see some radar returns
in northeast MD. However, these will not reach the ground given
the amount of dry air still in the low/mid levels.

Dry air in the low levels should prevent most if not all precip
through tonight, though a couple of sprinkles can`t be ruled
out especially further north and west/over the Appalachians.

Temperatures will be rather seasonable through the period with
highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level low currently over northeastern British Columbia
will eject southeastward across the Canadian Prairies and the
Great Lakes this weekend, eventually merging with a cutoff low
over the Canadian Maritimes. An associated surface low will
develop over the upper Great Lakes Saturday before tracking
across the Saint Lawrence Valley into northern New England on
Sunday. A warm front is expected to lift across the Mid-Atlantic
late tonight through Saturday afternoon, followed by a strong
cold front late Saturday night into Sunday morning. High
pressure will then build toward the region from the Ohio Valley
Sunday night.

In terms of sensible weather, some shower activity is possible
with the warm front over the Appalachians and western Maryland
during the day on Saturday.

As the cold front approaches and moves through the region on
Saturday night, a line of showers and perhaps a few elevated
thunderstorms will approach the region from the north and west.
Portions of the Appalachians and north-central/western MD could
see some showers with this, but am growing increasingly
confident that we see very little further east. There is still a
marginal risk for severe weather Saturday that just clips
western MD for this line of showers, but would be surprised if
we get much more than a few gusts in the 30-40 mph range as it
dwindles approaching the Allegheny front. There is some
indication of brief pop- up showers in some pieces of guidance
east of the Blue Ridge to the I-95 corridor, so kept chance POPs
in there, but these likely won`t amount to much in terms of
QPF.

Strong winds behind the departing cold front and ahead of high
pressure building in from the Midwest will result in a gusty day
on Sunday. Despite the passage of the cold front the night
before, downsloping winds gusting 30 to 40 mph will likely boost
temperatures well into the 50s and 60s on Sunday east of the
mountains. The combination of the winds mentioned above and very
low RH values may yield Red Flag conditions across much of the
area, but no watches were considered for now given the timing
being just out of range. See the fire weather discussion below
for more details on that.

Lighter winds linger into Sunday night with lows dropping into
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Monday, vertically stacked low pressure will be located over the
Canadian Maritimes while strong high pressure builds southeastward
from central Canada. While not as strong, west-northwest winds will
continue to be gusty in the 20-35 mph range. Colder air will have
fully settled in, with below normal highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s forecast. The combination of gusty winds, low humidity, and dry
fuels may lead to continued fire weather concerns. Lows drop back to
the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday night as winds subside.

A deamplifying, fast moving shortwave trough will slide eastward
from the central Plains Tuesday. There is still some uncertainty in
regards to timing and precipitation coverage, although most models
show some light precipitation affecting the area at some point
between Tuesday and Tuesday night. If it were to start early enough,
some wintry precipitation would be possible in the mountains, but
for most it will just be a chilly rain. Clouds will likely hold
daytime temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The predominant piece of the Canadian high finally slides
southeastward Wednesday and Thursday ahead of ridging aloft. At the
same time, there could be a lingering frontal zone beneath an active
jet aloft and the next trough may eject out of the desert southwest.
There should be some dry time in here, but clouds could outweigh the
sun. The next chance of rain could arrive as early as Thursday or as
late as Saturday. Temperatures will gradually moderate, especially
if southerly flow takes over by the end of the week. However,
consensus suggests readings remaining near to below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through tonight. A few
wind gusts around 15 knots have been observed, but overall
winds are AOB 10 knots this afternoon.

There is an outside chance of low-end VFR or high-end MVFR CIGs
(stratocu) early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching warm
front. Some spotty LLWS can`t be ruled out as well during this
time. Winds shift to southerly tonight at very light speeds.

The warm front should lift away from the region by later
Saturday morning with a spotty shower possible. A few
showers/some low-topped convection could bring brief
restrictions as a cold front crosses Saturday night. Though
those chances remain around 30 percent, and seem to be trending
lower in the latest high-resoution model guidance. South winds
Saturday could gust 15-20 kts during the afternoon, before
shifting to west/northwest Saturday night.

Winds increase in the wake of the cold front Sunday with gusts
of 25-35 kts likely. Winds diminish a bit but Sunday night, but a
few occasional gusts of 15-20 kts remain possible.

VFR conditions with WNW winds gusting 20-30 kt on Monday. Winds
subside Monday night. A period of sub-VFR ceilings and rain is
possible Tuesday or Tuesday night as a quick moving disturbance
passes. VFR with light winds Wednesday as high pressure builds to
the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Deeper mixing and a marginal wind field have yielded a few sporadic
gusts near 18 knots this afternoon over the northern waters, but
SCAs are not being considered at this time.

A warm front will lift across the waters through Saturday, and
winds will shift to the south. Channeling likely pushes gust
into the 20-25 knot range by Saturday evening ahead of an
approaching cold front, then winds shift to the west/northwest
and gust up to 30 knots through Sunday. Brief/sporadic gale
conditions can`t be ruled out both with the immediate frontal
passage overnight Saturday night, then again during the day on
Sunday in the wake of the front. Somewhat lighter winds are
forecast Sunday night, though SCA conditions likely persist for
most of the waters. No headlines were issued at this time, but
will likely be needed in future forecast updates. Confidence in
Gale conditions not quite there to go with a watch at this time.

Small Craft Advisories will likely continue Monday in strong WNW
flow. Winds do look a bit lower than Sunday however. The winds
gradually diminish Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday should see
sub-SCA conditions. Some rain is possible Tuesday as a quick
disturbance passes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
For tonight, winds will turn out of the south as a warm front
lifts through the region into Saturday. This will yield much
higher overnight RH recoveries across the board.

A brief reprieve from the low humidities is expected Saturday
behind the warm front. This will be followed by a cold front
Saturday night, which could bring some light rain along with it.
However, the chances for a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or
more) seem pretty low at this time.

Gusty westerly winds are expected Sunday in the wake of this
cold front passage. Additionally, humidities will once again
drop significantly as drier air move in. Even drier conditions
are expected Monday, with a bit less in terms of wind. However,
both days will pose a threat for adverse fire weather
conditions, assuming the rain event Saturday night doesn`t
overperform.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...DHOF/CJL
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...CJL