275
FXUS61 KLWX 140005
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
705 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will lead to decreasing winds through
Friday night. A warm front will bring increasing clouds, warmer
temperatures and a few spotty showers to the area Saturday. A strong
cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday leading
to another round of gusty winds. A secondary front will follow
Sunday night before high pressure briefly returns Monday. Low
pressure approaches from the west Tuesday into the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Winds will continue to gradually decrease this evening as 1024 mb
surface high pressure builds over the central and southern
Appalachians. With high pressure building nearby expect mainly clear
skies with just some thin high cirrus clouds passing through. Low
temperatures will vary from the valleys to the ridges given the
elevated westerly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Expect ridge locations to
remain in the low to mid 30s with sheltered valleys in the mid 20s
to around 30 degrees. Relative humidity values (recoveries 50-85
percent) and dewpoints (low to mid 20s)remain low given the drier
airmass overhead which should allow sheltered locations to decouple
under clear skies. I-95 metro areas and locations directly along the
western shore of the bay will remain in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will settle over the central/southern Appalachians
before drifting toward the southeast U.S coast Friday afternoon and
evening. With high pressure nearby expect lighter winds across the
region along with seasonable high temperatures in the upper 50s and
low 60s (upper 40s mountains). Skies will trend sunny to mostly
sunny with mid to high level clouds building in during the late
afternoon and evening as a warm front approaches the area. This warm
front will be associated with an area of low pressure that will
eject from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes Friday
night into Saturday. As the warm front lifts north and east, expect
cloud cover to thicken along with the risk for a few showers mainly
west of the Allegheny Mountains. This is due to a slight upslope
component against the mountains as winds turn from west to
southwest. Lows Friday night will fall into the upper 30s and low
40s. Portions of northern and central MD could see lows in the low
to mid 30s based upon the placement of the warm frontal boundary.

Upper ridging flattens as it moves toward the east coast
Saturday ahead of a trough in central Canada. A secondary low
will form along the frontal zone and translate across the Great
Lakes. The main question for the daytime hours is how quickly
the warm front progresses through the area and how thick cloud
cover is. These factors could result in a temperature gradient
between mid 50s across northeastern Maryland and close to 70 in
central Virginia. The morning should remain dry east of the
Allegheny Front (where some upslope showers may continue).
Things get a bit more interesting during the afternoon and
evening as vorticity advection and the left exit of an upper jet
streak approach and interact with the warm frontal zone. Winds
are generally westerly above the surface, and most models
indicate showers tending to dry up as they move east of the
mountains. The highest chance of rain will be across northern
areas and the Alleghenies, but even then, rainfall amounts may
be fairly light. Another aspect is that there may be enough
instability to combine with the shear to produce some enhanced
(but generally low topped) convection. SPC has highlighted areas
west of the Alleghenies in a Marginal Risk for severe weather,
with the thought that any convection will be weakening and
elevated in nature as it crosses our area during the evening.
The trailing cold front will approach during the second half of
the night, which may result in some additional showers moving in
from the northwest. It will be mild, as clouds and the warm
sector keep temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds will
start increasing across the higher elevations through the night,
and especially after the cold front crosses. Some gusts in
excess of 40 mph are possible on the exposed ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Sunday, the area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will be
shifting into the northeast CONUS, pushing the cold front through
the region likely by early in the day. This will usher in much drier
and cooler conditions. Current forecast is for temperatures in the
low to mid 60s, but given recent faster trends with the frontal
passage, could see that go down in the coming days. Either way,
should expect temperatures to come back down closer to average for
mid-November. Gusty northwest flow is expected behind the front as
well, with gusts to 25 to 35 mph Sunday afternoon (isolated higher
gusts in the mountains).

High pressure briefly returns in the wake of this area of low
pressure Sunday night into Monday. Gusty northwest winds continue,
albeit about 5 to 10 mph lighter than Sunday overall. Pending the
amount of rain that does manage to fall on Saturday night into
Sunday morning, some fire weather concerns could arise as well, see
the fire weather discussion below for details.

Another area of low pressure approaches the region Monday night into
Tuesday, but this time out of the Central Plains. There is seemingly
very little moisture connection with this system, and a lack in
substantial upper-level forcing. So, as a result, this will likely
be pretty low impact in terms of precipitation. However, it will
usher in even cooler temperatures, likely pushing the region below
average into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday. West to northwest winds
will continue to decrease this evening as high pressure builds over
the central/southern Appalachians. Winds will remain out of the west
at 5 to 10 kts Friday with occasional/rogue gusts up to 20 kts
mainly at terminals close to ridges. Skies will trend clear to
mostly sunny with thin mid and high level cirrus building in for the
afternoon and evening as a warm front approaches the area.

The warm front will gradually lift through the area Friday night and
to the north Saturday afternoon. Ceilings will remain in the high
end MVFR to low end VFR range as the front passes through. Highest
confidence for MVFR per the latest hi-res 18z CAMS remains at MRB,
BWI, MTN and perhaps IAD Saturday into Saturday night. The
aforementioned terminals also have the potential at seeing a few
showers and perhaps a t-storm given some instability along and
directly behind the warm frontal boundary. Chances are less than 20
percent so did not included in the TAF at this time.

A strong cold front will be sweeping through the region and offshore
Sunday morning, ushering in dry and cool air. This will also bring
some gusty NW winds along with it on Sunday, with gusts in the 25 to
30 knot range. VFR conditions are expected during this time, with
winds being the primary concern. Gusty NW winds will then continue
on Monday, but decrease to around 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure gradient continues to relax this evening allowing winds
to gradually fall back below Small Craft Advisory levels. Have left
SMall Craft Advisories in place for the middle and southern waters
of the bay and southern waters of the tidal Potomac through
midnight.
These may be able to be canceled early given how quickly the winds
have dropped despite the colder temperatures over the warmer waters.

Overall winds will be much lighter on Friday, remaining W/NW.
However some occasional gusts of 18-20kt are possible. At this time,
the situation would favor a Marine Weather Statement versus
additional advisories, but will continue to monitor.

A warm front lifts through the area Saturday, resulting in a
wind shift to the south. Winds will likely remain light through
the day, ramping up quickly during the evening when advisories
will likely be needed.

Gusty NW flow behind a strong cold front will likely yield wind
gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range, which would necessitate SCAs. Gale-
force gusts can`t completely be ruled out over the northern portions
of our waters either, but doesn`t look likely at this time. Winds
will taper down a bit on Monday, but should still be well in the SCA
range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Poor recoveries seem likely  tonight in the higher elevation
locations above 2000 feet or so due to the high pressure moving
directly overhead. This could especially be an issue for ongoing
fires in those higher elevation locations (i.e Pendleton Co. WV).
Expect maximum recoveries of 55-85 percent with slightly lower
values in the higher mountain locations and along western/southern
exposures.

Looking ahead to Friday, conditions are again dry, but with winds
decreasing as high pressure tracks in. While conditions may not
quite be met for a Fire Danger Statement for most areas, the ridges
could see wind gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range Friday afternoon.
While RH values may not be quite as low as today, thinking that the
combination of weather conditions and antecedent dry conditions on
the ground could lead to an active day for any ongoing fires,
especially along the Allegheny Front and in the Potomac Highlands.
Winds will pick up Saturday afternoon out of the SW, but RHs
should be rapidly increasing during this timeframe as well. This
is in response to a warm front lifting through the region. Some
rain is possible on Saturday night into Sunday morning as the
cold front pushes through. Rainfall amounts look to be a tenth
of an inch or less unfortunately, which will do little to
provide any long-term relief.

Further drying and additional gusty northwesterly winds (gusts of 25-
35 mph, 35 to 50 mph in the mountains)are expected on Sunday behind
a strong cold front. This continues into Monday, which is likely to
be the next really dry day post-front. Depending on the final totals
from Saturday, this could be the next day to look at for really
concerning fire weather potential. Dry conditions are expected to
continue for much of next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>532-
     538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...ADS/EST
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...CJL/EST
MARINE...ADS/CJL/EST
FIRE WEATHER...CJL/EST