911
FXUS61 KLWX 051849
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore this afternoon. A strong cold
front will move through during the middle of the week. High
pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon. Winds will be
light south to southwest with highs near 80 or lower 80s. Skies
will be clear tonight with calm winds. Patchy fog could develop
during the second half of the night. Much of the fog will be to
the east of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures overnight should
be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain offshore tomorrow. Early morning fog
will quickly burn off after sunrise Monday morning. Mostly
sunny skies and light winds Monday, with temperatures climbing
into upper 70s to mid 80s. Skies will stay mostly clear Monday
night, but southerly winds should prevent fog formation outside
of the more sheltered valleys. Lows Monday night will generally
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Lower pressure and falling heights on Tuesday with an approaching
trough and surface cold front will set the stage for some shower
activity late Tuesday through Tuesday night. Most of the
persistent and widespread shower threat will be holding off
until after dark into the night. Showers could move into the
Appalachians Tuesday afternoon. The surface cold front is
expected to reach and push through the region by daybreak
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain mild Tuesday night, with
lows in the 60s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday
morning to afternoon, then a reinforcing surge of dry air moves in
Wednesday evening. The highest rain chances look to be Wednesday
early morning through early afternoon, then any lingering showers
come to an end from northwest to southeast by late afternoon.
Rainfall amounts look to be on the low side at around half an inch,
though still beneficial given the ongoing drought. Closer to normal
highs Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A surge of cold
northerly winds usher in fall-like temperatures and dry conditions
Wednesday night through the end of next week.

Temps plummet Wednesday night to the 40s for most, with mid to upper
30s in the Alleghenies. Highs Thursday in the low to mid 60s, then
widespread mid 30s to low 40s Thursday night. Frost is going to be
possible in some sheltered valleys in the Alleghenies Wednesday
night. Then, we could be looking at more widespread frost to
possibly the first freeze Thursday night for areas west of the Blue
Ridge.

Highs Friday reach the mid to upper 60s, though winds turn out of
the east as a surface high over the Northeast quickly moves
offshore. Warmer conditions quickly return for next weekend as
southerly flow allows highs to reach the low 70s. Will need to
monitor the possible development of a coastal low along the Outer
Banks, that could bring some rain to the area next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions and light southerly winds becoming calm
overnight. Some patchy fog at terminals mainly east of the Blue
Ridge. MVFR conditions possible in fog. Fog should burn off
after sunrise Monday.

VFR conditions Monday. Increasing southerly winds will likely
limit fog formation Monday night. VFR conditions Tuesday, but
sub-VFR conditions may be possible Tuesday night as rain moves
in and a cold front approaches from the northwest.

A cold front is forecast to move across the Wednesday, bringing
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Any storm that moves over
a terminal could produce brief sub-VFR conditions. Winds turn
northwest quickly behind the front, with gusts around 15-20 knots
possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. After that, VFR
conditions prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds over the water through tonight should remain
below SCA conditions. Winds may briefly near low- end SCA levels
within channeled southerly flow Monday evening. A more
prolonged period of low- end SCA level winds within southerly
flow appears possible on Tuesday. A cold front will move over
the waters Tuesday night, causing winds to turn out of the
northwest late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

SCA conditions are likely to develop behind a cold front that moves
across the local waters Wednesday morning to early afternoon. Winds
increase quickly over the bay Wednesday afternoon, then across all
the waters Wednesday night. SCA conditions persist through Thursday
afternoon, then slowly diminish Thursday night.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR