875
FXUS64 KLZK 020554
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

-Rain chances return to portions of northern Arkansas Thursday
afternoon, including a few isolated storms.

-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through early next week,
with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Latest mesoanalysis indicated H500 ridging acrs the Cntrl US to the
Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Broad sfc high pressure was noted
fm the NErn US, extending SWwrd thru the Appalachians, w/ much of
the Srn Cntrl US along the SWrn periphery of this sfc high.

Another uneventful and warm day is expected for the Natural State on
Thurs, w/ some higher Chc PoPs noted over Nrn AR Thurs aftn in the
form of some isolated showers and a few storms.

Otherwise, the aforementioned upper and lower lvl features wl cont
to drive the local fcst as >90th percentile H500 heights and asctd
column high pressure remains stationary over the Ern half of the US
thru at least the end of the week.

Long term guidance, including deterministic and ensemble progs,
continue to suggest the aforementioned H500 ridge wl begin to
deamplify by early next week, w/ the primary closed high shifting
Swrd towards the Srn US and gulf coast, and mean zonal flow w/
passing embedded shortwave trofs prevailing acrs the CONUS. W/ this
pattern change, poleward moisture transport is progged acrs the Srn
Cntrl US, which wl aid in incrsg rain chances ahead of an aprchg
frnt.

Near the end of the PD thru the Tues-Wed timeframe, an upper
shortwave is progged to translate Ewrd acrs the Nrn Cntrl US/Canada
border region. At the sfc, this shortwave wl help to drive a strong
cdfrnt thru the Cntrl Great Plains, but some uncertainties remain on
timing and magnitude of upper level and sfc features. For now,
blended base guidance and ensemble solns suggest incrsg PoPs ahead
of and along the aprchg frnt Mon thru Wed, w/ potentially cooler and
more seasonable temps prevailing by mid-week next week if the frnt
reaches and clears the FA to the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR condns are expected to prevail thru the PD w/ light and
variable winds overnight. Based on persistence, some patchy FG may
develop acrs Nrn AR, mainly impacting KBPK thru sunrise Thurs
mrng, but due to lower confidence, withheld any FG mentions for
now. Otherwise, some VCTS may be seen acrs Nrn AR Thurs aftn, and
did include PROB30 TSRA mentions for KBPK. Otherwise, Erly winds
wl prevail acrs the FA thru Thurs aftn to evng w/ Sctd to Bkn
mid-lvl cloud cover only to note.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  61  88  58 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         89  61  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       85  61  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    89  62  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  89  63  86  60 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     91  63  88  60 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      89  62  87  58 /  20  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  88  61  87  59 /  10  10   0   0
Newport AR        90  63  88  59 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  62  87  59 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   90  63  88  59 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         90  61  88  57 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72