041
FXUS64 KLZK 211154
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
554 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Areas of dense fog are expected across central into northeast
  Arkansas this morning along and north of a weak warm front

- Scattered showers and isolated storms are expected through this
  evening

- Additional round of unsettled weather expected Sunday evening
  through Tuesday morning; heavy rainfall is possible

- Below average temperatures are expected to return across
  Arkansas by Wednesday and Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted widespread stratiform rain
ongoing across Cntrl and Nrn sections of the state early this
Friday morning. Over Srn AR, the atmosphere has been more
favorable for organized convection and the radar has shown just
that with a mixed mode of scattered thunderstorms intermixed with
stratiform rain. Overnight, a couple of storms over Srn sections
of the state could become strong to severe.

Today, the aforementioned complex of showers and thunderstorms
will advance E across the state beneath a passing short wave
trough. Activity should wind down by midday, however new
precipitation could develop just ahead of a weak boundary that
will sweep across the state this evening.

A brief lull in activity is expected through Sunday evening as the
short wave trough moves into the Cntrl Plains before getting caught
up in the mean flow. Compact amplified ridging will precede the
larger parent trough which will bring nice weather conditions to
AR for a short time. Unsettled conditions are anticipated by
Sunday night as large scale forcing for ascent once again
overspreads the region. A strong cold front is expected to sweep
across the state in association with the passing parent trough.
QPF totals could amount to several inches over portions of the
state, however speed of system and location of upscale growth will
ultimately impact how much rainfall is observed, and where,
through Tuesday.

Temperatures through Tuesday will largely remain above
climatology for both highs and lows. Near to below average
temperatures and drier weather are anticipated by Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure settles into the region in the wake of a
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mix of LIFR/MVFR conds are expected to prevail through the
morning due to low stratus and FG. Scattered SHRA were ongoing
over Cntrl/Srn sites and this activity will linger through midday.
Conds should slowly improve as VIS increases and CIGs lift.
Mentioned PROB30s over Nrn AR this afternoon associated with a
weak front. Light and variable winds this AM should be W/SW this
afternoon at around 10 kts. Winds should shift to the NW late in
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  53  65  44 /  50  10  10   0
Camden AR         76  53  71  47 /  30  10   0   0
Harrison AR       72  49  60  44 /  30  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  52  68  47 /  30  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  74  56  68  47 /  30  10   0   0
Monticello AR     79  59  73  50 /  30  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      75  50  68  47 /  30  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  50  62  42 /  40  10  10   0
Newport AR        74  56  64  45 /  50  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     76  55  70  47 /  30  10   0   0
Russellville AR   76  51  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
Searcy AR         75  53  66  44 /  40  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  57  68  47 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ006>008-
014>017-024-025-032>034-044>047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70