966
FXUS64 KLZK 271711 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1111 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 + Much cooler air continues to sweep into the state through the
   weekend but no precipitation expected through Friday.

 + Precip is expected Friday night through very early Sunday morning.
   Temperatures will be just warm enough for liquid precipitation
   although a few snowflakes can not be ruled out as the storm pulls
   out.

 + Much colder air follows the weekend system with additional precip
   including the possibility of a brief wintry mix. Model solutions
   continue to differ on the evolution of this storm system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The latest surface observations/satellite information show a weak
upper wave moving through the prevailing northwest flow aloft.
Moisture is of the high level type with no precipitation expected
and clearing skies anticipated later this morning once the wave
clears and surface high pressure builds in. After starting the day
generally in the 30s, temperatures this Thanksgiving day will top
out in the 50s across the forecast area. Dry conditions are also
expected for Friday but temperatures will be a touch cooler versus
what will be seen on Thursday as clouds begin to increase in advance
of the next storm system.

Next upper trough will be dropping into the western high plains
Friday night and will be moving to the east of the region by late
Saturday night or Sunday morning. System may be touch faster than
previous guidance with a few showers possible as early Friday
evening over the west. Temperatures look to be more than warm
enough to support liquid precipitation with a warm nose just off
the surface. Widely scattered thunderstorms are also possible over
mainly the southern half of the state but severe weather is not
anticipated.

The surface reflection, located in E/SE Colorado Friday night, will
race off to the E/NE and be over western Illinois late Saturday and
the eastern Great lakes by Sunday morning. The system will drag a
cold front through the state with precipitation ending from NW to SE
by Sunday morning. The colder air will arrive once the deepest
moisture exits the region but a few wet snowflakes on the backside
of the system can not be totally discounted.

After a quiet, albeit cool, Sunday with high temps only climbing
into the mid 30s to mid 40s, the forecast becomes more complicated
to say the least. Progressive pattern remains in place with an upper
trough digging its way through the four corners region by Monday
morning. Quazi-zonal flow that was in place during the weekend turns
to the SW in response while surface flow maintains some type of NE
to NW component as surface high pressure passes to our north. Energy
ejecting out of the aforementioned trough and an advancing slug of
moisture coming in from the southwest that will overtop colder
air on the surface, could result in a some winter weather.
Guidance of course is not very helpful at this time frame with a
myriad of solutions being offered including but not limited to
timing, available moisture and where the freezing line does
eventually set up.

It would appear the best time frame to see some winter weather would
be in the Monday evening to very early Tuesday time frame but the
deepest moisture could be exiting before the coldest air arrives and
could confine any winter precip just to the north. POPS are not very
high regardless and the highest QPF is over the south. Numerous
outcomes are possible with one large variable being the available
moisture as a large precipitation shield to our south which often
steals our best moisture time and time again. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Widespread VFR conditions expected across the state through the
period. NW winds near 10 kts with higher gusts at some terminals this
afternoon will become much lighter overnight and through the rest
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  30  50  36 /   0   0   0  40
Camden AR         56  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  40
Harrison AR       50  29  50  36 /   0   0   0  80
Hot Springs AR    55  32  53  39 /   0   0   0  60
Little Rock   AR  54  34  51  39 /   0   0   0  40
Monticello AR     55  34  53  39 /   0   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      57  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  80
Mountain Home AR  50  28  49  36 /   0   0   0  70
Newport AR        52  31  49  36 /   0   0   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     54  32  52  38 /   0   0   0  30
Russellville AR   56  32  54  39 /   0   0   0  70
Searcy AR         54  30  51  36 /   0   0   0  30
Stuttgart AR      53  32  50  39 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...67