512
FXUS64 KLZK 151727
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under
high pressure. There is a small chance for some pop-up showers and
thunderstorms across northern locations Saturday afternoon,
therefore PoPs have be drawn in to about 20 percent. Severe weather
is not expected at this time. Winds are expected to remain mostly
light and variable through much of the period.

Temperatures are expected to be HOT during the period with highs in
the 90s...some southern locations could reach 100 degrees Saturday
and Sunday afternoons. Humidity will make heat index feel
slightly warmer with values in the mid 90s to near 103. Overnight
low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

An upper ridge will be situated over the SERN CONUS at the start of
the long term period...with SW flow aloft over the SRN Rockies into
the NRN Plains. AR will be between these two features...allowing a
weak upper wave to lift north from the Gulf along the WRN periphery
of the upper ridge to the east. Chances for convection will increase
on Mon as this upper disturbance lifts over AR...with best POPs
expected during the peak heating of the afternoon hrs on Mon.
Chances for convection will again be seen on Tue...but coverage will
be lesser and more of the regular diurnally driven convective summer-
time pulse nature.

By later in the week...the upper ridge to the east of AR will
gradually elongate and lift back to the NW...with AR under more
influence of this upper ridging. Chances for afternoon convection
look to decrease as a result...and temps warming from the cooler
conditions earlier in the period where clouds and precip were more
expansive. Even with this upper ridge expanding...there will be at
least some small potential for afternoon convection each day into
the end of the forecast for some portion of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the period thanks to
high pressure aloft and at the surface. Winds will be light, Srly
at times, with nearly calm winds overnight. Only daytime Cu is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  96  73  87 /   0  10   0  50
Camden AR         72  98  72  87 /   0   0   0  50
Harrison AR       69  92  70  87 /   0  10   0  30
Hot Springs AR    72  97  72  88 /   0  10   0  50
Little Rock   AR  75  98  75  88 /   0  10   0  50
Monticello AR     75  98  74  86 /   0  10  10  70
Mount Ida AR      71  95  71  87 /   0  10   0  40
Mountain Home AR  71  93  72  87 /  10  10   0  30
Newport AR        75  98  76  90 /   0  10   0  50
Pine Bluff AR     75  98  74  86 /   0  10   0  60
Russellville AR   73  96  74  89 /   0  10   0  40
Searcy AR         72  97  74  88 /   0  10   0  50
Stuttgart AR      76  96  75  87 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...70