527
FXUS64 KLZK 151948
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No significant changes are forthcoming with this forecast update.
Synoptically, an expansive ridge centered over the MS River and a
nearby surface high will promote large scale subsidence across the
region. Despite widespread subsidence, a few widely scattered
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms could develop over Nrn
AR during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Due to the
proximity of high pressure, winds will be light and variable.

Temperature are expected to be hot today into Sunday, with readings
well into the 90s under mostly sunny skies. Daytime fair weather
Cumulus should develop each afternoon with the commencement of
vertical mixing. The combination of higher humidity in conjunction
with hot temperatures will make heat index values range from 100 to
near 105 degrees both afternoons. These values should fall just
short of heat advisory criteria but it will be uncomfortable
nonetheless. Low temperatures each day should be in the lower to mid
70s.

Rain chances will ramp up on Monday with the arrival of upper level
energy from the Gulf of Mexico. PoPs will be highest in the
afternoon with the aid of daytime heating. Best coverage of rainfall
should be over the SE and E half of AR. Rainfall amounts should be
light, with generally 0.25 of an inch or less expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Not many value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon and
only minimal changes have been made to the grids. Guidance continues
to show some precipitation chances early in the period before the
dry and hot conditions return. A general blend of forecast solutions
was used.

The period initiates with a sprawling upper level ridge along the
eastern seaboard and upper troughing over the west. Area will be in
between these two systems with a continual stream of tropical
moisture coming in from the gulf. An upper level impulse will be
moving overhead and a much stronger impulse will be moving into the
Texas gulf coast supporting low end precipitation chances through
Wednesday.

Majority of the precipitation in the period will likely be diurnally
driven with POPS decreasing as moisture plume heads off to the west.
Aforementioned ridge will retrograde slightly before becoming more
elongated and once again will be the dominate weather feature. POPs
will be minimal but a pop up shower or thunderstorm can never be
ruled out in this environment.

Temperatures early in the period will generally be in the 80s due to
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Once the ridge returns and
cloud cover decreases, temperatures are expected to warm back into
the 90s. Lows in the 70s will prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the period thanks to
high pressure aloft and at the surface. Winds will be light, Srly
at times, with nearly calm winds overnight. Only daytime Cu is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  95  74  90 /   0   0   0  50
Camden AR         72  97  72  89 /   0   0   0  60
Harrison AR       70  92  71  89 /   0  10   0  30
Hot Springs AR    72  96  73  92 /   0   0   0  50
Little Rock   AR  75  97  76  92 /   0   0   0  50
Monticello AR     74  97  74  89 /   0   0  10  70
Mount Ida AR      71  94  72  90 /   0   0   0  40
Mountain Home AR  71  92  72  89 /  10  10   0  30
Newport AR        75  97  75  91 /   0   0   0  40
Pine Bluff AR     74  97  75  90 /   0   0   0  60
Russellville AR   73  95  75  92 /   0   0   0  40
Searcy AR         73  97  74  91 /   0   0   0  50
Stuttgart AR      75  96  76  89 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70