505
FXUS64 KLZK 042241
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
541 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early
next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.

-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late next
 week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US to Ern US w/
amplified troughing continuing to move acrs the Wrn US. Locally,
Ern US sfc pressure continues to influence the fcst, w/ dry and
warm temps persisting thru at least the end of the weekend.

Not much has changed regarding the fcst, w/ guidance still
indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge weakening and
shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US early next week, and
generally zonal flow w/ passing embedded shortwave trofs
prevailing acrs the CONUS.

Sfc moisture wl begin increasing over the Srn Cntrl US on Mon,
and wl aid in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week
ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt. This cdfrnt should move into the Ozark
Plateau region during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driven by broad
Great Lakes sfc high pressure, and influence more widespread PoPs
over the FA.

In the wake of the cdfrnt, which wl shift towards a "back-door"
style frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes and
NErn US, NErly sfc winds wl prevail, ushering in cooler and drier
air over the Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx
condns resuming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Expect VFR flight category for all terminals for the entire duration
of the forecast period from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.
Fair weather conditions are to be expected over the forecast period
for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  87  65  81 /   0  10  20  50
Camden AR         60  87  67  82 /   0  10  10  50
Harrison AR       58  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  30
Hot Springs AR    61  86  66  82 /   0  10  10  40
Little Rock   AR  62  86  69  80 /   0  10  20  50
Monticello AR     62  88  69  84 /   0  10  10  50
Mount Ida AR      60  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  40
Mountain Home AR  59  85  64  82 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR        59  88  68  82 /   0  10  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     60  87  68  83 /   0  10  10  50
Russellville AR   62  87  66  84 /   0   0  10  40
Searcy AR         59  88  66  81 /   0  10  20  50
Stuttgart AR      62  87  69  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74