504
FXUS64 KLZK 231748
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1148 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Unsettled weather returns early Monday through Tuesday morning;
  heavy rainfall is possible over west/southwest Arkansas

- Substantial cool down and dry weather is expected Wednesday
  through Friday

- Statewide rain chances possible by Saturday/Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus was currently in place across most of AR early this
Sunday morning. Temps ranged from the upper 40s to upper 50s. This
afternoon, winds will become E/SErly at around 10 mph with clouds
decreasing into the evening. Statewide high temps should be in
the 60s today.

Heading into Monday, a potent upper trough and closed low will eject
into the Cntrl/Nrn Plains from the Srn Rockies. Near surface
cyclogenesis should spur in lee of the Rockies over the Cntrl
Plains. Large scale forcing for ascent will begin to overspread the
Srn MS Valley within background SWrly flow. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop from forced ascent coupled
with passing upper level energy. Convection should initially fire
up over Wrn OK and Wrn TX on Sunday before spreading Ewrd into AR.

PoP chances will increase markedly over Wrn AR during the predawn
hours on Monday. This activity will translate Ewrd Monday night
into Tuesday morning. An open warm sector will attempt to lift
Nwrd into S and SE AR as a surface low over the Cntrl/Nrn Plains
continues to deepen. The main question will be how far N does the
unstable air mass advect before precip arrives from the W. For
now, if storms were to become strong to severe, portions of Srn
AR would be most favored. Given this, SPC Day 2 outlook already
highlighted Srn AR with a slight risk of severe storms on
Monday/Monday night. All modes of severe could be possible.

QPF deterministic forecasts are settling in on 1-3" rainfall with
highest totals over W and SW AR. Probabilistic ensemble guidance
depicts 40->90% of >1" through Tuesday, 30-70% of >2" for SW
2/3rds of the state, and a limited area of 20-40% of >3" over the
Ouachita Mtns into Wrn portions of the AR River Valley. The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights an area roughly defined by
the >2" rainfall footprint with a slight risk of flash flooding
Monday into Monday night.

A cold front will sweep across the state on Tuesday abruptly
ending precipitation from NW to SE. A secondary, more potent, cold
front will push across the state Wednesday morning. Winds on
Wednesday will be breezy out of the N/NW thanks to tight PGF in
place. Strong area of high pressure will settle into the region on
Thursday beneath NW flow aloft. Temps will transition from near
record warmth of late, to below average Wednesday through Friday.
No rainfall is expected during this period of time while high
pressure is in control. Low temps could be at or below freezing
across a good portion of the state Thursday morning and Nrn AR
Friday morning. High temps Wednesday through Friday should range
from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Late in the period, upper level flow should transition to zonal on
Friday, then SWrly flow takes shape on Saturday. Potential upper
level energy traversing background SW flow in association with a
cold front should trigger showers and perhaps thunderstorms across
the Srn Plains/Srn MS Valley. Inherently a lot of uncertainty
remains with the latter portion of the period so its always best
to follow the forecast as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR CIGs will hang on through 21z at KPBF and KLLQ before
gradually improving to VFR. Light E/SE winds will become light and
variable overnight across the state. A cold front will approach
the state late tonight into early Monday morning with mid and
high level cloudiness gradually overspreading the state. Elected
to introduce PROB30 groups at KHRO and KBPK as CAMs and short term
guidance shows shower and thunderstorm activity along with
MVFR/IFR CIGS ahead of the front late Monday morning into the
early afternoon hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist
through period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     45  59  51  69 /  10  90  80  10
Camden AR         48  66  56  70 /  30  90 100  10
Harrison AR       46  58  50  63 /  40  90  50  10
Hot Springs AR    48  61  53  68 /  50  90  80  10
Little Rock   AR  49  61  54  68 /  20  90  90  10
Monticello AR     50  71  61  74 /  10  70 100  30
Mount Ida AR      49  62  52  69 /  70 100  70   0
Mountain Home AR  45  57  50  65 /  30  90  60  10
Newport AR        47  60  55  68 /   0  90  90  20
Pine Bluff AR     47  66  57  70 /  10  80 100  20
Russellville AR   49  60  53  67 /  40 100  70  10
Searcy AR         46  60  52  68 /  10  90  90  10
Stuttgart AR      49  65  57  69 /  10  80 100  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...Kelly