114
FXUS64 KLZK 011135
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

-Scattered showers are anticipated over the northern half of
 Arkansas on Saturday associated with the passage of a cold front.

-Frost and freeze conditions are likely Sunday morning over
 roughly the northwest half of the state.

-Frost is possible over remaining southeast half of Arkansas on
 Monday morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected through mid-to-late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Sky conditions ranged from overcast to mostly cloudy on this
first morning of November. Temperatures were in the mid 40s to
mid 50s and winds were nearly calm. Skies will remain cloudy
through much of today as a cold front approaches and sweeps across
the state from the Cntrl Plains.

Synoptically, an upper level closed low will drop SEwrd into the
Mid/Upper MS Valley today. Scattered showers are anticipated to
develop behind the cold front in close proximity to the H850
front. Precipitation chances should be highest over roughly the
N/NE half of the state and precip mode should be stratiform in
nature. QPF amounts should generally range from a couple
hundredths of an inch up to a couple tenths of an inch. In the
wake of the cold front, upper level flow will become NWrly once
again. Early next week an upper level ridge will slide Ewrd out of
the Four Corners region into the Srn Plains. Afterwards, the
ridge will become stationary over the Gulf. Upper level flow will
be zonal favoring a moderating trend in temperatures and absence
of mentionable PoPs, at least until Friday when low end rain
chances return to the region.

On the heels of Saturdays cold front skies will clear from NW to SE.
High pressure will settle into the region through Monday.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will accompany the surface high.
Currently, a freeze watch is in place across W, NW, and Nrn AR for
Sunday morning where temperatures are likely to fall to or well
below the freezing mark (upper 20s). Nearby, but just outside of
these areas will be monitored for frost potential, but winds will
need to be monitored. Too high of winds could preclude frost
formation.

Additional frost conditions will be possible on Monday morning. The
setup should have the surface high positioned to the SE of AR with
winds going nearly calm under clear skies. Areas further S and E
would be susceptible to frost. Temperatures will begin to warm as
surface high pressure slides E of the state and winds become
SWrly through mid-to-late week. As already mentioned, PoP chances
could return by Friday associated with a progressive upper level
feature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conds are expected through much of the TAF period. High clouds
should become mid clouds as a cold front approaches from the NW.
SHRA/VCSH is possible over Cntrl/Nrn sites on Sat with the passage
of the cold front. Temporary VFR/MVFR CIGs will be possible with
precip. Winds will switch to the NW in the wake of the boundary
with clouds clearing late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     59  33  57  35 /  60  10   0   0
Camden AR         65  37  60  34 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       54  32  55  37 /  40   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    64  35  60  36 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  62  38  57  38 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     65  38  60  37 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  31  61  35 /  20   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  56  31  56  35 /  50   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  36  57  35 /  60  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  37  58  35 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   61  35  61  37 /  30   0   0   0
Searcy AR         61  34  58  34 /  40  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      64  38  57  37 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
ARZ004>007-014>016-024-039-042-103-112-113-123-130-137-138-140-
141-203-212-213-223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70