303
FXUS64 KLZK 261825
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Strong cold front brings temps down to near average today
  through the weekend with dry weather persisting through Fri

- Upper level storm system expected to bring precip Sat/Sun morning

- Additional precip possible Mon/Tues with limited wintry mix
  possible depending on timing; temps below average beyond Sun

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

All was quite across AR early this Weds morning. A potent cold front
was sweeping across the state with only notable features being
scattered high clouds (Nrn AR) and winds becoming NWrly at 10-20
kts in wake of the boundary. Highs today will top out in the upper
40s to upper 50s. Cloud cover should increase across Nrn AR this
evening into the overnight period with the passage of weak upper
level energy. No precip is expected this evening or overnight.

Thanksgiving Day, sfc high pressure will settle into the region.
Winds will be Nrly at less than 10 kts. Skies will be clear after
morning lows starting out near 30 to upper 30s. Highs should
rebound into the lower to middle 50s. Similar conds are expected
on Fri however highs may be a couple degrees cooler and clouds
will increase from SW to NE during the day.

An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the region
within quasi-zonal flow Sat into Sat night. This feature will bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms back to the state Sat through
Sun morning. Cold air will linger Sat morning despite low-level
warm air advection well underway. Current thinking is precip will
start off as all liquid even if sfc temps in the Ozarks are near
freezing due to a progressive warm nose in the H925-H700 layer.
Sfc temps will gradually warm through the day as warm/moist air
lifts Nwrd into a sfc low situated invof Nrn MO/Srn IA. Showers
should diminish from the NW on Sun morning right as another shot
of colder air moves back into AR in the wake of a cold front.

The forecast gets more convoluted Mon and Tues. An upper level
trough is expected to dig over the Four Corners region Sun night/Mon
morning which will shift zonal flow over the Cntrl CONUS to SWrly
flow. Upper level energy is expected to eject from the trough
axis on Mon/Mon night overtop a cold airmass in place. Substantial
difference do arise in regards to precip start time, duration,
precip end time, and even sfc temps which could prove to be
crucial. One model feature I noted with some consistency is a
robust complex of showers and storms developing along the
TX/LA/MS coast. In past situations, a strong complex of showers
and storms to our S generally robs moisture further N which would
include AR and surrounding states. Models tend to not pick up on
this scenario very well. Thats an immediate concern I see in the
data right away. Secondly, subfreezing corridor appears to dip
into Nrn portions of AR but uncertainty exists to how far S this
freezing line progresses. Third, NBM temps appear to have quite
the diurnal range despite an abundance of clouds and scattered
precip. Without sufficient sources of cold air advection/warm air
advection, temperature range should be somewhat limited. And thats
what I would expect, a limited diurnal range in temps.

Question remaining is does precip develop far enough N to overlap
subfreezing sfc temps. Above the surface, winds will either promote
return flow (warming) or remain unimpeded (neutral/cold). A warming
scenario or neutral scenario would likely yield different P-types,
at least in the AM when sfc temps are at their coolest. Afternoon
temps should climb into mid 30s at minimum so no issues there.
Thinking there could be brief period of mixed precip Mon night/Tues
morning assuming precip is collocated with subfreezing air. The
operational ECMWF is a bit slower with much more moisture N into the
state (I believe this is more unlikely due to explanation above) and
the operational GFS is bit quicker, less precip, but colder sfc
temps. Both long term operational models have precip exiting by
midday Tues. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble data does little to clear up
some of these uncertainties. Even if mixed precip comes to fruition,
amounts should be on the lighter side given warm ground temps
followed by above freezing daily temps. Stay tuned over the next
several days as details hopefully get ironed out approaching
early next week. Without question temps Sun through Tues will be
well below climatological averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will
continue to be out of the NW through the early afternoon hours and
could be gusty at times. Winds are expected to become more light
and variable by tonight into early tomorrow. No precip is expected
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     35  53  29  50 /  10  10   0   0
Camden AR         34  55  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       32  50  29  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    36  55  32  53 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  38  54  34  51 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     37  55  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      35  57  32  54 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  33  51  27  49 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        39  52  31  48 /  10  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     36  54  32  52 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   37  57  32  54 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         35  54  30  51 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      38  53  33  51 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73