948
FXUS64 KLZK 290530
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1130 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 + Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible Saturday
   through very early Sunday, Winter weather is not expected at
   this time.

+  Colder air returns for early next week as another system
   moves through the region. Some light winter weather can not
   be discounted Monday but overall impacts appear minimal at
   this time.

+ Guidance continue to be inconsistent with the overall possibility
  and placement of winter weather.

+ Temperatures through the entire period will continue to run
  below average even for late November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Not many value added changes will be made to the forecast package
this morning as no significant changes are noted versus this time
last night. Overall progressive pattern will continue with a couple
of storm systems to deal with including the possibility of at the
very least, a taste of some winter weather.

Satellite imagery this morning shows partly cloudy to mainly clear
conditions across the region courtesy of weak surface ridging.
Temperatures are on the chilly side with the majority of observation
platforms in the lower to mid 30s. Increasing clouds cover is
expected later today as the next upper trough drops into western
high plains this evening. Surface reflection, over SE colorado this
evening, will lift to the NE and into the Eastern Great Lakes
come Sunday morning.

Warm nose still evident and with quasi-zonal flow in place, only
liquid precipitation is expected from this feature. It appears that
today will be dry with showers and isolated thunderstorms moving
through tonight into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will be a
touch cooler versus the past few days but nothing unusual for
late November. QPF not overly impressive with upwards on a inch
possible from this system and although isolated thunderstorms are
expected, severe weather is not.

As the surface cyclone lifts to the NE, it will drag a cold front
through the state with another surge of cold air following its
passage. The cold air looks to arrive once the best moisture exits
the region but high temperatures on Sunday are not expected to get
out of the mid 30s across the north to the mid 40s over the south.

Surface high pressure to the north of the state will provide a dry
Sunday but also keep a north to northeast surface flow in place as
it slides to the east. Meanwhile, a much sharper trough will be
digging into the central Rockies turning the upper flow around to
the SW. A fairly weak area of low pressure along the gulf coast
will throw moisture into the cold air mass over the state with the
possibility of some winter weather Monday with temperatures
holding in the 30s.

Models remain widely inconsistent concerning the timing, intensity
and placement of any potential weather. Current thinking is more in
line with the ECMWF solution that would result in some snow across
the north. GFS seems a little overdone with its ZR and has been
adjusted accordingly. Regardless, POPS are only in the chance
category and QPF is not overly impressive with less than a tenth
of an inch where the coldest air will reside with up to a quarter
of an inch of QPF over the south. In addition, no significant
period of cold air will proceed this system and soil temperatures
remain in the 40s which will help mitigate impacts.

Guidance continues to point to this cold snap being short lived with
temperatures rising back into the 40s Tuesday and beyond but these
readings remain below climatological averages. Minimal rain chances
return Thursday to close out the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Light precipitation continues to overspread the state this evening
with VFR conditions deteriorating with time to MVFR and
eventually IFR. Ceilings will remain low and visibility reduced
until late in the period when conditions will begin to slowly
improve. Wind shear is also expected to develop and persist for a
good part of the TAF cycle. Winds will be primarily from the SE
initially and a bit on the gusty side before shifting to the NW
following a cold frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     38  50  28  41 /  70 100  20   0
Camden AR         39  53  31  44 /  60  90  70   0
Harrison AR       38  50  23  36 /  90  90  10   0
Hot Springs AR    39  52  28  43 /  80  90  40   0
Little Rock   AR  41  51  30  43 /  60  90  40   0
Monticello AR     40  55  35  44 /  20  90  80  10
Mount Ida AR      39  53  27  44 /  90  90  30   0
Mountain Home AR  37  48  24  36 /  90 100  10   0
Newport AR        39  49  30  40 /  40 100  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     39  53  31  42 /  40  90  70   0
Russellville AR   40  52  28  44 /  90 100  20   0
Searcy AR         37  50  28  41 /  50  90  30   0
Stuttgart AR      41  51  31  41 /  30  90  60   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56