Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
637 FXUS64 KLZK 070457 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 -Scattered to widespread rain chances will return to the forecast today, particularly across the eastern half of the state. -Some locally greater rainfall totals of two to three inches (or more) appear possible across eastern to northeastern Arkansas Monday night, and some local flash flooding issues could arise. -Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled weather prevailing thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS, w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc, inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. DTd/dt analyses and current sfc obs show sfc dewpoints have increased into the mid 60s acrs Srn AR, and incrsg moisture trends should continue into the day today as low level Srly to SErly flow and asctd WAA/isentropic ascent continues. As has been advertised, covg of precipitation, mainly scattered showers and some thunderstorms should begin to incrs acrs SErn to Ern AR later Mon mrng, and continue to expand acrs the Ern half of the state thru this aftn. As of the 06/00Z short-term guidance, QPF progs have increased acrs the Ern half of the state. Uncertainties still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs the Mid-South later Mon evng. Currently, base-blended guidance suggests a broad footprint of up to one inch of rainfall over much of Ern to NErn AR, with some locally higher totals. HREF/REFS 90th percentile guidance suggests a broader QPF footprint of at least two inches over the same region, w/ embedded maxes in excess of three inches possible, and this could certainly be attainable given the anomalous moisture expected to be in place. Given that much of Ern to NErn AR remains in low to moderate drought condns, the impact of any excessive rainfall may be somewhat mitigated due to a higher tolerance and necessity of rainfall, but some isolated flash flooding could still arise where and if training becomes the most problematic, and if rainfall amounts approach some of the 00Z deterministic QPF output, e.g., local rainfall amounts in excess of five to six inches. Rainfall chances should continue into Tues as a cdfrnt fm the Great Plains slowly moves into the state thru the day. Covg of PoPs should taper off fm NW to SE thru Tues evng as drier air and broad sfc high pressure settles over the Cntrl US. By Wed, the aforementioned sfc high pressure wl be shifting Ewrd towards the Great Lakes and NErn US, w/ the FA residing on the SWrn periphery of the sfc high. Under NErly sfc winds, settled wx condns wl prevail thru the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Expect lowered CIGS and VSBY to as low as LIFR flight category across all terminals from the state of the forecast period through late morning Tuesday and into as late as Tuesday afternoon across the eastern terminals of KPBF and KLLQ. A lowered cloud deck in tandem with location which saw some rainfall today will keep CIGS and VSBY between MVFR and LIFR flight category across all sites until Tuesday around mid-day for the majority of terminals. VCSH will also be present across sites, over this period of early Tuesday morning and into Tuesday evening for the sites of KPBF and KLLQ. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 76 66 82 59 / 80 60 20 10 Camden AR 79 66 84 64 / 70 20 20 10 Harrison AR 82 63 78 55 / 30 20 10 10 Hot Springs AR 78 67 84 64 / 60 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 77 69 82 64 / 80 60 20 10 Monticello AR 79 69 85 65 / 90 40 20 10 Mount Ida AR 87 66 86 62 / 40 20 10 10 Mountain Home AR 82 65 81 56 / 30 20 10 10 Newport AR 76 70 81 61 / 80 90 30 10 Pine Bluff AR 76 69 83 64 / 90 40 20 10 Russellville AR 86 68 85 63 / 50 30 10 10 Searcy AR 77 69 83 61 / 80 80 20 10 Stuttgart AR 75 70 82 64 / 90 70 20 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74