010
FXUS64 KLZK 021638
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1038 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

-Frost and freeze conditions are expected this morning over roughly
the northwestern half of the state.

-Frost is possible over the southeastern half of Arkansas on Monday
morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected early-week through late-
week.

-Low end rain chances are possible towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Skies were mostly clear early this Sunday morning and dry air
advection was well underway as high pressure settles into the
region. With dew point temperatures falling during the predawn
hours, radiational cooling will be efficient. Temperatures are
expected to bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s, where Frost
Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in place, to the mid 30s to
lower 40s over E and SE AR. E and SE AR should have slightly
elevated winds overnight which should help prevent frost in these
locations where temps do manage to reach the mid 30s.

Today, skies should be clear and temperatures are expected to climb
into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds should be out of the N
around 10 mph. Winds over Wrn AR may shift to the S late this
evening as the high moves slightly Ewrd.

Additional frost will be possible on Monday morning. The synoptic
pattern would place the surface high along the MS River and points Ewrd
into TN/MS with winds becoming calm under clear skies. Main areas
to focus on would include E and SE AR where frost has been absent
thus far.

Synoptically, an upper level closed low will track Ewrd across the
TN Valley today. NW flow will resume locally through Monday. At
the same time an upper level ridge will slide Ewrd out of the Srn
Rockies into the Srn Plains. By mid-week, the ridge will become
stationary to our S invof of the Gulf coast states. Upper level
flow will become zonal across much of the CONUS favoring a
moderating trend in temperatures and absence of mentionable PoPs.
Changes in the pattern could arrive as early as Friday as a
couple progressive shortwave systems dive SEwrd from the Nrn
Rockies towards the region.

Temperatures this week will begin to moderate as surface high
pressure slides further E and winds become SWrly. High
temperatures will creep back into the 70s with lows in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Expect all TAF sites to remain in VFR flight category for the entire
duration of the forecast period from mid-day on Sunday through mid-
day on Monday. A region of surface high pressure will keep surface
winds shifting throughout the period. Low level wind shear is
expected at the terminal of KHRO from early Monday morning through
late Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         60  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       56  37  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  57  37  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     59  36  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      61  35  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  56  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        57  36  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  35  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   60  37  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         57  34  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  37  66  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74