732
FXUS64 KLZK 160001
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
601 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

-Near record high temperatures today as highs reach the upper 70s
 to lower 80s across the state

-A cooling trend anticipated into early next week, but should
 remain above normal levels into the middle of next week

-Rain chances starting Monday, with significant accumulations
 expected for the middle and latter portions of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

High pressure continue to persist across the Southeast, resulting
in mostly quiet weather conditions over the weekend. Some breezy
afternoon southwesterly winds will be noticeable across the region
this afternoon, enhanced from the high pressure circulation over
the Gulf and a weak surface low pressure passing to the north.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 70s
to lower 80s, which will approach record levels for this date.
After today winds will relax and cooler temperatures will settle
into the region as the persistent ridging begins to weaken due to
remnants of a strong Pacific trough ejecting east of the Rockies
early next week.

Guidance is becoming more in phase with what to expect next week
as more active weather is set to impact the Natural State. The
initial shortwave Monday will assist in deepening surface low
pressure across the Plains, resulting in increasing rain chances
Monday into Tuesday. However, not overly impressive moisture
profiles will limit coverage and amounts, as even probabilities of
measurable precipitation from the NBM peaks from 20% across
southern Arkansas to 70% across northern Arkansas spanning Monday
into early Tuesday morning.

Ridging will again amplify Tuesday resulting in highs reaching
the upper 70s to low 80s temperatures, dependent on lingering
clouds. However, profiles will begin to moisten quickly going into
Wednesday as moisture quickly advects in ahead of the next
troughing feature from the amplified Pacific trough, marking the
onset of a prolonged wet period during the middle to latter
portions of next week.

Notable improvement in ensemble/deterministic alignment indicates
a shift in later timing of rainfall onset on Wednesday, but storm
total rain amounts remains generally unchanged through Friday,
where northwest Arkansas remains favored for the highest rain
amounts. Based on NBM percentiles, widespread 2-4" remains a
reasonable expectation, with higher amounts exceeding 6-8"
(highest potential in northwest Arkansas) should the 75th-90th
percentile NBM amounts come to fruition. Most areas will receive
beneficial rain for this period, but areas that receive the
highest amounts, especially in a short amount of time, could
result in a flash flood threat. In terms of severe weather
potential, very low probabilities at this point due to the lack of
details, but the best available instability would be out ahead of
the main cold front in the warm sector, which looks to be
generally set up across Arkansas on Wednesday.

Once the wet conditions subsides late next week, the mid-level
pattern seemingly will remain active, but decent spread is present
in terms of the progressiveness or amplification of the persistent
Pacific longwave troughing heading through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period.
This evening, winds will subside becoming variable around 5 kts
or less. A cold front will push across the state during the predawn
hrs on Sun over Nrn sites into mid-day/early Sun afternoon over
Srn sites. W/SW winds will switch to the N/NE at around 10 kts on
Sun due to the FROPA. Expecting some low-stratus to develop
overnight ahead of the boundary. CIGs should remain VFR but could
approach MVFR category at times. SKC are expected N of the
boundary on Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  70  42  65 /   0   0   0  30
Camden AR         58  75  55  75 /   0  10   0  20
Harrison AR       48  68  45  63 /   0   0   0  30
Hot Springs AR    58  73  52  71 /   0  10   0  30
Little Rock   AR  58  72  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
Monticello AR     61  76  53  75 /  10  10   0  20
Mount Ida AR      57  75  52  72 /   0  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  49  69  43  62 /   0   0   0  30
Newport AR        56  70  45  66 /   0   0   0  30
Pine Bluff AR     59  73  50  72 /  10  10   0  20
Russellville AR   55  74  50  68 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         55  71  44  67 /   0   0   0  30
Stuttgart AR      59  71  48  69 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70