421
FXUS64 KMAF 081049
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Low (10-20%) rain chances today, mainly along the Pecos River.

- Warm and dry weather late this week into the early weekend,
  before rain chances return to westernmost higher terrain early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge has developed a bit
farther west over the past 24 hours, putting West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft.  At the surface,
mesoanalysis shows the front has made it to the Pecos, or just
beyond, at 06Z.  This front is not particularly strong, certainly
not what was depicted 24 hours ago.  Latest CAMs and NBM now portend
highs this afternoon ~ 2-4 F above normal, which is still cooler
than highs of the past couple of weeks.  One upside of the front is
that it will serve as a focus for convection later today, mainly
along and south/west of the Pecos.  Unfortunately, however, this
looks isolated at best.

This activity should diminish rather quickly this evening after
sundown as things cool off.  Unfortunately, things won`t cool off
that much.  A 25 kt LLJ and plenty of residual cloud cover will keep
overnight lows ~ 10-12 F above where they should be this time of
year.

Thursday, surface winds veer back to return flow, and a temperature
recovery begins.  Highs Thursday afternoon should be a couple of
degrees warmer than today, due to the wind shift and increasing
thicknesses. Grids Thursday stay dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The end of the week continues to look hot and dry before a storm
system brings a few changes next week. Mid and upper ridging will
build and strengthen over the region Friday into the weekend. Strong
subsidence will squash any chance at convection and most clouds for
that matter. Temperatures remain well above normal with highs
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s (10+ degrees above average).

The ridge finally begins to break down Sunday as a large upper
through approaches the area from the west. Remnants of TC Priscilla
in the Pacific will be absorbed within southwesterly flow aloft,
spreading deep moisture across the SW U.S. Most of this will miss us
to the north, but western portions of the area could see some
rainfall as this system passes Monday. Unfortunately, this system
won`t stick around and will pass quickly onto the Plains as ridging
tries to build back in from the east by midweek. Through it all,
temperatures will remain well above normal with no significant cold
front in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A cold front has stalled across the region this morning with
mostly light northeast to east winds. Expect VFR to prevail with
a mid level cloud deck expected to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  63  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 81  63  83  60 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   87  67  88  65 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            84  64  86  62 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           73  58  74  58 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    81  60  83  58 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    78  56  78  53 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     85  63  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   84  64  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     84  64  86  63 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29