271
FXUS64 KMAF 191726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Another breezy night and morning as the low level jet continues to
push low level moisture across the area. Low clouds will move in
east of Midland/Odessa and Fort Stockton. These clouds will lift,
but deeper moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One
begins to move into the region as the system moves onshore later
today. Mid level clouds move into the region and rain chances begin
to increase, particularly across the higher elevations where terrain
will aid in shower development. A few storms will be possible, but a
lack of instability should keep storms sub-severe. With the
additional moisture and the thermal ridge pushing further west,
temperatures end up 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most
places reaching the low to mid 90s.

Shower chances remain through tonight and increase into Thursday as
the tropical system moves through South Texas and into Mexico.
Expect breezy, near advisory criteria winds over the higher
elevations of Brewster and Presidio tonight and into Thursday
morning. Highest rain chances move into the Big Bend and across to
the Marfa Plateau Thursday afternoon with a sharper cutoff to shower
coverage north of the I-10 corridor. Rain amounts have been
gradually trending lower overall, but highest amounts continue to be
expected over the Big Bend and Terrell County to the northwest
towards the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Highs areawide take a
tumble as clouds and rain keep temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thursday night, the remnants of potential tropical cyclone 1 will
move offshore into the Pacific south of Baja del Sur.  The track of
this system, as far south as it is, suggests NBM POPs are probably
overdone a bit, as QPF has been dropping over the past few runs.
Regardless, best chances of rain look to remain west of the Pecos
Thursday evening, diminishing through the day Friday.  `Wouldn`t be
surprised if POPs dropped off faster, considering the expected
location of the disturbance Thursday night, and the tendency of
models to unrealistically prolong these events.

Otherwise, Friday marks the start of a warming trend that will
continue through the duration of the extended forecast.  Friday
looks to be the coolest day in the extended, as the upper ridge is
forecast to be centered over western TN or so.  Assuming moist soils
and a lingering tropical airmass/convection, highs Friday should top
out ~ 5-7 F below normal.

Through the weekend and into next week, the upper ridge will build
southwest, w/long range models placing it over Arizona/New Mexico by
Tuesday afternoon.  As such, thicknesses will increase each day,
finally bringing highs at or above normal everywhere by Tuesday.
After Friday, rain chances will be confined to diurnally-driven
activity in the Davis Mountains and Sacramentos.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Most terminals have lifted to VFR ceilings this afternoon with the
exception of HOB which should remain MVFR for the next few hours.
Ceilings will fall once again to MVFR after midnight at all
terminals. Elevated easterly winds continue area-wide with
intermittent gusts. Rain showers begin to move into the area late
in this TAF period but timing remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  84  70  92 /  30  40  20   0
Carlsbad                 70  77  69  84 /  30  80  70  40
Dryden                   70  81  70  85 /  80  80  80  40
Fort Stockton            69  79  69  87 /  40  80  70  30
Guadalupe Pass           63  69  64  77 /  30  80  80  50
Hobbs                    65  77  66  87 /  30  60  50  20
Marfa                    61  73  61  82 /  40  90  80  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  81  69  89 /  30  50  40  10
Odessa                   70  80  70  89 /  30  60  40  10
Wink                     72  82  72  90 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91