


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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049 FXUS64 KMAF 170009 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low (10-20%) rain chances this evening from the Presidio Valley into the Trans Pecos region and far southeast New Mexico. - A cold front arrives late Saturday, bringing near normal temperatures to the area Sunday. - Brief warmup Monday before another cold front brings Fall-like temperatures into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough sitting over parts of the northwestern CONUS this afternoon (centered roughly over western portions of Wyoming). A surface low in the lee of the Rockies has helped facilitate gusty southerly/southeasterly winds across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, a disturbance rounding the base of the main trough will aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. The best chances (10-20%) will stretch roughly from the Presidio Valley through the Davis Mountains and into Lea County. By Friday, another shortwave trough will begin to approach the area. This shortwave will push a Pacific front though the region, which will usher in drier, downsloping westerly/southwesterly winds. The trough itself looks to move over the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Guidance indicates as this occurs, gusty winds will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains, though they are expected to remain well- below warning criteria. Additionally, enough moisture should exist in the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos early Saturday morning to allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop as the trough moves through (10-20%). However, what moisture we do have will quickly be pushed off to the east, and behind the trough will come much drier air. Otherwise, temperatures remain unseasonably warm, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 80s for most, with some 90s in the Lower Trans-Pecos and along the Rio Grande. Lows in the upper 50s and low 60s can likewise be expected for the majority of the area both Friday and Saturday mornings. That being said, more Fall-like temperatures are on the way soon! Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The upper-level trough moves off to the east by late Saturday morning/early afternoon. However, breezy conditions are expected to continue in the Guadalupe Mountains throughout the day with the passing of a cold front. Though, winds are forecast to be well below Advisory criteria. There may be a few remnant showers over our far northeastern counties Saturday morning, but should be out of the area by late morning as the trough exits to the east. Sunday morning temperatures will be the coolest many areas have seen in a while, with overnight lows in the 50s for most. Lows bottom out in the 40s across portions of the northwestern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and higher terrain. Afternoon highs Sunday also take a hit in the post-frontal airmass, with highs ranging in the mid 70s to low 80s for most. The cooler temperatures will be short-lived as higher heights associated with ridging briefly returns to the area Monday. As a result, afternoon highs are forecast to top out into the 90s for most, except for portions of southeast New Mexico and across higher terrain. Ensemble guidance continues to show another upper-level trough approaching our region Tuesday, bringing a cold front along with it. This indicates the potential for breezy conditions on Tuesday next week. At this time, high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to dip back into the 70s and 80s behind the front. Despite all of the aforementioned troughs and fronts, the extended remains dry due to a lack of deep moisture. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Isolated TSRA have developed east of the Davis Mountains into the Trans Pecos region early this evening. Any cell that develops will be capable of producing brief strong/erratic gusts, frequent lightning, and localized reductions in visibility due to heavy rain. Will monitor trends closely for impact near KPEQ and KFST through around 02Z or so. VFR otherwise prevails through the period. Southeasterly to southerly winds gradually taper this evening. Winds will shift more southwesterly to westerly late tonight and into the day Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 62 89 63 88 / 0 10 20 10 Carlsbad 58 85 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 63 90 65 94 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 63 89 63 88 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 57 74 54 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 85 55 82 / 20 0 10 0 Marfa 54 82 53 80 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 63 88 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 63 87 64 86 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 61 88 58 86 / 20 0 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...21