036
FXUS64 KMAF 221749
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1149 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- An approaching upper-level system brings increasing chances
  (20-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through
  Sunday evening. We will be monitoring for isolated strong to
  severe storms and locally heavy rainfall over the Permian
  Basin and Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper-level ridging largely remains in control of our weather today.
At the surface, an area of high pressure is currently centered over
the central Plains. This is pushing a weak cold front down through
the Panhandle which is expected to drop into our region later this
morning. Temperatures this afternoon warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Throughout the day, the surface high shifts east, allowing moisture
to return to the region. Meanwhile, an upper-level storm system
looks to track from the coast of Baja California into the central
Great Plains today through Monday morning. As this system progresses
toward our region, it will coincide with ample moisture to help ramp
up rain chances later this weekend. Tonight, rain chances shall
range between 10-20% areawide, with temperatures cooling into the
mid 40s to mid 50s. Rain chances increase Sunday ahead of a dryline,
ranging from 20-70%. Those west of the Pecos River will see rain
chances between 20-40%, while areas east of the Pecos will see PoPs
of 40-70% (highest over the northeastern Permian Basin). Given
moderate shear and steep lapse rates, a storm or two may be severe
Sunday afternoon over the eastern Permian Basin, down into the Lower
Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. The main threats with any severe
storms will be large hail and damaging winds. This will require
monitoring. Rain chances begin to taper off west to east Sunday
afternoon heading into the overnight hours.

Westerly/ southwesterly winds will also become breezy to moderately
strong within the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Sunday afternoon.
However, winds are expected to remain below High Wind criteria.
Otherwise, highs Sunday are forecast to top out in the low to mid
60s across the Permian Basin, much of southeast New Mexico, and the
higher terrain, with 70s for almost everyone else.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

By Sunday night, an upper low will moving out of the Four Corners
and moving into the Great Plains. Pooled moisture and broad ascent
will allow for rain chances to continue across the region with the
highest chances east of Midland/Odessa in the Permian Basin with
chances tapering off further to the west. Rain amounts continue to
be meager with up to an inch possible for the eastern most counties
and a tenth to quarter inch (or even less) for most other locations.
Once the trough leaves by late Monday, a cold front moves through on
Tuesday. Temperatures tumble down towards normal with most locations
settling into the 30s to low 40s Tuesday and Wednesday night. Highs
struggle to reach 60F in the Permian Basin on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving day continues to look quite nice with near normal
temperatures in the 60s during the afternoon and 40s at night. For
Friday and Saturday, temperatures rebound slightly back above
normal with the pattern remaining dry with rain chances staying
near zero.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will remain prevalent across all
terminals this afternoon and evening. Increasing low level
moisture will bring the potential for MVFR ceilings across all
area terminals prior to sunrise Sunday morning. The latest TAFs
reflect the potential for ceilings with bases between 1500-2500
ft AGL by around 11Z. These ceilings may persist over most
terminals through 18Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA and possibly a
few TSRA may develop Sunday morning, but the better potential will
be during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence was low
enough to keep convective mention out of the latter part of this
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  48  63  50 /   0  10  60  60
Carlsbad                 67  48  69  44 /   0  20  40   0
Dryden                   76  57  69  56 /   0  20  30  50
Fort Stockton            74  55  76  51 /   0  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass           60  46  61  41 /   0  10  30   0
Hobbs                    67  46  64  42 /   0  20  60  10
Marfa                    70  44  71  37 /   0  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  51  64  50 /   0  10  50  50
Odessa                   70  53  64  50 /   0  10  50  40
Wink                     70  53  70  46 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21