049
FXUS64 KMAF 170009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Low (10-20%) rain chances this evening from the Presidio Valley
  into the Trans Pecos region and far southeast New Mexico.

- A cold front arrives late Saturday, bringing near normal
  temperatures to the area Sunday.

- Brief warmup Monday before another cold front brings Fall-like
  temperatures into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough sitting over
parts of the northwestern CONUS this afternoon (centered roughly
over western portions of Wyoming). A surface low in the lee of the
Rockies has helped facilitate gusty southerly/southeasterly winds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, a disturbance
rounding the base of the main trough will aid in the development of
isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.
The best chances (10-20%) will stretch roughly from the Presidio
Valley through the Davis Mountains and into Lea County.

By Friday, another shortwave trough will begin to approach the area.
This shortwave will push a Pacific front though the region, which
will usher in drier, downsloping westerly/southwesterly winds. The
trough itself looks to move over the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. Guidance indicates as this occurs, gusty winds will develop
in the Guadalupe Mountains, though they are expected to remain well-
below warning criteria. Additionally, enough moisture should exist
in the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos early
Saturday morning to allow for some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop as the trough moves through (10-20%).
However, what moisture we do have will quickly be pushed off to the
east, and behind the trough will come much drier air. Otherwise,
temperatures remain unseasonably warm, with highs topping out in the
mid-to-upper 80s for most, with some 90s in the Lower Trans-Pecos
and along the Rio Grande. Lows in the upper 50s and low 60s can
likewise be expected for the majority of the area both Friday and
Saturday mornings. That being said, more Fall-like temperatures are
on the way soon!

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The upper-level trough moves off to the east by late Saturday
morning/early afternoon. However, breezy conditions are expected to
continue in the Guadalupe Mountains throughout the day with the
passing of a cold front. Though, winds are forecast to be well below
Advisory criteria. There may be a few remnant showers over our far
northeastern counties Saturday morning, but should be out of the
area by late morning as the trough exits to the east. Sunday morning
temperatures will be the coolest many areas have seen in a while,
with overnight lows in the 50s for most. Lows bottom out in the 40s
across portions of the northwestern Permian Basin, southeast New
Mexico, and higher terrain. Afternoon highs Sunday also take a hit
in the post-frontal airmass, with highs ranging in the mid 70s to
low 80s for most.

The cooler temperatures will be short-lived as higher heights
associated with ridging briefly returns to the area Monday. As a
result, afternoon highs are forecast to top out into the 90s for
most, except for portions of southeast New Mexico and across higher
terrain. Ensemble guidance continues to show another upper-level
trough approaching our region Tuesday, bringing a cold front along
with it. This indicates the potential for breezy conditions on
Tuesday next week. At this time, high temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday are forecast to dip back into the 70s and 80s behind the
front. Despite all of the aforementioned troughs and fronts, the
extended remains dry due to a lack of deep moisture.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Isolated TSRA have developed east of the Davis Mountains into the
Trans Pecos region early this evening. Any cell that develops will
be capable of producing brief strong/erratic gusts, frequent
lightning, and localized reductions in visibility due to heavy
rain. Will monitor trends closely for impact near KPEQ and KFST
through around 02Z or so. VFR otherwise prevails through the
period. Southeasterly to southerly winds gradually taper this
evening. Winds will shift more southwesterly to westerly late
tonight and into the day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  89  63  88 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 58  85  55  84 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  90  65  94 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            63  89  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  74  54  73 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  85  55  82 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                    54  82  53  80 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  88  63  87 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                   63  87  64  86 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                     61  88  58  86 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21