014
FXUS64 KMAF 211920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- An approaching upper-level system brings increasing chances
  (20-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through
  Sunday evening. We will be monitoring for isolated strong to
  severe storms over the eastern Permian Basin Sunday afternoon
  and evening.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Early afternoon water vapor imagery and 500 mb height analysis shows
a dry southwesterly flow aloft in place across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico well in advance of a low pressure system
spinning off the coast of southern California. Surface ridging
meanwhile generally extends from the Great Basin to west Texas.
Sunny skies are prevalent across our region today, along with cooler
temperatures and occasionally gusty westerly to northwesterly winds.

The low pressure system off the southern California coast will
gradually pivot toward northern Baja through Saturday afternoon.
Ridging aloft will generally build across the southern Plains in
advance of this feature tonight into Saturday, so we can expect dry
weather conditions to persist through Saturday afternoon. Surface
high pressure will continue to build into west Texas and southeast
New Mexico through tonight. There may be some passing high level
clouds over portions of the area tonight, but winds will become
light. Overnight low temperatures will trend close to seasonable
normals with readings in the mid 30s to mid 40s over most of the
region, except in the upper 40s to around 50 along the Rio Grande.
Highs on Saturday should once again range in the mid 60s to lower
70s over most of the area, except for warmer readings in the mid 70s
to lower 80s over the Lower Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend/along
the Rio Grande.

The upper-level low will slowly move from northern Baja into Arizona
Saturday night. Ridging aloft will shift eastward toward the
ArkLaTex region as southwesterly flow aloft increases over our
forecast area in advance of this system. An easterly to
southeasterly surface flow will set up over our region through
Saturday night, with a gradual increase in low level moisture
anticipated with surface dewpoints rising back into the 40s to lower
50s. Ascent arriving within the southwesterly flow aloft may allow
for the development of scattered rain showers over portions of
southeast New Mexico and the Guadalupe Mountains late Saturday night
into Sunday morning, with additional isolated to scattered showers
also possible over portions of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Big Bend region. NBM POPs looked a little too optimistic as usual,
but kept the best rain chances (30-50%) intact over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains, as well as for areas east
of the Pecos River after midnight Saturday night, with only a 20
percent chance over southwestern portions of our region. Weak
elevated instability could also result in an isolated thunderstorm
or two around the area late Saturday night. Overnight lows should
trend slightly warmer in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The upper-level low that is currently positioned just off the coast
of southern California is forecast to move across the Central
Rockies Sunday, placing our area under the left-exit region of the
trough and difluent flow aloft. This will bring more chances (20-
70%) of showers and thunderstorms across much of our area during the
afternoon and evening. The best chance (50-70%) of showers and
storms is currently expected to be across southeast New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin Sunday morning before tapering off from
west to east. During the afternoon and evening hours, the best
chances (50-70%) will be across eastern portions of the Permian
Basin (and to the north and east of our region), which is where the
best source of moisture, instability, and forcing for ascent should
be located ahead of a dryline. With that in mind, there is some
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across our eastern
zones Sunday afternoon and evening. Though confidence in the severe
threat for our area is low (<20%) at this time. It all really
depends upon the positioning of the dryline and upper-level trough.
These influence where the moisture, instability, and lift will be
available. Hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall appear to
be the main threats with the strongest storms. Any remaining
activity should move off to the east Sunday night.

By Monday, the aforementioned upper-level low moves northeast and
another upper low moving across the Northern Plains behind it sends
a cold front into the region late Tuesday afternoon/early evening.
As a result, some locations across our northern counties could see
overnight lows near freezing. Afternoon highs on Wednesday may even
drop into the 50s across the northern half of the CWA, with 60s to
the south. The cold front looks to be a dry one so dry conditions
are expected throughout the latter part of the extended.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  69  50  65 /   0   0  50  70
Carlsbad                 38  67  50  70 /   0   0  40  40
Dryden                   51  74  58  72 /   0  10  40  40
Fort Stockton            45  73  56  77 /   0   0  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           41  59  47  60 /   0   0  30  20
Hobbs                    36  67  47  66 /   0   0  40  60
Marfa                    36  70  44  70 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     42  70  53  67 /   0   0  40  60
Odessa                   42  70  53  67 /   0   0  40  60
Wink                     39  70  53  71 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...21