161
FXUS64 KMAF 181912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
112 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- A few isolated severe storms may occur Wednesday night, from
  the Western Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos. Large
  hail will be the main threat.

- There is a potential for flash flooding in heavier
  showers/storms across SE NM plains into Permian Basin and
  Stockton Plateau Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon.

- Strong winds over Guadalupe into Davis Mountains late Thursday
  afternoon through early Friday afternoon may create difficult
  driving conditions.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures for late week continuing
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Current satellite imagery depicts an upper-level low over the
California Coast. This system will provide active weather tomorrow
where many locations across the region are forecast to have rain
and thunderstorms. However, the weather today is going to remain
quiet with dry conditions, partly cloudy skies, and high
temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s for most. Tonight,
the upper-level system moves slightly further to the east which is
going to supply moisture aloft for high cloud cover to occur. The
cloud cover keeps temperatures warmer than previous nights with
many spots around the region reaching the low 50s to low 60s.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned system shifts more eastward. Broken
to overcast cloud coverage regulates temperatures in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Low-level moisture will also be prevalent as winds
shift easterly to southeasterly, sending the dryline further
westward. By the mid to late afternoon hours, high resolution
guidance has isolated convection developing across portions of the
Lower Trans Pecos to northeastern Permian Basin. Forecast
soundings depict record PWATs (1.25"), deep layer shear, and steep
mid-level lapse rates ( > 7 degC/km). These parameters point to a
large hail and heavy rainfall threat with the strongest storms.
Instability is going to be limited across the region due to cloud
cover throughout the morning and afternoon which may inhibit storm
development during this timeframe. By tomorrow night, the upper-
level storm system advances east of Baja California providing
sufficient lift for numerous showers and (nonsevere) thunderstorms
to occur over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. More of these
showers and storms are expected on Thursday. See the long-term for
more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

An active weather pattern late this week into this weekend
following unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather for the
last several weeks will be followed by a less active pattern, more
seasonable temperatures, but continued breezy to gusty winds at
times as the descent into meteorological winter (December 1)
continues. A significant upper storm system and accompanying
surface features developing east from the Great Basin and Desert
SW drive weather late this week into the weekend. High winds aloft
and a tight pressure gradient over the Guadalupes and Delaware
Mountains where a mountain wave signature is apparent on 700 mb
height charts will result in strong winds Thursday afternoon
through early Friday afternoon. NWP, NBM, and ensemble
probabilities indicate a high probability of gusty winds at least
35 mph over Guadalupes, Delawares, and Davis Mountains. High wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast over these regions, but for now
we have held off on issuing a High Wind Watch as winds have been
trending down. The upper storm system will also aid in continued
transport of moisture, creating a moderate to high probability
(45% to 60%) of showers/storms Thursday morning despite coverage
in CAMs remaining uncertain. Lea County, most of Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau, and Terrell County have a moderate to high
probability of 0.25" to 0.50" rainfall, with a high probability
(50% to 70%) 0.50" to 0.75" for eastern Permian Basin and a
moderate (35% to 55%) probability of higher amounts above that
easternmost Permian Basin. While rain will be tapering off from
southwest to northeast Thursday as the best lift and moisture
departs to the northeast, we cannot rule out flash flooding in
heavier showers/storms.

With CAA from strong west/northwest winds behind the Pacific cold
front, Thursday`s highs drop to the mid to upper 50s F higher
elevations, mid 60s to mid 70s F. Following the initial frontal
passage, drier air moves in by Thursday evening, resulting in dew
point temperatures settling into the he upper 20s to lower 30s F
Guadalupes and Marfa Plateau into Presidio Valley and Big Bend,
mid to upper 30s F northwest Permian Basin into western Permian
Basin, Stockton Plateau, and southeast Brewster County, with lower
to mid 40s F points east. This reduction in boundary layer
moisture enhancing overnight cooling will not be as significant as
we have seen earlier this autumn and will maintain a smaller
diurnal temperature range of 20 to 25 F rather than 25 to 30 F.
Thursday night lows across higher elevations into much of the SE
NM plains and northwest Permian Basin settle into the 30s F with
40s F elsewhere. Friday into next week, highs remain in the mid to
upper 50s F higher elevations, lower 60s F basins of Culberson
County and Marfa Plateau, mid to upper 60s F, and lower to mid 70s
F southern Rio Grande basins into southern Permian Basin, with
lows in the mid 30s F higher elevations into much of SE NM plains
and northwest Permian, and lower to mid 40s F elsewhere, although
slowly warming through the weekend as subtle ridging in the mid to
upper pattern builds. Another storm system developing from the
Great Basin and Desert SW into western and central TX and an
accompanying Pacific cold front providing lift, moisture, and
instability will again lead to a renewed push of cooler air, gusty
winds over higher elevations of the Guadalupes into surrounding
foothills and plains, and possibly some rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions and light southwesterly to variable winds are
expected to prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  74  59  71 /  10  30  70  90
Carlsbad                 54  75  52  68 /   0   0  40  70
Dryden                   61  79  61  79 /  10  30  60  70
Fort Stockton            57  76  62  77 /  10  20  40  60
Guadalupe Pass           52  64  48  58 /   0  10  30  70
Hobbs                    52  74  53  68 /  10  10  50  80
Marfa                    44  72  48  68 /   0  10  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     59  74  61  71 /  10  20  60  80
Odessa                   59  74  61  71 /  10  20  50  80
Wink                     56  75  58  71 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11