849
FXUS64 KMAF 261726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- A cold front brings near to below average temperatures today.


- Mild temperatures return Thanksgiving Day through Saturday,
  with low (10-30%) rain chances Friday afternoon.

- A stronger front yields colder temperatures by Sunday through at
  least the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery shows another clear early morning scene.
However, high temperatures today will be at least 10 to 15 degrees
cooler than yesterday in the wake of the strong cold front that
moved through late Tuesday evening into early this morning. Lower to
mid 50s F, 40s F higher elevations, 60s F Rio Grande basins into
Terrell County, and upper 60s F right along the Rio Grande from
Presidio Valley into the Big Bend are all forecast today. The colder
and drier airmass will result in dew point temperatures in the 20s
across the northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin, and 30s F to
the south, keeping boundary layer moisture low and enhancing
overnight cooling even as winds shift back to the south. This will
allow lows to fall to near to below freezing in the higher
elevations of the Marfa Plateau and surrounding foothills and
basins, northern SE NM plains into northwest Permian Basin, and
lower to mid 30s F Upper Trans Pecos, with upper 30s to lower 40s
F elsewhere.

Troughing over the central CONUS that allowed the rapid progression
of the strong cold front earlier yesterday will ease for
Thanksgiving Day as continued southerly winds are overlain by mid to
upper ridging in the upper air pattern, providing large scale
sinking motion and associated warming. As a result of WAA from
southerly winds and ridging aloft, Thanksgiving Day features a
return to milder temperatures at least 10F warmer than today north
of Rio Grande basins, 15 to 20F warmer for higher elevations, and up
to 5F warmer for Rio Grande basins. This translates to lower to mid
60s F for lower elevations north of the Stockton Plateau and
Culberson County, upper 60s to lower 70s F for Marfa Plateau into
Stockton Plateau, and 70s F for Rio Grande basins. Southerly winds
also allow dew point temperatures to recover back into the 30s and
40s F to the south and east of Guadalupes and western and northern
SE NM plains, where dew point temperatures stay in the 20s and 30s F.
This increase in boundary layer moisture inhibits overnight cooling
and keeps lows in the mid 30s F northern SE NM plains into northern
Permian Basin as well as higher elevations of Marfa Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos, and 40s F elsewhere. Increased clouds with the
more "humid" air will be followed by precipitation chances for late
week into the weekend. Given trends in temperature for the weekend
into early next week, not all of this precipitation may fall as
rain. For more details, read the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

After a quiet and mild Thanksgiving, changes begin to take shape in
our weather pattern. Overnight Thursday, flow aloft becomes zonal as
a shortwave disturbance flattens the ridge that was previously
overhead. This disturbance also leads to the development of a
surface low over the central Great Plains, which steers breezy winds
out of the south Friday afternoon. Moisture also looks to accompany
these winds, resulting in low (10-30%) rain chances over the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Temperatures early Friday morning range
within the upper 30s to upper 40s across the region, then warm into
the low 60s to mid 70s (mainly west of the Pecos River).

Temperatures trend upward Saturday ahead of a strong cold front
brought on by the aforementioned surface low and an upper trough
dropping down from Canada. Expect highs Saturday to top out
primarily in the 70s. Saturday evening, northeasterly winds pick up
as the cold front sweeps down from the Panhandle. Temperatures by
sunrise Sunday are forecast to dip into the 20s within our northern
counties, with 30s for almost everyone else. Midland may see it`s
first freeze of the season Sunday morning. Sunday`s highs will
struggle to make it out of the 40s for those east of the Pecos River
and in the higher terrain. Most areas west of the Pecos look to
generally reach the 50s Sunday afternoon, while 60s are forecast
near and along the Rio Grande. An upper-level trough also swings
from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southern Plains Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. This trough then hovers near our
region through the day Monday before shifting eastward Monday night.
Some models suggest sufficient moisture and lift to accompany this
system to result in precipitation. Meanwhile, others suggest our
area being dry-slotted. The NBM continues to show low PoPs Sunday
night through early Tuesday. Temperatures gradually rebound Monday
and Tuesday, as highs in the 50s slowly spread from southwest to
northeast each afternoon. Overnight lows Sunday night through
Tuesday night are forecast to dip into the 20s and 30s, with the
coldest temperatures overlaying our northern counties and the higher
terrain. Given the current uncertainty of whether or not
precipitation will coincide with freezing temperatures (especially
in our northern counties), we will be closely monitoring this
system as it develops.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail as low clouds from this morning start to mix
out. Southeasterly/southerly winds generally remain light (7-11 kts)
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  38  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  34  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  44  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  41  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    56  33  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  33  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     58  40  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   58  40  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     58  35  65  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13