882
FXUS64 KMAF 010645
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Warming trend through midweek before another front knocks
  Thursday`s temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (20%) rain chances Thursday; otherwise the forecast remains
  dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mesoanalysis shows a cold, port-frontal AMS anchored in West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico this morning, with a stratus deck as far
west was KHOB-KODO.  Surface winds have been slowly veering back
around to return flow, and hi-res models scatter out ceilings today,
but models have a tendency to be a bit optimistic on this, as these
post-frontal airmasses are a bit more difficult to dislodge.  For
this reason, we`ll stay a skosh cooler than NBM highs today.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft is in place over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico as another upper trough approaches the Four
Corners at 06Z.  This will drop a weak cold front into the area this
afternoon, which will assist in slightly cooler temperatures than
what models are depicting.

Tonight, surface winds are forecast to go light/variable and,
assuming skies finally do scatter out, radiational cooling will
promote another night of freezing temperatures everywhere but the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend Area, and lower Trans Pecos.

Tuesday, zonal flow develops ahead of the next trough, and leeside
troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will increase
southwest winds out west, and return flow in the east, resulting in
an increase in afternoon highs to at least ~ 2-4 F above normal. The
latest NAM even develops a mountain wave signature over the
Guadalupes late Tuesday afternoon, and this will need to be
monitored for possible high winds developing into Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Our next cold front is due to arrive Wednesday, but timing is still
to be determined. A late day arrival means highs in the 70s for most
locations while an earlier passage could keep highs mostly in the
50s. Current NBM has the front arriving after peak heating so will
stick with that for now, but the forecast could change as we get
within range of the higher resolution models. The airmass behind
this front is fairly chilly with highs only in the 40s expected
Thursday. A storm system that was forecast to bring a chance of rain
to the area is now much more progressive in the models and therefore
drier for our region. At best we could pick up some light rain, but
it`s more likely we will remain dry.

Westerly flow returns late in the week with breezy conditions
developing, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains where high
winds look possible. Downslope flow will help warm temperatures back
above normal with highs returning to the 60s/70s this weekend.
Another cold front is due to arrive early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR cigs are solidly entrenched in the Permian Basin tonight,
persisting at KMAF and KHOB. Models have been trying to scatter
them out all afternoon/evening, to no avail. Thus, we`ll keep them
in for KMAF/KHOB the rest of the night. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail next 24 hours, with clouds lifting/decreasing
throughout the forecast period. Return flow resumes overnight,
but a weak front is due into the area late Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  27  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  29  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   62  38  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  35  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  35  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  25  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  29  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     56  29  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   56  30  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     59  30  65  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...99