538
FXUS64 KMAF 301103
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
503 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Strong gap winds in the Guadalupe Mountains continue with near
  freezing temperatures for many this morning.

- The coldest day so far this season is expected today, with
  afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 40s for most.

- Rollercoaster ride of temperatures next week, with warming
  expected through midweek before another front arrives Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The strongest cold front of the fall passed through here a few hours
ago, brrrringing considerably colder temperatures to West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Latest surface observations/mesoanalysis
indicates it`s banking up against the higher terrain at 06Z. High
gap winds are likely transpiring at KGDP, and although models are a
bit warmer than earlier runs, some locations will likely have their
first freeze later this morning.  This will be from CAA alone (as
opposed to radiational cooling)...a testament to the strength of the
front.

Unfortunately, today will not see much warming under overcast skies
and continued CAA.  Today will be the coldest day this forecast, as
well as the coldest yet this fall, as highs struggle to climb to ~ 15-
20 F below climatology.

Tonight, surface winds veer back to return flow, arresting CAA, but
a freeze is still anticipated, generally along and north of I-20. A
little drizzle is possible in the Big Bend.

Monday, temperatures attempt to recover under zonal flow aloft, and
should top out on average only a couple of degrees below normal,
before a secondary, weaker cold front arrives in the late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

We`ve got quite the up-and-down week temperaturewise ahead. After
the current cold spell we will see a big warmup midweek with highs
rebounding into the 60s Tuesday and 70s Wednesday. This is all ahead
of another strong cold front expected to move through late
Wednesday. This front will drop temperatures back well below normal,
but for only for a day. A weak storm system that will take shape to
our west will help increase clouds and even add a chance (40%) for
light rain Thursday. This will keep most locations from reaching the
50 degree mark.

Westerly winds return late in the week and temperatures rebound back
into the 60s for highs. Another front, although much weaker, is due
to arrive early next week helping keep temperatures near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Strong north winds behind last night`s cold front continue to
diminish and will veer to the east through the day. MVFR cigs have
developed at KFST, but remain VFR at all other terminals. KFST
will see VFR return around midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  32  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 47  27  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   49  38  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            46  35  66  35 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           43  33  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    43  25  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  30  67  30 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     40  32  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   40  32  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     44  30  62  31 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Crane-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Ector-Loving-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-
     Reeves County Plains-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29