051
ACUS11 KWNS 161926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161926
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Areas affected...west-central Nebraska...northwest Kansas and
extreme northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 161926Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms producing damaging winds and localized hail
appear likely late this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating near the surface trough and beneath cool
midlevel temperatures has led to a very unstable air mass for this
time of year over western NE, though overall shear profiles are
weak.

Ongoing storms over northwest NE are likely to extend southward over
the next few hours. Hail may occur with initial development but the
primary risk should be severe winds.

Locally stronger shear does exist in the vicinity of far northeast
CO where surface winds are backed near the boundary and on the nose
of the low-level theta-e plume. A supercell or two may occur in this
region prior to larger-scale mergers/wind threat.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40180031 39840075 39720142 39680212 39920270 40110281
            40290280 41300205 41870189 42340191 42560175 42600145
            42740096 42480028 41809982 40949996 40180031

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN