923
ACUS11 KWNS 080047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080046
FLZ000-080245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Areas affected...West-central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 080046Z - 080245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat
will continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms continues to approach
the western coast of Florida this evening. Within this line, a few
stronger supercells have developed. The KTBW WSR-88D is sampling a
somewhat tight circulation from a supercell around 15 miles
northwest of Anna Maria Island. Expect this storm/circulation to
weaken as it moves into the cooler (upper 60sF) shelf-waters near
the coast. Even if it does persist, it will likely be undercut by
the southward moving outflow boundary within the hour which should
end the threat. Additional storms are developing southwest of this
circulation (farther away from the southward moving outflow) which
may maintain some threat for the west coast of Florida through the
evening.

Some surface based instability is present on the 00Z TBW RAOB
(~750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While weak mid-level lapse rates will
likely inhibit new deep convection inland, enough instability may
exist to support maintenance of the supercells that develop over the
Gulf. These stronger storms may pose an isolated damaging
wind/tornado threat this evening given the veered low-level wind
profile.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 12/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27868294 28058225 28078163 27838124 27528121 27338156
            27178218 27058268 27318289 27868294

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH