265
ACUS11 KWNS 092048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092047
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...parts of northern Mississippi through central
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092047Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms, including at least
short-lived supercell structures, may continue to gradually develop
through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.  It is not clear that a severe weather
watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air
which has advected across and east-southeast of the lower
Mississippi Valley, surface temperatures are warming through the
lower/mid 90s F.  Within a seasonably moist boundary layer, it
appears that this is contributing to large CAPE up to 2500-3000
J/kg, near the southern periphery of stronger west-northwesterly
mid/upper flow (including 35-45 kt around 500 mb).

Although much of the region appears south of the stronger mid/upper
forcing for ascent, deepening convection, including at least a few
attempts at sustained thunderstorm development, appear to be
underway.  With at least some further erosion of inhibition with
continuing insolation, it appears that this may continue with widely
scattered intensifying thunderstorms possible through late
afternoon.  Although low-level wind fields and hodographs are rather
weak, deep-layer shear appears supportive of appreciable mid-level
rotation and the occasional evolution of supercell structures posing
a risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34628980 34298856 33898607 32398745 33319006 34209086
            34628980