469
ACUS11 KWNS 242147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242147
LAZ000-TXZ000-242315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into extreme western
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...

Valid 242147Z - 242315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and
evening.

DISCUSSION...A round of supercell structures, with a history of
producing a tornado, has since diminished, with storms percolating
in intensity along and ahead of a surface cold front. At the moment,
it is unclear if storms will remain weak or if an uptick in
intensity (with increased tornado potential) will occur over the
next few hours. Nonetheless, the warm sector remains buoyant to the
south of a warm front, characterized by 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE driven
by 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints beneath 6+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Furthermore, 20Z mesoanalysis shows 60+ kt
southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a 30-40 kt southerly
low-level jet, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear and
sizeable elongated/curved hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH.
As such, a conditional tornado threat persists if storms can
organize, especially near the warm front, where low-level shear is
maximized.

..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30239665 31649605 31989571 32289498 32409440 32359391
            32179361 31689345 31009361 30309399 30049448 29829509
            29719548 29659584 29739613 30239665

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN