820
ACUS11 KWNS 182056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182056
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...western
Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182056Z - 182300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms, including a few
supercells are possible late this afternoon into this evening.
Should stronger storms develop and maintain, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two are possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 2100 UTC, regional satellite imagery showed
several bands of gradually deepening cumulus across portions of
southern MO and far northern AR. Developing along a subtle
confluence axis near a surface low positioned at the junction of the
MS/OH rivers, weak low-level convergence near the low and increasing
ascent ahead of a mid-level trough should continue to support
destabilization and weakening of remaining inhibition this
afternoon. Continued heating amid increasing boundary-layer moisture
(dewpoints near 60 F) is supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
sufficient for strong updrafts. A 50-60+ kt westerly mid-level jet
overspreading the northern portions of the warm sector will also aid
in enlarging low and mid-level hodographs for organized storms,
including a few supercells.

With sufficient buoyancy and vertical shear for supercells, a
conditional severe risk is apparent late this afternoon. Some CAM
guidance shows a band of broken cells spreading east/southeastward
across the MO Boot Heal into northeast AR and western TN/KY vicinity
through this evening. With the aforementioned environment conducive
for supercells, hail would be possible given stronger rotating
updrafts and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. The threat for a
tornado or two is less certain, but could be locally favored near
the warm front where the strongest low-level shear (ESRH 100-200
m2/s2) and moisture advection are expected tonight.

The primary uncertainty this afternoon and evening remains the
intensity and longevity of any surface/near-surface based storms
able to develop. With large-scale forcing passing north of the
returning warm sector, convective coverage may be somewhat sparse or
delayed until the low-level jet strengthens isentropic ascent later
this evening. Given this uncertainty, it is unclear if a WW is
needed, though the environment could support some severe threat into
tonight. Conditions will continue to be monitored closely should WW
issuance be needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 11/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37008736 37798835 38208990 38119081 36969215 36389199
            35848981 35758834 35878773 36218714 37008736

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN