886
ACUS11 KWNS 152149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152149
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into central
Missouri...northern and central Arkansas...far southwestern
Tennessee...far northwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152149Z - 152315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany
the stronger, longer-lived storm cores this afternoon into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular convection has recently intensified and
become more widespread through the afternoon, with some 40+ dBZ
echoes extending up to 50 kft per latest MRMS mosaic radar data
(especially in eastern MO). These storms percolate in intensity amid
1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along a theta-e axis, which is driven
primarily by seasonal low-level moisture and steep boundary-layer
lapse rates. Despite adequate buoyancy, vertical wind shear over the
middle MS Valley is quite poor, suggesting that storm organization
should be limited at best. While isolated damaging gusts or an
instance of marginally severe hail may occur, the severe threat
should remain sparse this afternoon into the evening hours.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...
TSA...

LAT...LON   35639405 36219414 37499392 39239333 41829278 42079228
            41959200 41559183 40409168 39879167 38929161 38079150
            37189102 36689055 36058979 35698939 35318907 34888916
            34548948 34429008 34479099 34699203 35119332 35639405

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN