634
FXUS64 KMEG 061026
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
426 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New UPDATE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Patchy dense fog will affect the Mid-South through late Saturday
  morning. A medium chance (50%) for widespread dense fog will
  occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal
  highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning
  temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, we`ll be
  back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold front
  late Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low clouds and fog has developed across the majority of the Mid-
South this morning. There are pockets of dense fog, but it is not
widespread enough to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time.
Low clouds and fog will persist through late morning. A 50%
chance for more widespread dense fog will develop late tonight
through Sunday morning as skies finally clear out and winds
remain weak.

Patchy dense fog was added to the forecast through late morning.
The need for a dense fog advisory will continue to be monitored
through the rest of the overnight period.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Upper air analysis this evening features a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through the Southwest
United States with a ridge axis along the West Coast.
Temperatures are similar if not slightly warmer than Thursday
night with late evening temperatures in the 30s as cold air
advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures relatively
steady.

Little if any change is expected in the overall pattern as
northwest flow will persist across the eastern half of the U.S.
into next week with shortwave troughs rotating through the
Mississippi Valley. The first shortwave trough and associated
cold front will move through the Mid-South Sunday into Sunday
night and another trough by late next week. Both of these troughs
are expected to have limited precipitation mitigating the threat
of wintry precipitation, especially Sunday night over northwest
Tennessee as temperatures drop towards freezing. A couple of days
of colder temperatures will follow the mild temperatures with
each frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Weak warm air advection continues to move across all terminals.
This is an ideal setup for low CIGs and potentially dense fog.
IFR CIGs and VSBYs were introduced at all sites except for JBR,
where drier air still resides. Low CIGs and VSBYs will likely
persist through mid morning on Saturday. There is a 40 to 50%
chance of both LIFR CIGs and VSBYs developing at MEM, MKL, and
TUP
over the next couple of hours as winds go calm and the low level
moisture remains trapped. Additionally, there is a 20% chance of
VLIFR CIGs near daybreak at MEM and TUP. Conditions should begin
to improve by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be light from the SW
5 kts or less through the period.

Hi-res guidance is hinting at widespread dense fog developing
near the end of this period as skies finally clear and winds go
calm.

AC3

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Mid-South through late
morning. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to
scattered showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3