057
FXUS64 KMEG 101730
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025


- Gusty winds will continue through this evening. A short-lived
Wind Advisory may be considered if sustained winds exceed 25 mph.

- Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night
through Monday night. Monday morning will be the coldest as lows
drop to the mid teens and low 20s.

- Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week,
approaching near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A potent upper level low continues to churn over the Great Lakes
region this morning, bringing Winter Storm conditions to portions
of northern CONUS. A large-scale troughing pattern is in place
with an embedded shortwave and attendant cold front trekking
across Missouri. A dry frontal passage is anticipated for the Mid-
South, with the greater impact being gusty winds. A few areas in
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel may experience
sustained winds in excess of 25 mph this afternoon. A short-lived
Wind Advisory may be considered later today if surface winds
reach this criteria. Benign weather returns Thursday and will
persist through the end of the work week.

Frigid conditions are on tap for the weekend as an Arctic cold
front pushes across the United States on Saturday. This boundary
will reach the Mid-South by midday with ample CAA taking place
overnight. Sunday morning lows will vary from north to south as
this air continues to settle into the area. For areas near
Kentucky, lows will be in the upper teens. Further south into
Mississippi, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Minimal warming is anticipated Sunday with highs ranging from the
mid 20s to upper 30s areawide. Monday morning will be the coldest
as lows fall into the mid teens to low 20s. There is a 30 percent
chance of temperatures falling below 15 degrees near the TN/KY
border at this time. Take the time now to winterize your home by
covering exposed pipes and caulking windows.

Fortunately, the brutal cold will not last long as a shortwave
pushes across the Plains on Monday. Southerly surface winds will
bring increased temperatures and moisture with afternoon highs
reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s. This warming trend will
continue through midweek with rain chances returning on Tuesday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A dry cold front has passed, marking a gradual shift to
northwesterly winds. The gradient behind the front remains tight
and thus surface winds will stay elevated with gusts around
25 kts through at least 00Z this evening. This is the main impact
of this period; ceilings are expected to remain well above VFR
criteria. As the surface high slides over the airspace overnight,
winds will quickly subside to light and variable early Thursday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Strong southwesterly winds will continue through most of the day
Wednesday, filtering in moisture to raise minimum humidity levels
to 40 to 55 percent. This pattern will generally persist through
the rest of the week before an Arctic cold front passes this
weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD