414
FXUS64 KMEG 171105
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
505 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 502 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return this week, with the potential for 1
  to 3 inches of total rainfall.

- Cooler conditions are anticipated next weekend with highs in
  the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Clear and cool conditions prevail across the Mid-South this
evening. The front has pushed well south and high pressure
dominates the TN Valley. Temps range from the mid 40s at Paris to
the mid 50s near Clarksdale. Colder locations will drop into the
upper 30s across West TN, near the TN Valley Monday morning.

An upper low currently over the Intermountain West will track
into the Plains later today while a surface low develops over
Colorado. In response, the front across the Lower MS Valley will
start to lift north. Weak overrunning across this front will
result in clouds across the Mid-South and a few light showers.
The sub-cloud airmass is very dry so this QPF will not amount to
much. Clouds and the small chances of rain will temper highs,
which will range from the low 60s along the MO/KY borders to low
70s across north MS. The Colorado low, along with the associated
mid-level trough, will track east into the Mid MS Valley by early
Tuesday with a warm front bisecting the Mid-South. The best lift
and rain chances will hug the KY/MO border, closer to the surface
low and the upper support. The warm front will lift NE of the
entire Mid-South by Tuesday afternoon with much warmer air
advecting into the region. Near record temps are likely over
parts of north MS. Winds will be gusty as well. NBM is showing a
low chance (20 percent) of gusts over 40 mph across parts of the
Delta Tuesday afternoon.

By later Tuesday night into Wednesday, the mid-level trough over
the Mid MS Valley will have pushed well east and the surface low
will become quite disorganized, leaving behind a weak stalled
boundary north of the Mid-South. Broad upper ridging will
strengthen over the Lower MS Valley. This will lead to a very warm
and mostly dry Wednesday with near record highs across at least
north MS.

A system moving out of the SW US will start spreading into the
Southern Plains on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms
quickly developing NE along the stalled boundary. This will put
the best chance for precipitation across areas north of I-40 on
Thursday with near record temps continuing across north MS. The
cold front associated with this system will push into the Mid-
South later Thursday night into Friday with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms. There is at least a small risk for
severe weather during this period though the details are not
clear this far out.

Forecast confidence beyond Friday really drops off. Models are
having trouble with the additional energy over the SW US and
northern Mexico later in the week. Some solutions keep a cutoff
low across the SW U.S. resulting in a drier weekend. Other
solutions eject the energy and continue a much wetter pattern with
a chance of heavy rainfall right through the weekend. One thing
is fairly certain, temps will trend cooler and more toward normal
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the current TAF
period. While isolated SHRA could move across the airspace, there
is not enough confidence in it reaching the surface to include at
this time. Easterly winds will become southeasterly through the
day, picking up in speed after 06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1102 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

An increasingly wet and unsettled pattern will settle over the
Mid-South this week. Fire weather concerns will be minimal
through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CMA