486
FXUS64 KMEG 271722
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Chilly weather will continue as below-normal temperatures
  persist on Thanksgiving through the Holiday weekend.

- Rain will return to the Mid-South late Saturday through Sunday
  morning. A few snowflakes are possible early Saturday.

- Significant uncertainty exists regarding a low-pressure system next
  Tuesday that could bring heavy rain or a mixed precipitation
  regime to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Surface high pressure over the Mid-South has brought drier,
cooler weather through Wednesday. This high follows a strong low
pressure over the Great Lakes, forecast to quickly move northeast
of the CONUS over the next 48 hours. Zonal flow aloft will then
prevail, allowing for our current surface high to settle in over
the southeastern CONUS and will keep the forecast cooler-than-
average through the end of the week. Lows will be in the mid to
low 30s Thanksgiving Day, dropping below freezing for most places
Friday morning while remaining precipitation-free.

By Saturday, a new disturbance will have entered the central
CONUS with a deepening surface low over the central Plains as a
low-amplitude shortwave deepens. On this upper wave`s approach,
warm advection will bring moisture poleward from the Gulf, which
will then produce our next round of rain. Low surface moisture
and large dew point depressions, as shown in model soundings,
could produce enough evaporative cooling to bring the 1000 -
700 mb profile near or below freezing. Therefore, there is a
decent chance snowflakes could fall early Saturday morning before
the background warm air advection quickly brings the profile
above freezing.

Precipitation will persist throughout the rest of Saturday and
into Saturday night as the upper wave passes through. The surface
low, now somewhere in the Midwest, will have brought a cold front
southeastward into the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Most ensemble
members in the GEFS bring this boundary south of the area by
Sunday afternoon, which would put an end to any precipitation.

Forecast confidence decreases rapidly after Sunday between two
key features: 1) the position of the cold front to our south and
2) the evolution of the upper pattern over the western CONUS.
Most ensemble members bring the front anywhere from central MS to
the Gulf Coast with a suitably cold air mass behind it for wintry
precip if some moisture were to be thrown over it. It just so
happens that a new trough is expected to traverse the CONUS early
next week, which would provide numerous lifting mechanisms to
both lift the front back north or overrun moisture above a near-
freezing airmass. Therefore, many solutions have been forecasting
freezing rain, sleet, and even snow at times in the Monday-
Wednesday time frame. However, there is still little consistency
amongst members on where these axes of wintry weather set up.
Today`s LREF probability guidance shows up to a  20%-30% for any
accumulating snow on Tuesday and 10%-20% chance for accumulating
freezing rain Monday-Wednesday, highlighting the continued lack
of confidence. Thus, it is still a bit too soon to say with any
certainty whether or not winter precipitation will occur next
week, but some kind of precipitation is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions continue. NW winds between 5 to 10 kts will become
light overnight, shifting to E/SE near the end of the current TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

No significant fire weather concerns through the forecast period.
Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent across the
area with light winds. Wetting rain chances increase Saturday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA