251
FXUS64 KMEG 180914
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
414 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A warm and humid airmass in place across the Mid-South will result
in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm today, especially northwest of I-40. Rain chances
will diminish tonight into the upcoming weekend as a strong
upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to rise into the middle to
upper 90s by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are
anticipated to increase for late weekend into early next week as a
backdoor cold front drops into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends center an upper-level ridge
over the Carolinas with a longwave trough axis extending from
Saskatchewan/Manitoba back through the Western U.S. A plume of
low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to advect up
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
show a few rain showers beginning to develop across north
Mississippi early this morning. Otherwise, relatively rain free
conditions prevail across much of the area at this moment.
Temperatures remain warm in the lower 70s areawide as of 3 AM
CDT.

Short-term model trends indicate the Mid-South will remain on the
western periphery of an upper-level ridge axis today. Isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be
possible during the day mostly northwest of I-40. Precipitable
water values in this corridor around the 90th percentile for June
may result in the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Model
soundings indicate low to mid-level dry air over Alabama will
begin to filter into the remainder of the area throughout the day,
resulting in less convective coverage than Monday.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge axis will begin to
retrograde west and strengthen for Wednesday through Saturday,
resulting in mainly rain free conditions and a return of hot
temperatures. NAEFS indicates 500/200 mb heights will be 2-3
standard deviations above normal with afternoon temperatures
approaching the middle to upper 90s for late week into the start
of the upcoming weekend. Long-term model trends show a potential
for increased rain chances for late weekend into early next week
as another back door cold front tries to drop into the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No significant impacts expected overnight. 00Z HRRR and GFS show a small
signal for SHRA after 12Z. Thunder potential remains limited, assuming
convection does not persist beyond 18Z. 00Z global models are depicting
relatively strong mid level subsidence and drying, overspread by
a relatively dense cirrus. This should limit TS potential during
the afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB