Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
358 FXUS64 KMEG 070453 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1153 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding along and north of I-40 through Tuesday morning. - A cold front will pass through Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the 70s from Wednesday through Friday. - Temperatures will warm above normal this weekend with highs reaching into the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A surface low is tracking slowly north, roughly along the MS River this evening. This system has a plume of tropical moisture associated with it and PWs well above 2 inches. This is greater than the 99.5 percentile for this time of year. Since this morning parts of east-central Arkansas have received over 6 inches of rain with much of it falling in the last 3 hours as a band of heavy rain slowly pushes north with the surface low. The surface low will track into NW TN by sunrise and then skirt east along the KY/TN border before moving into northern Middle TN/southern Ky around noon. CAMs have a good handle on the band of heavy rain which will slowly shift north and then east along the low track. QPF totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected from NE AR across the MO Bootheel into NW TN through Tuesday morning. This area has a slight risk of excessive rainfall with the potential for flash flooding through about mid-morning Tuesday. The heaviest rain will shift east with the surface low by Tuesday afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development, mainly east of the MS River, is expected as a cold front pushes through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure with dry and cool weather will return for Wednesday and continue through the end of the week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. A few upper 40s are expected along the KY/MO border on Thursday and Friday mornings. Dry weather will continue for the foreseeable future as upper ridging builds over the region and temps warm well above normal this weekend into early next week. Highs will likely be back into the mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Intermittent -SHRA will impact all terminals for the vast majority of the period as this surface low slowly rotates about the Lower MS River Valley. Most of the CAMs are simulating a persistent convective scheme very similar to what we`re seeing right now with a broad swath of sporadic showers around the center of the surface low for the next 12-18 hours. Confidence is very high for an IFR deck overnight, already materializing in some locations across east AR behind the front. Ceilings will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours and eventually get socked in to sub-1000 ft well into the mid morning hours. Due to the very slow progression of the front, these ceilings will not be quick to improve. Post-frontal stratus will likely keep CIGs at or below MVFR through at least 00Z Wed for most terminals. Winds are all over the place due to the proximity of the surface low, but the general trend is a gradual progression from southeast clocking all the way around to northerly by the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Wetting rains will continue through Tuesday. Moist fuels and above average relative humidity values will keep fuel concerns low through the remainder of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD