952
FXUS64 KMEG 190415
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Dry and mild weather is expected on Wednesday with highs from
  the upper 60s along the Kentucky and Missouri borders to around
  80 across parts of north Mississippi.

- Wet and unsettled weather will return for Thursday and Friday
  with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall through
  Friday night.

- Weekend looks mostly dry and a little cooler, though still above
  normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak cold front has dropped into northern parts of the Mid-South
this evening. A severe storm produced large hail earlier this
evening near the KY border. Storms have generally been on a
weakening trend over the last 90 mins as the airmass gradually
stabilizes. There is enough instability to support some strong
storms with small hail and gusty winds over the next couple of
hours. Storms will gradually sag south and weaken and eventually
push east of the area well after midnight.

The cold front will stall across the area on Wednesday as broad
upper ridging strengthens over the region in advance of the system
ejecting from the SW US. This will result in a dry and mild day
with a good deal of clouds. Temps will be cooler north of the
boundary with highs in the upper 60s along the KY/MO borders. Near
record highs are likely south of the boundary, especially across
north MS.

Moist, SW flow aloft will start to increase later Wednesday and
continue into Thursday as a system enters the Southern Plains.
Overrunning will develop along the stalled frontal boundary
resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading ENE into
the Mid-South. Best chances of rain through Thursday evening will
be along and north of the boundary, or roughly north of the TN/MS
state line. A cold front will push into the region on Friday and
Friday night with higher rain chances spreading over the entire
Mid-South. Severe chances look pretty meager at this point. The
upper support is rapidly weakening as it pushes into the region
and instability fields are unimpressive. The front will push east
of the region Friday night. Rainfall amounts will be lucky to
reach one inch south of the TN/MS line. Higher amounts, up to
perhaps 2 inches, will be confined to areas north of I-40.

Models continue to favor a break in activity this weekend with the
next system of the SW US/northern Mexico moving slowly and some
upper ridging building toward the Mid-South. Saturday will
probably be cloudy and damp to start. Sunday is looking decent as
the upper ridging arrives.

The system over the SW US will probably push into the region later
Monday into Tuesday with more rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Showers with a few pops of thunder will move across MKL/MEM over
the next few hours, before exiting terminals. There is still a
pretty decent signal for IFR conditions overnight and into the
morning hours as a front moves through. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail. Predominantly light southwest winds will shift
north/northeast by the end of the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

No fire weather concerns are anticipated over the next seven
days. A wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the Mid-South
during the end of the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH