940
FXUS64 KMEG 051705
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1105 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near
  normal highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday,
  returning temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday,
  we`ll be back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold
  front late Thursday.

- Other than isolated showers Sunday afternoon, dry conditions
  will prevail until at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The next seven days will bring a bit of a roller coaster trend
for temperatures, courtesy of a typically progressive early
December upper pattern.

The upper level pattern has favored a general trough / negative
upper level height anomalies over the eastern U.S., downstream of
a ridge over the desert Southwest. This general pattern will
continue, but the trajectory of the polar jet will keep Arctic
air positioned over the upper Midwest and Northeast. As a result,
any passing shortwaves and associated cold front passages through
the Midsouth will be followed by southerly return flow 24 to
48 hours later. This will result in a one to two day cooldown,
followed by one or two mild days. We will have two such frontal
passages Sunday night and late Thursday. Near or slightly above
normal temperatures will precede each of these frontal passages,
along with isolated showers.

At this time, no wintry weather appears on the horizon, as we
head to mid-December.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

IFR and MVFR CIGs are likely to persist at MEM, MKL, and TUP
through at least this afternoon. The exception will be JBR, where
VFR CIGs will persist through late afternoon as it remains in a
cooler and drier air mass.

A surface pressure trough will move into the region from the NW
late tonight and push a low stratus deck into the region. There
is a 50 to 70% chance of LIFR and VLIFR CIGs developing overnight
at MEM and MKL, with 30 to 40% chances for Additionally, hi-res
guidance is predicting a 30 to 50% of dense fog developing near
the end of the period at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than some sporadic showers on
Sunday, dry conditions prevail through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AC3