Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
625 FXUS64 KMEG 050420 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Dry conditions and above normal temperatures persist on Sunday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. - Rain chances will increase Monday through Wednesday, with isolated thunderstorms in the mix. High temperatures will generally span the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Another calm overnight period across the Mid-South, with dry conditions persisting. Will begin to see a notable pattern shift into Sunday, with moisture slowly returning to the Mid-South. By the afternoon, dew point temperatures are expected to reach back into the mid 60s, leading to more humid conditions than we have experienced lately. Sunday does appear to be the warmest day for most of the Mid-South for the next seven days, with highs temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. In the upper-levels, a positive-tilted trough axis will continue to develop across the Rockies, with a surface high pressure remaining along the east coast. This will allow a deep, moisture- rich environment from the Gulf to spread across the Mid-South through Wednesday. Precipitation should hold of until the early morning hours on Monday, with showers spreading across the area throughout the day. Highest PoPs (60-70%) appear to be Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with lingering PoPs throughout both days and the first half of Wednesday. Given the lack of any true uplift or instability, think thunderstorm activity will likely remain limited over the three day period. Could see a couple more thunderstorms on Wednesday in the presence of the frontal boundary, but still think the lack of overall destabilization will play spoiler for any organized severe weather potential. PWAT values will be in the 90th percentile, so if we were to get any destabilization some storms could produce heavy rainfall at times. However, NBM probabilities suggest only a 20-30% of locations receiving over 2 inches of rain over this 72 hour period. General consensus seems to be in the 1" to 1.5" range, with the "higher" amounts across NE AR, the MO Bootheel, and West TN. An upper-level ridge pattern will begin to build to the west of the area following Wednesday`s frontal boundary passage, leaving behind dry conditions by Thursday. Unfortunately, the frontal boundary on Wednesday does look relatively weak, only knocking high temperatures back a few degrees and remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. Ensembles favor a drier forecast through the end of the week and into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR and light SE winds will continue overnight. There is a slightly tighter low level pressure gradient, aiding slightly stronger winds above the shallow nocturnal inversion. KNQA and KGWX VAD wind profilers showed easterly winds of 20-25KT at FL010. This should provide sufficient mixing to limit fog potential around MKL and the other smaller terminals. Increased low level moisture should result in a SCT BKN cumulus field Sunday afternoon. 00Z guidance indicates the chances for any preceding MVFR deck in the morning remain low. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH values are expected to remain above 40% on Sunday across the area, with rain chances increasing across the Mid-South Monday through Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB