554
FXUS64 KMEG 040415
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest
  chances across north Mississippi. There is a low chance (20%)
  of light freezing rain along the I-40 corridor Thursday
  afternoon.

- A chance (less than 40%) of a light wintry mix is expected
  Thursday night into early Friday morning north of I-40, mainly
  impacting bridges and elevated surfaces.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The first of two features in the near term will start making its
way into the region from the ArkLATex during the overnight
period. This initial push is most likely going to be just rain,
considering it will stay confined to north Mississippi where
temperatures will be sitting a few degrees above freezing aided
by thick cloud cover. The next push from a more dynamic shortwave
system will start as early as noon on Thursday. This second
system raises a few more questions about precipitation type and
impacts.

Digging into the CAMs, point soundings suggest a very shallow
warm nose between 700-850 mb during the onset of precip Thursday
afternoon. This will make or break precipitation types,
especially because the surface temperatures will be hovering at
or just above freezing along the I-40 corridor for most of the
afternoon. By the time sunset rolls around, the changeover line
from a rain/snow mix to just rain will most likely dip a little
farther south. Since ground temperatures have been relatively
warm, snow is not likely to accumulate tomorrow even in the
northernmost counties. The biggest impact will be slick roads
from a light dusting of snow, especially on bridges. Elevated
surfaces and sidewalks may also become slick, so use extra
caution both walking and driving.

It`s worth noting that the forecast is trending away from
freezing rain altogether. The latest probabilities for even a
light glaze of ice (0.01") are only around 20% for the chunk of
the CWA just north of I-40. This change is most likely due to the
column`s warm layer not being stout enough to fully melt the ice
crystals on the way down. As such, no Winter Weather Advisory was
issued with this forecast package. Regardless, roads may still
suddenly become slick with rain while temperatures are near
freezing. Precip with this shortwave will come to a close no
later than sunrise Friday morning.

Moving into the weekend, a very weak frontal boundary will
support a slight chance (15-20%) of showers on Sunday.
Temperatures will be back in the 40s and 50s by this point so
winter weather is not a concern over the weekend. Monday and
Tuesday finally dry out with high pressure at the surface after
the weak cold front finally passes. We end up back in a cool,
active, northwesterly flow regime by midweek with another shot at
rain starting Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR cloud deck currently resides across western portions of the
airspace and is expected to expand eastward over the next few
hours. Still some uncertainty with the timing, but think MEM will
drop to around to after 04Z with MKL following by 08Z. Will
likely be a quick drop to IFR thereafter. Leaned a bit more
pessimistic with the cigs and do not have improvements for most
of the area through the end of the TAF period. Variable winds
will go northerly by around 08Z, picking up to around 8 to 10 kts
by midday. Precipitation into tomorrow remains a bit of a
question mark with the system, so have left as PROB30s for most
MEM/TUP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1012 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA