048
FXUS64 KMEG 180446
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return this week, with the potential for 1
  to 2 inches of total rainfall through this weekend. Most rain
  will fall after midweek.

- Cooler conditions are anticipated next weekend with highs in
  the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low pressure is situated over the Central Plains this evening
with a warm front extending southeast into the Lower MS Valley. A
weak shortwave that had generated a few showers over West TN this
evening is quickly moving east. The last of its associated
showers are crossing the TN River into Middle TN. Temps range from
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Readings will fall to around 50 by
Tuesday morning along the TN River where the airmass is dry and
winds are lighter. Temps will level out across the Delta thanks to
steady south winds.

Low pressure will track to the Mid MS Valley by early Tuesday and
into the OH Valley by Tuesday evening. Most of the showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system will remain north of the
KY/MO/TN border. Northern parts of the Mid-South could see
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight
through about noon Thursday as the warm front lifts through. Much
warmer air will flood into the Mid-South on gusty SW winds. Wind
gusts above 30 mph will be common Tuesday afternoon, especially
across the Delta. Values should remain below Wind Advisory
criteria though. Near record temps are expected across north MS.

As the surface low moves across KY Tuesday night, a weak cold
front will sag into the Mid-South. Latest CAMS show isolated to
scattered convection developing along this feature during the
evening, continuing into the overnight hours. Forecast soundings
indicate some elevated instability and a little shear. Boundary
layer moisture quality is pretty poor and lift is weak so the
severe threat is minimal both worth watching.

Upper ridging will strengthen on Wednesday ahead of the next
system. The weak cold front will become a stalled boundary across
the Mid-South. Temps will be cooler toward the KY/MO border and
very warm south of the boundary, across north MS, where record
highs will likely be challenged.

The next system will exit the SW US on Thursday with moist SW
flow increasing across the Mid-South. Expect overrunning to
develop along the stalled frontal boundary that will start
lifting north as a warm front. Numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop along that frontal boundary across
mainly areas along and north of I-40 Thursday into Thursday night.
The cold front will push into the region on Friday with more
showers and thunderstorms. A severe threat could develop depending
on timing and how the instability fields unfold. The system seems
to be favoring a more progressive evolution so heavy rainfall
looks like less of a problem. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches are expected with higher amounts north of I-40.

Latest models are settling on the next bit of energy moving into
the SW later this weekend remaining cutoff this weekend and
ejecting east more slowly. This should result in some upper
ridging developing across the Southern Plains and possibly a dry
and seasonable weekend across the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Gusty southwest winds will remain the primary concern this TAF
issuance as the pressure gradient ahead of a low pressure system
tightens. Terminals will see afternoon wind gusts up to 27 kts.
LLWS will continue to impact JBR/MEM/MKL overnight along a
southwesterly LLJ. Isolated showers will move, west to east,
across areas north of the Tennessee and Mississippi state line
tomorrow morning and evening. Confidence was only confident enough
for PROB30s across TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail, though
periodic lowering to MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out as
showers move through.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1046 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

An increasingly wet and unsettled pattern will prevail over the
Mid-South this week. Fire weather concerns will be minimal through
the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH