Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
559 FXUS64 KMEG 141300 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 800 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 757 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide limited relief from the drought conditions late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across areas mainly north of I-40. Otherwise, hot and dry conditions will persist across the Mid-South through mid-week with highs in the 90s. - Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to lack of precipitation and prolonged heat. This also raises wildland fire concerns through mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 757 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Based on the latest radar trends, bumped up PoPs along the TN River through late morning to account for shower activity. Coverage isn`t particularly high, but high enough to move into the slight chance (20%) range. The rest of the forecast is on track with mainly hot and dry conditions this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s. AC3 && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 00Z upper air analysis features an Omega block centered over the Mississippi Valley, with upper-level troughs along both the East and West Coast of the United States. A few high clouds are producing mostly clear skies across the Mid-South late this evening with temperatures mostly in the lower to middle 70s. Latest short-term model trends sufficient shear and instability will be present for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid-South mainly Sunday evening, especially north of I-40. The main threat will be localized heavy rainfall for areas that are fortunate to receive any rain as precipitable water values will be around 1.7 inches. Otherwise, rain chances will remain hard to come by across the area until the blocking pattern breaks down. Long-range ensembles indicate the Omega Block will break down by late week, with a modest increase in shower and thunderstorm chances returning for Thursday and Friday. However, any appreciable rain to alleviate the moderate to severe drought conditions across the Mid-South is not expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions and light and variable winds will persist through the period as upper level high pressure remains in place. Hi-res model guidance brings scattered -SHRAs and isolated -TSRAs into the eastern sites near the end of the period as a weak warm front moves into the area. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 An elevated fire danger will continue across the area through at least Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values will average around 30 percent. However, 20 foot winds are expected to remain light and variable. Chances for wetting rains will increase to 20-30 percent Thursday and Friday as an upper-level ridge weakens across the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3