692
FXUS64 KMEG 241205
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on
Monday,
  lasting into Tuesday. A few storms may become strong to severe
  Tuesday afternoon.

- Sunny conditions will return by Wednesday and last through most
  of Friday. High temperatures will generally remain in the 50s,
  with near to below freezing temperatures on Thanksgiving
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1054 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As of 10 PM, surface observations depict areas of dense fog along
and north of the I-40 corridor. Degraded visibilities will expand
slightly south tonight, but should remain north of the TN/MS
border. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10AM.

An unsettled weather pattern will emerge today as a large upper
level low treks across the Plains, bringing showers and
thunderstorms back to the Mid-South late this afternoon. A
Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for portions of north
Mississippi today. However, the severe weather parameter space is
lacking sufficient moisture and destabilization. In addition, the
00Z HREF paints a less than 5 percent chance of overlapping
severe ingredients through this evening. The more likely
precipitation mode today will be a large rain shield with
embedded, non-severe thunderstorms. This activity will persist
through the overnight hours, eventually exiting the area early
Tuesday.

Severe weather chances are increasing for Tuesday as the
aforementioned system ejects a cold front into the Mid-South. The
precise location of a corresponding warm sector will vary
depending on how quickly the front moves into the area. The RRFS
depicts about a 40 percent chance of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in
northeast MS by Tuesday afternoon. At this time, dewpoints will
surge into the low and mid 60s. If storms fire in this region,
damaging winds and large hail cannot be ruled out. However, the
greater severe risk does appear to be further southeast into
Alabama. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for
Tuesday.

A cold and dry Thanksgiving is on tap for the Mid-South as a
reinforcing front ushers in a Continental Polar airmass on
Wednesday. Both Thursday and Friday mornings will feature
freezing temperatures for the majority of the area, with highs
struggling to reach 50 degrees on either day. Unfortunately, the
cold weather will not stick around for long as a shortwave
arrives next weekend, bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low stratus and fog will continue to affect JBR this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this
afternoon at TAF sites. Rain showers will develop into tonight
and increase in coverage as a warm front approaches the area.
Confidence in thunderstorm development remains between 20-
30 percent as instability is expected to remain poor and elevated
at best. Due to the marginal instability, thunder mention has
been limited to MEM and TUP this evening and is reflected as a
PROB30. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR conditions
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal through midweek as
MinRH values remain above 40 percent. Wetting rains will return
today and last into Tuesday evening. Dry and cool conditions
return Wednesday, but 20ft winds will remain light.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC