554
FXUS64 KMEG 161126
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
526 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through the weekend.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return this week, with a potential for 1 to
  3 inches of total rainfall.

- Cooler conditions are anticipated by next weekend with highs in
  the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

As of 10PM, a cold front remains situated just northwest of the
Mid-South. This boundary will push through the region overnight,
bringing dry air and cooler temperatures. Dewpoints on Sunday
will decrease dramatically with most areas falling to the 30s by
the evening hours. High temperatures will be slightly cooler in
response to this FROPA: in the 60s and 70s.

Rain chances will increase on Monday as a shortwave moves across
the Central Plains, bringing elevated moisture to the Mid-South.
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through
Wednesday, though coverage will be isolated in nature. A sharp
warming trend will be evident through Thursday with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs approaching
record territory (81F) are expected on Wednesday, with the
current forecast at 80 degrees for Tupelo. Anomalously warm
temperatures will persist until the end of the week.

A more progressive synoptic pattern will emerge on Thursday as a
longwave trough and attendant cold front eject from the Desert
Southwest. Poor run-to-run consistency regarding the progression
of this system is lowering confidence for severe storms. In
addition, boundary-parallel flow will favor more training
convection, leading to a greater risk of heavy rainfall. For now,
the latest guidance keeps rainfall totals under two inches
through Friday. This is subject to change as the event draws
near. Once the aforementioned front swings through the Mid-South
on Friday, much cooler temperatures will overspread the area with
highs on Saturday in the 60s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR forecast through the period at all terminals. Scattered to
broken VFR clouds are currently present along a cold-frontal
boundary across northern MS, stretching east and west into AL and
AR respectively. Cloud cover will diminish through this morning as
the front progresses south with northerly winds taking over behind
it. Winds will then gradually veer to more of an easterly
direction after 00z into the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A wet and unsettled pattern will begin on Monday, bringing daily
chances for wetting rains. Fire weather concerns will be minimal
through the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB